Qualifying Record: 12/12
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/4
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14
Current Country Streak: 12 Q
Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ
The last country standing with a perfect qualifying record, though the 13th time will be bittersweet with everything that is happening in Ukraine right now.
Because of these circumstances, Ukraine is considered the big favorite to win the Contest.
I still thing that the market is overreacting and the actual chances for an Ukrainian win should be near the two digits area. Kudos to those that jumped early to the Ukrainian bandwagon.
Here are my thoughts about Ukraine as a market leader but this post is about the Semi-Final.
The running order that the producers have decided for Ukraine leaves room for speculations.
Is it because they think that Ukraine will win the Semi-Final by a landslide and wanted the make it more suspenseful?
Or is it because they are not happy with an Ukrainian win and the chaos that it will produce and wanted to make sure that Ukraine will not win and therefore have a less favourable running order for the Final?
#6 has produced a winner back in '14 (Austria) in a field of 15 countries though, and a second place back in '19 (Czechia) in one of the weakest Semi-Finals.
The running order of the Final will give us the missing pieces if the Ukrainian puzzle.
Will qualify because...
It will secure the necessary 110-120 points just from the Televoting.
Ukraine has the know-how of staging.
Will not qualify because...
Putin threatens to attack Turin in case Ukraine appears on stage and organizers cancel the whole thing for security reasons.
Realistic Expectations...
1st-3rd
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...
Lithuania '18 (similar theme, family, Q), Netherlands '17 (similar theme, family, Q)
Interesting Facts about the Running Order:
#6 is a Jury magnet slot with four podium finishes (1-1-2) while Televoting has only the Conchita win.
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 3.5 (Js:5.3 - TV:3)
Points: 235 (Js:97.8 - TV:137.2)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.71
What happens next...
Running order will be the key, but this one time not because it will give away much about the song dynamic but mostly about the producer's will.
Top-4 looks safe for the moment, but we need to wait for the subtle clues and hints that will come after the Semi-Finals.
Most probable outcome for the Final...
2nd-4th
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 10.8 (Js:14.6- TV:7.2)
Points: 250.8 (Js:81.8 - TV:169)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.48
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