Lithuania is quietly building a great qualification streak (currently 4 Qs) in the '20s, which is also the longest in their history.
'Tavo Akys' is one of the most interesting entries of the year serving a genre (grunge indie) that we rarely see in Eurovision but it definitely has an audience and could do well throughout the continent.
Qualification is not in question here. The main goal for Lithuania is to reach the Top-10, something that they have achieved only 3 times in their 24 participations. The Lithuanian diaspora is always there to support their country and the few allies could give them the ammo that they need to reach the 150+ points to get there.
In my opinion, Lithuania will be a Top-10 entry in the Public vote and I do believe that a mid-table to Top-10 result with the Juries is also achievable. The song is not aggressive to be marked down and the vocals are in place as well. This is a genre that could perform really well in Eastern and Central Europe.
Lithuania has been the country whose televote score was supressed the most by the Ukrainian inflated numbers and maybe this is the time to get back some of these points.
8th to 12th is where I currently have Lithuania in my rankings.
Lithuania finishing 4th-5th in the Semi - Final, which is full of friends and diaspora and then achieve a left hand-side result finishing 10th.
Televoting Potential: 8/10
Jury Potential: 7/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 8/10
My Opinion: 9/10
Total: 39.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1% - 0.5%
Best case scenario:
Top-10
Worst case scenario:
17th-19th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 80-110
F: J: 40-70 - PV: 60-120 - Tot: 100-190
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could Lithuania be the shocker Top-10 entry of the Final?
You can hear my thoughts about Lithuania in the 4th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
No comments:
Post a Comment