Eurovision 2026 - Semi Final 1 - Montenegro: Same old, same old...

 

Montenegro is the last bastion of resistance against qualification under the 50/50 system that was introduced in 2016 and is still holding its fort.

The last qualification dates back to 2015 and despite their good intentions and efforts are flirting with a 7th non-qualification in a row.

This year they are opting for an up-tempo entry, 'Nova Zora' aiming for the Public vote. There is still time to work on the presentation and staging of the entry, but the fact that the lyrics are in Montenegrin makes the mission almost impossible. There is too much going on on stage, the vocals are a tad more aggressive than they should and the lack of melody and charismatic performer are the final nail in the coffin.

The focus should be on the staging, making sure that they can get the low Public votes from most of the countries and make sure that they don't give the jurors  reasons to mark them down. 

It is still early to talk about qualification or non-qualification, when the field is still unknown but Montenegro has lots of work to do to qualify. 

The Good News: 

Montenegro starts the Semi Final with 25-30 secured points from Serbia and Croatia, its biggest allies in the Contest right now, plus 10-15 secured points in the Jury vote, thanks to San Marino and Greece that award them some mid to high jury votes most of the times.

These 35-45 points are a good starting point for them, keeping in mind that 85-90 points might be enough for qualification.

Even if Montenegro finishes last, it will improve its current average ranking in the 50/50 era Semi Finals! (currently 15.7)

The Bad News: 

The last time Montenegro received Public vote points from a country that was not part of the former Yugoslavia, was back in 2017!

The only time that Montenegro managed to sneak in the Top-10 of any of the two constituencies in a Semi Final was back in 2016 with the Juries (10th).

Montenegro has participated in 6 Semi Finals since 2016 and has received 0 Public vote points in 99/118 occasions and 0 Jury points in 77/99 occasions...😲

The Stats junkies' section:

Since 2016, Montenegro has received just 1 set of 12 points in the Jury vote! (Serbia '19) and just 2 sets of 12 point in Public Vote (Serbia '22, '25)

Serbia is the only country that has awarded Montenegro a set of 12 points in the last decade!

The only time that Montenegro awarded a set of 12 points to the Jury Winner both in Finals and Semi Finals was in '22, when its Jury results were cancelled and their Jury score was generated by EBU...

And Montenegro's Semi Final high points go to...

Serbia, Greece, Croatia and San Marino are destined to get the 7-12 Jury points from Montenegro with Serbia being the favourite to get their Jury 12!

Serbia is 100% the recipient of the Public vote 12 points, followed again by Croatia and Greece. 

Montenegro is the most loyal country when it comes to friends and allies regardless of the songs' merit.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Montenegro doing better than expected and finish 11th-12th in Semi Final. They still have a chance to qualify but they will need no shows/ bad entries from other countries to make it. 

Televoting Potential: 5.5/10

Jury Potential: 4/10

Staging Potential: 6/10

Momentum: 1/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 21.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0%

Best case scenario:

Qualification to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Bottom-3 in Semi-Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: J: 25-35 - PV: 15-30 - Tot: 40-65 

F: J: 5-10 - PV: 20-30 - Tot: 25-40