Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 18. Czechia...has a lighting emergency

 

Qualifying Record: 3/9

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/7 for #18, 12/14 for the Pimp slot

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q for #18, 1 NQ for Pimp slot

Finally, we have reached the last entry of this year's Semi-Finalists.

'Lights Off'' was one of the first selected entries back in December and that is the reason it was most people's #1 at least until some point in late January-mid February. 

The studio version is one of the best songs of the year and could/would be a Top-10 contender. 

However, the shaky vocals were present in all the pre-parties and staging could also be a problem.

I still have Czechia on my qualifying pile. They are incredibly lucky 

a. Because this is a very weak Semi-Final and I struggle to find who could take their spot.

b. The Pimp slot will secure the necessary Televoting points.

If more than one country from the following group up its game, then Czechia could be in trouble (Israel, San Marino, Georgia, Ireland).  

Will qualify because...

One of the best entries, at least in studio version, of the year. The weak Semi-Final will not cause any trouble for the Czechs.

The Pimp slot guarantees a more than decent Televoting.

Will not qualify because...

Some shaky vocals and an underwhelming staging could really hurt Czechia.

Realistic Expectations...

7th-11th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Azerbaijan '19 (Q), Ukraine '18 (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

#18: Typically, the best running order with 6/7 Qs, though with three podium results (0-0-3). Surprisingly, Juries have more podiums than Televoting (1-1-0 vs 0-0-1).

Pimp Slot: 12/14 Qs, the best record of all! Seven podium results (1-2-4)!

There is only one time that Televoting did not finish in Top-10 (Latvia '17)

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 9.2 (Js:7 - TV:10.8)

Points: 137.7 (Js:85.5 - TV:52.2)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.64

What happens next...

The qualification is not yet certain, but it is the most probable scenario. The problem is that the field in the Final will be more competitive, and Czechia will be left without any advantage. Anything better than Bottom-5 will be a success.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

25%-30% NQ, 19th-25th if in Final

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 14 (Js:14.7 - TV:18)

Points: 159.7 (Js:85.7 - TV:74)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.16