If there is one nation that is very stable in what they are delivering in Eurovision Semi-Finals that is Serbia.
The grand majority of their qualifications came finishing 8th-10th. They got the last ticket in their previous two attempts and they might go for a third time lucky this year.
'Mila' is the definition of a classic Balkan ballad, that feels a bit outdated but is performed exceptionally by Princ. Serbia will be in the second half of Semi - Final 2, where there are only two male artists (Princ, Adonxs) and many up-tempo entries. With the majorities of the other slow-tempo entries on the other half, they do have the best possible draw to maximize their chances for qualification.
Serbia has also a guaranteed head start of 18-24 points coming from Montenegro and Austria alone and it will not be difficult for them to find 20-30 points more to secure qualification.
Being in the Final, does give them an extra boost with the Jury score, assuming that Serbia will be near or inside the Top-10 because of the song's nature and some friendly Juries.
The Public vote appeal is dubious but that's what the friends are for and the ex-Yugoslavs with the addition of Austria and Switzerland will be enough to secure anything between 30-50 points that could be enough for a left hand side result.
If their Jury score reaches the 80-100 points threshold, Serbia might have a decent chance to finish in Top-10. If they fail to catch fire a classic 15th-20th result will be waiting for them.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Serbia will qualify to the Final, finishing higher than 10th and then get a middle table score with the Juries and Public vote, with enough points to finish 13th.
Televoting Potential: 7.5/10
Jury Potential: 8.5/10
Staging Potential: 7/10
Momentum: 6.5/10
My Opinion: 7.5/10
Total: 37/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1% - 0.2%
Best case scenario:
Left-hand side result
Worst case scenario:
NQ
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 40-70
F: J: 60-120 - PV: 25-60 - Tot: 85-185
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Serbia miss the Final for the first time since 2017?
You can hear my thoughts about Serbia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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