Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 8. Australia...the qualifying record will never be the same

 

Qualifying Record: 4/5

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ                                      Current Running Order Streak: 5 Q

Australia lost its 100% qualification record and is back to redeem itself!

There was a moment in early February that they were trading @6.00-8.00 before the national final.

The reason was the studio version of 'Not the Same'.

However, everything at the staging of the national final was wrong and the price since then is drifting and drifting, currently being @130.

The main reason was the extra theatricality that disconnects the audience. Add to that the mask that Sheldon Riley wears and leaves no room for interaction, and Australia inevitably relies once more on its Jury track record to qualify and get a decent result in the Final.

Qualification will not be an issue. The problem is how far can the song go just with Jury votes. Back in 2017, they finished ninth receiving just two televoting points...

Will qualify because...

It will be Top-5 with Juries and that might be enough.

The quality is there.

Will not qualify because...

It's a personal song and that usually works in its favour. In that case the extra drama and theatricals leave no room for connection with the audience.

Realistic Expectations...

3rd-6th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Denmark '17 (Q), Azerbaijan '17 (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

The longest qualifying streak with five (7-10-3-6-2).

The rankings of the above streak with Juries are more impressive (4-6-2-5-3) ...

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 5.2 (Js:4.6 - TV:8.4)

Points: 198.2 (Js:120.8 - TV:77.4)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.56

What happens next...

Australia will be at the Final, but they will need some luck and a second half draw to hope for a left-hand side result. It will depend on how high their Jury score will be. Televoting is expected to be very low, especially this year with UK aiming high.

If the staging is different from the national final and help the song elevate, then Top-10 might be within reach.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

8th-16th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 9 (Js:5.4 - TV:13.6)

Points: 284.6 (Js:191.6 - TV:93)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 2.06