Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 10. Portugal...feels nostalgic

Qualifying Record: 5/14 (6/14 if 50/50 is applied in 2014)

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/5 (3/5 see above)

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/14

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 5 NQ 

Portugal is still living one of its most successful streaks ever and I have a suspicion that the streak will continue this year as well...

Maro won the National Final with an 8 point difference in a 24 point system and that says it all.

Portugal used English for the first-time last year and the result has motivated them to come back with a similar recipe. 

'Saudade Saudade' is partly in English and partly in Portuguese keeping its originality but also broadens its audience.

This is one of the sleepers that will come to life during rehearsals or during the Semi-Final.

The running order is not great, but it is safe to say that Portugal has the strongest entry between the songs between #9 and #14.

It has a feel well vibe that could be infectious. It is a better version of Kedvesem in my opinion.

It is the definition of dark horse, and I am sure it will live up to the hype.

Will qualify because...

Televoters will love it, Jurors will love it, everyone will love it.

Maro's charisma is undeniable.

Will not qualify because...

#10 current NQ streak. The longest active one...

Realistic Expectations...

3rd-6th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Latvia '15(Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

Currently the longest non qualifying streak with 5 NQs in a row and 6/7 since SF2--2017! Bulgaria in SF1-2018 is the only survivor!

The second worst slot of the second half as well. 

However, it has two podium results back in 2015 (Latvia 3rd) and 2016 (Australia winner) in a field of 17 and 18 countries.

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 8.8 (Js:10.2 - TV:7.6)

Points: 159.2 (Js:69.8 - TV:89.4)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.78

What happens next...

One way or the other Portugal will qualify to the Final. Staging and intimacy are the key elements that could propel Portugal to a Top-10 result and even better.

I have already backed it as an outsider. The 3-digit odds (currently 110) have value.

Needs a second half running order to have a decent chance.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

5th-13th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 13 (Js:11- TV:15)

Points: 316.7(Js:176.3 - TV:140.3)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.26