It is easier for Serbia to get a mid-table result in Final than actually qualify to it.
This is the story of their life for the past decade with the exception of Konstrakta (3rd) back in '22.
In the other seven attempts, Serbia had only one non-qualification ('17 - 11th) and the six qualifications came with a 7th, an 8th, two 9th and two 10th places!
The most interesting fact for Serbia in the Semi - Finals era is that they have never finished lower than 11th!
This will be the moto this year as well for Serbia and they have their own song title giving them courage. 'Ramonda' is a small flower that grows even in the harshest environments with no water or sun at all. It's one of the rarest plants that could come back in life with a drop of water even when it is completely dehydrated.
It is also the symbol of the Serbian army that lost the majority of its forces back in World War I but revived again from its ashes, which might be the inspiration for this entry.
Enough with history and botanology. I just wanted to stress out that Serbia could actually make it again despite the fact that is performing in slot #2.
'Ramonda' is a beautiful slightly atypical Balkan ballad beautifully performed by Teya Dora. It does have a slow build up which is its main defect but the final minutes does deliver, being a bit repetitive though.
There is the danger for people to mentally check out before that part, however if the staging will be similar to Pze24, then we might be talking for one of the most effective backdrops with the ramonda flower rising in the end giving a moment similar to Jamaala's tree back in '16.
In order for Serbia to qualify from that first part, one of Ireland and Cyprus must fail to qualify. Ireland feels like the safest option but then stats come in play and there is no precedent in the producers' era where the first three songs performing in a Semi - Final all qualified to the Final.
Serbia's path to qualification means that they have to outperform Cyprus.
The good news is that Serbia has some friends in the Semi that Cyprus is missing and that might be a good place to start from.
If they make it to the Final, the Juries and the diaspora will be enough for a mid table result and with a good running order that could become a Top-10 result which is the absolute ceiling for this entry.
Serbia is the definition of borderline again and I am leaning on qualification for the moment.
It reminds me of...
Bosnia '09, '12 (Q)
Televoting Potential: 7/10
Jury Potential: 8/10
Staging Potential: 8/10
Momentum: 7/10
My Opinion: 8.5/10
Total: 38.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1%-0.5%
Best case scenario:
Top-10
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 45-75
Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 35-125 - Total: 110-300
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Serbia qualifying as 10th, just by a point and then finishing 10th in the Final, thanks to the Juries and friends.
Its qualification odds are very short for the moment though.
You can hear my thoughts about Serbia in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05
No comments:
Post a Comment