I believe this is the year that the inflated Ukrainian public vote numbers are returning to normality. Ukrainian diaspora and a few friends will always be there to support them and it remains to be seen how loyal the diaspora is when their country is sending a non-competitive entry.
Vidbir '25 has been underwhelming which might not be a coincidence after what happened last year in Eurovision and the treatment that Ukraine had from EBU, that used the running order in the Final to make clear that Ukraine winning is not something they are looking forward to.
Ukraine might have decided to tone it down a bit and experiment sending an entry that has an artistic merit but is not suitable for a Contest environment. But if there is one country that could get every inch of potential out of their entry with the staging that is Ukraine.
Ziferblat reminds me of Lake Malawi and I expect from them a similar result reversing the Jury score with the Public vote one. I expect Juries to be more hesitant voting for them and I still expect them to reach a three digit number with the Public vote that could secure them the Top-10. If 'Bird of pray' was representing any other country its place would have been somewhere between 18th-24th.
This is Ukraine we are talking about and qualification should not be an issue. Making it to the final and then heavily boosted by the Ukrainian diaspora, Ukraine will make a run to secure the Top-10. Currently have them 9th-11th.
Televoting Potential: 8.5/10
Jury Potential: 5/10
Staging Potential: 7.5/10
Momentum: 3/10
My Opinion: 4/10
Total: 28/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.1% - 0.2%
Best case scenario:
7th-8th
Worst case scenario:
14th-17th
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 50-75
F: J: 25-75 - PV: 80-120 - Tot: 105-195
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is there an actual chance for Ukraine to finish out of the Top-10 for the first time since 2018?
You can hear my thoughts about Ukraine in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
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