Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Ukraine

 

Bird of pray - Ziferblat

I believe this is the year that the inflated Ukrainian public vote numbers are returning to normality. Ukrainian diaspora and a few friends will always be there to support them and it remains to be seen how loyal the diaspora is when their country is sending a non-competitive entry.

Vidbir '25 has been underwhelming which might not be a coincidence after what happened last year in Eurovision and the treatment that Ukraine had from EBU, that used the running order in the Final to make clear that Ukraine winning is not something they are looking forward to.

Ukraine might have decided to tone it down a bit and experiment sending an entry that has an artistic merit but is not suitable for a Contest environment. But if there is one country that could get every inch of potential out of their entry with the staging that is Ukraine.

Ziferblat reminds me of Lake Malawi and I expect from them a similar result reversing the Jury score with the Public vote one. I expect Juries to be more hesitant voting for them and I still expect them to reach a three digit number with the Public vote that could secure them the Top-10. If 'Bird of pray' was representing any other country its place would have been somewhere between 18th-24th. 

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is Ukraine we are talking about and qualification should not be an issue. Making it to the final and then heavily boosted by the Ukrainian diaspora, Ukraine will make a run to secure the Top-10. Currently have them 9th-11th. 

Televoting Potential: 8.5/10

Jury Potential: 5/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 3/10

My Opinion: 4/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 0.2%

Best case scenario:

7th-8th

Worst case scenario:

14th-17th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 50-75

F: J: 25-75 - PV: 80-120 - Tot: 105-195

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is there an actual chance for Ukraine to finish out of the Top-10 for the first time since 2018?

You can hear my thoughts about Ukraine in the 3rd episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts  Spotify

Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Ukraine

 

First Thoughts:

Vidbir loves drama and 2024 was no exception. A broken voting app was the reason it took almost 20 hours longer to confirm that Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil will represent Ukraine to Eurovision with 'Teresa & Maria'.

It has been the favorite since the day we have heard the songs and won televote by a landslide.

This is the first entry of the year that is considered a contender and currently leads the market, dropping as low as 3.15, now hovering around 4.00.

There is not much to comment on the Vidbir performance because I am sure that Ukraine will have a different and better staging for the contest.

Based on what we have seen this Saturday this feels more like a Top-3/6 song than a real contender.

But as I mentioned before, if there is one country that knows what to do on Eurovision stage that is Ukraine and they do need this entry to remind Europe that they are still in a war and need their help.

'Teresa & Maria' does provide the ground for a big moment on stage that could be decisive for a Eurovision win.

Ukraine has the televote power to be in Top-3 or higher, provided they improve their staging and if they can be inside or very close to Juries' Top-5 then anything could happen.

We are still very early in the season and none of the powerhouses has a song yet, but for the moment this is the one to beat, but does not shout winner yet.

I would be surprised if they fail to finish lower than Top-6, especially when they did that last year with an underwhelming entry. 

Winning is a tough ask but I reckon they would be happy with a Top-3 result either way and this is probably where they will be in the end.

It reminds me of...

 Ukraine '16 (Q) - (Win)

Televoting Potential: 9.5/10

Jury Potential: 7/10

Staging Potential: 9.5/10

Momentum: 8/10

My Opinion: 8/10

Total: 42/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

5% - 10%

Best case scenario:

Winner

Worst case scenario:

7th-8th

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 140-170

Final: Js: 75-175 - TV: 175 -300 - Total: 250-475

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Ukraine will be the elephant in the room for a third year in a row. Last year they have chosen music over politics and they managed to finish sixth with an entry that before the war would have finished 12th-18th.

The diaspora and the allies will be there to secure enough Televote points to be in Top-3 and the big question mark are the Juries. 

The song has nothing that would force them to punish it, but they might be tempted to ignore them just to balance things out and make sure that we won't have a second Ukrainian win in a three year span.

3rd or 4th feels like the place they will land.

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression - Ukraine

First thoughts:

Tvorchi was my fourth or fifth favorite to win Vidbir 2023, but you never know with Ukraine...Maybe we have the first Vidbir winner since 2018 that will represent the country in Eurovision.

Heart of Steel is a typical host entry, where the broadcaster makes everything in their power to avoid winning again. 

If this were any other country's entry for this year, I would expect a result like the host entries from 2017 to 2021, Bottom-5 or near there. But we are talking about Ukraine which is still in war and has achieved an amazing result last year, mostly because of that. They currently have the biggest diaspora in Europe and many friends and allies that would show their support by voting for them in Televoting and Juries.

It is exceedingly early to tell how the situation in Ukraine will be in May and this is a deciding factor for Ukraine's performance regarding the amount of sympathy votes. Which brings us to the subject of this article...

Would you recognize Heart of Steel as the Ukrainian entry if you did not know the country it comes from? It is a contemporary entry, Ukraine has an amazing track record in staging and will have support from diaspora and friends, but this song has no winner vibes at all and no identity. The melody is rather forgettable, and a serious downgrade compared to the recent Ukrainian entries. It will seriously test the theory that Ukraine can win the contest again no matter what they send. 

Is Ukraine signaling that they are preparing for the next day? Are they opening themselves to the world showing that they have more than folklore songs? It looks like it. There were other entries that would do better with the sympathy vote and would play the 'we are in a war card' but public and jury have chosen the difficult path.

It reminds me of...

Belgium '22

Televoting Potential: 8/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 8.5/10

Momentum: 10/10

My Opinion: 6.5/10

Total: 39.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.5%-3%

Best case scenario:

Win if war is still on and high on the agenda

Worst case scenario:

Right hand side of the scoreboard if war is over and news have moved on

What do I see in my crystal ball?

5th-12th if the war is still on, 12th-20th if the war is over by May (I truly hope it does)

Eurovision 2022 - Semi Final 1 - 6. Ukraine...мама україна

Qualifying Record: 12/12

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/4

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 12 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ