Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 13. Romania...wants you to call (for) them

 

Qualifying Record: 10/13

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/14

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

If you believe in luck and coincidence, then Romania is your country!

Last year they performed in #13, the same slot as this year!

They failed to qualify for the third straight time and at the same time they ended the qualification streak that #11 was running with four consecutives...

Add to all that the fact that Romania is sandwiched between two superior songs, and you have the full picture.

The way that Romania has disconnected from its diaspora and televoters the last three years is a case study for how not to do things.

They will need a massive Televoting support to have a chance to qualify and I struggle to see where they will find it. 

This will be my main bet for Semi-Final 2. I know that is too early to pull the trigger, however I find value there that will be lost when rehearsals start this week.

Romania not to qualify @1.80 x 55 units (available in betting companies)

It will be near Bottom-3 with Juries, diaspora has stopped supporting them and there are other songs with a better televoting appeal. Next week the available price will be below 1.50.

Will qualify because...

Estonia and Poland mess up with the staging and live vocals and Romania finishes in Top-10 with both constituencies.

Will not qualify because...

Juries will kill it.

Diaspora is absent in the last three years.

Bad running order.

Realistic Expectations...

12th-15th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Romania '21 (NQ), Switzerland '17 (NQ), Portugal '14 (NQ)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

Three podium results (1-0-2) but an average qualifying record. 

Tends to work better for Televoting (9/14) than Juries (7/14).

Juries currently have a streak of four Top-10. Televoting would have a seven straight Top-10 if Romania had not broken the streak last year...

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 8.2 (Js:9.3 - TV:8.2)

Points: 136.8 (Js:60.2 - TV:76.6)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.79

What happens next...

Many things need to happen at the same time to get Romania to the Final. If that happens, with some help from diaspora and friends, will try to avoid a Bottom-3 result.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

70% NQ, 21st-25th if in Final

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 10 (Js:17.3 - TV:8.7)

Points: 174.7 (Js:43.3 - TV:131.4)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.33