Iceland is a country that loves creating streaks of qualifications and non-qualifications:
'05-'07: NQ / '08-'14: Q / '15-'18: NQ / '19-'22: Q
'23-'24: NQ...
I do have a suspicion that the NQ streak might continue this year as well, with Iceland performing in the first half of the first Semi-Final along with the likes of Estonia, Sweden, Ukraine, Poland, countries that are destined to grab the majority of points.
Væb, aka the Icelandic Jedward, will try to bring their energy on stage with a happy dance along entry that would suit better Eurovision Junior or Ireland or both...
This is a potential opener for the Semi but I do fear that Iceland will get lost with so many stronger entries coming after them. They do have some friends (Sweden, Norway) that could guarantee 10-15 points but I struggle to see where they can find the rest of the 30-35 points needed for the qualification.
There is no target audience that would vote for this one, maybe with the exception of kids, but Sweden takes over that demographic as well.
Overall, this is a better entry than their previous two but still lacks the quality to secure qualification.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Iceland finishing 12th-14th in the Semi - Final.
Televoting Potential: 6.5/10
Jury Potential: 2/10
Staging Potential: 6/10
Momentum: 3/10
My Opinion: 3/10
Total: 20.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.01% - 0.02%
Best case scenario:
Qualification for the Final
Worst case scenario:
Last in Semi - Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 15-45
F: J: 0-10 - PV: 10-20 - Tot: 10-30
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Iceland a certain non-qualifier or still in the mix for qualification?
You can hear my thoughts about Iceland in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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