Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Serbia

  

Mila - Princ

If there is one nation that is very stable in what they are delivering in Eurovision Semi-Finals that is Serbia.

The grand majority of their qualifications came finishing 8th-10th. They got the last ticket in their previous two attempts and they might go for a third time lucky this year.

'Mila' is the definition of a classic Balkan ballad, that feels a bit outdated but is performed exceptionally by Princ. Serbia will be in the second half of Semi - Final 2, where there are only two male artists (Princ, Adonxs) and many up-tempo entries. With the majorities of the other slow-tempo entries on the other half, they do have the best possible draw to maximize their chances for qualification.

Serbia has also a guaranteed head start of 18-24 points coming from Montenegro and Austria alone and it will not be difficult for them to find 20-30 points more to secure qualification.

Being in the Final, does give them an extra boost with the Jury score, assuming that Serbia will be near or inside the Top-10 because of the song's nature and some friendly Juries. 

The Public vote appeal is dubious but that's what the friends are for and the ex-Yugoslavs with the addition of Austria and Switzerland will be enough to secure anything between 30-50 points that could be enough for a left hand side result. 

If their Jury score reaches the 80-100 points threshold, Serbia might have a decent chance to finish in Top-10. If they fail to catch fire a classic 15th-20th result will be waiting for them. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Serbia will qualify to the Final, finishing higher than 10th and then get a middle table score with the Juries and Public vote, with enough points to finish 13th. 

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 8.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 6.5/10

My Opinion: 7.5/10

Total: 37/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

Left-hand side result

Worst case scenario:

NQ 

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 40-70

F: J: 60-120 - PV: 25-60 - Tot: 85-185

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Serbia miss the Final for the first time since 2017?

You can hear my thoughts about Serbia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Serbia

 

First Thoughts:

It is easier for Serbia to get a mid-table result in Final than actually qualify to it.

This is the story of their life for the past decade with the exception of Konstrakta (3rd) back in '22.

In the other seven attempts, Serbia had only one non-qualification ('17 - 11th) and the six qualifications came with a 7th, an 8th, two 9th and two 10th places!

The most interesting fact for Serbia in the Semi - Finals era is that they have never finished lower than 11th!

This will be the moto this year as well for Serbia and they have their own song title giving them courage. 'Ramonda' is a small flower that grows even in the harshest environments with no water or sun at all. It's one of the rarest plants that could come back in life with a drop of water even when it is completely dehydrated.

It is also the symbol of the Serbian army that lost the majority of its forces back in World War I but revived again from its ashes, which might be the inspiration for this entry.

Enough with history and botanology. I just wanted to stress out that Serbia could actually make it again despite the fact that is performing in slot #2.

'Ramonda' is a beautiful slightly atypical Balkan ballad beautifully performed by Teya Dora. It does have a slow build up which is its main defect but the final minutes does deliver, being a bit repetitive though.

There is the danger for people to mentally check out before that part, however if the staging will be similar to Pze24, then we might be talking for one of the most effective backdrops with the ramonda flower rising in the end giving a moment similar to Jamaala's tree back in '16.

In order for Serbia to qualify from that first part, one of Ireland and Cyprus must fail to qualify. Ireland feels like the safest option but then stats come in play and there is no precedent in the producers' era where the first three songs performing in a Semi - Final all qualified to the Final. 

Serbia's path to qualification means that they have to outperform Cyprus. 

The good news is that Serbia has some friends in the Semi that Cyprus is missing and that might be a good place to start from.

If they make it to the Final, the Juries and the diaspora will be enough for a mid table result and with a good running order that could become a Top-10 result which is the absolute ceiling for this entry. 

Serbia is the definition of borderline again and I am leaning on qualification for the moment.

It reminds me of...

Bosnia '09, '12 (Q)

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 8/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 38.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 45-75

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 35-125 - Total: 110-300

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Serbia qualifying as 10th, just by a point and then finishing 10th in the Final, thanks to the Juries and friends.

Its qualification odds are very short for the moment though.

You can hear my thoughts about Serbia in the Eurovision podcast @TalkAboutThings  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things Eurovision 2024 Episode 05

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Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Serbia

 

First Thoughts:

Serbia is creating of school of extravagant but cool entries that are testing the waters in Eurovision.

Last year was a huge success and the fellow Serbians decided to go with the 'If ain't broke don't fix it approach' .

'Samo mi se spava' could be a second in a row Top-10 entry with the Televoting. 

The main concern here are the vocal abilities in live. There is time to polish the choreo and improve the vocals.

The first task is to qualify to the Final, but I reckon this is a done deal. If Juries recognize the artistic quality of the entry and Serbian diaspora do the usual thing, Serbia could potentially enter the Top-10.

One to watch out.

It reminds me of...

Lithuania '21, Portugal '19, Iceland '17, Germany '16

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 8/10

Momentum: 7.5/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 38.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.25%

Best case scenario:

Top-10

Worst case scenario:

16th-22nd

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

70% to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Serbia qualifying again to the Final and ending up in the middle of the table. It could grow between Semi-Final and Final and Serbia could find a momentum that might lead in Top-10

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 3. Serbia...est equus obscurus

 Qualifying Record: 9/12

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 5/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 3 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ