Portugal's Renaissance in Eurovision circle is taking a break this year in terms of successful results.
I do think that they missed the plot at one point during their national final with the jurors trying really hard to sabotage any entry that had some/any public vote potential.
As a result NAPA will represent Portugal this year, despite finishing 2nd in the Public vote and 4th with the Juries in Festival da Canção.
'Deslocadoº is about people leaving their homeland to go and live elsewhere and expresses their sorrows and nostalgia for back home. A universal message for sure but most probably will go unnoticed by the international audience.
In a 50-50 Semi - Final this entry could have been a surprise qualifier but I doubt they will have any luck now that they are performing right after Sweden.
They will heavily rely on their diaspora to collect any points and they might get a few from countries like Spain, Switzerland but I am not confident that these will be high marks to reach the qualification threshold and let's not forget that Portugal traditionally struggles with the Public vote.
If a miracle happens and they qualify, they will get a few Jury points just to avoid Bottom-3.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
Portugal finishing near the bottom of the Semi - Final receiving 15-20 points in total.
Televoting Potential: 5/10
Jury Potential: 6.5/10
Staging Potential: 6/10
Momentum: 3/10
My Opinion: 6.5/10
Total: 27/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.001%
Best case scenario:
Qualification to the Final
Worst case scenario:
Bottom-3 in Semi - Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 25-50
F: J: 20-45 - PV: 5-25 - Tot: 25-70
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Portugal doomed or their diaspora will pull a miracle to save them?
You can hear my thoughts about Portugal in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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