Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Czechia

 

Kiss Kiss Goodbye - ADONXS

There is the notion that Czechia will do well this year and will be a candidate for a Top-10 result.

There have been lots of discussions about the dance break, that has been added to the last minute of the song and whether that adds something to the song.

'KKG' is another example of half-baked entry, having a good initial idea/plan and then mod-way through realise that it gets so repetitive that they had to add the dance break to mask it somehow.

For that reason I do believe that the dance break works but this is not the songs problem.

I had the chance to watch the entry live in London Eurovision Party and was not impressed with the vocals or the choreo, which seems to be the final product.

Czechia is a borderline entry that will fight head to head with Denmark and Luxembourg for the last ticket. 

It is a matter of who performs better that night and stills the show. My concern is that Czechia is one for the fans and not the casual viewers.

If they qualify, I do not think they have enough to break in the Top-10 with any of the two constituencies and for that reason, Top-10 is out of question. A 14th-18th placing feels more natural.

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Czechia finishing 10th-11th in the Semi - Final, currently in my non-qualifiers list.

Televoting Potential: 7/10

Jury Potential: 6.5/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 5/10

My Opinion: 6/10

Total: 31.5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1%-0.2%

Best case scenario:

Top-15

Worst case scenario:

NQ

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 35-65

F: J: 20-50 - PV: 30-50 - Tot: 50-100

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Czechia: A borderline qualifier or a bust?

You can hear my thoughts about Czechia in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

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Eurovision 2024: The First Impression: Czechia

 

First Thoughts:

And we do have a second entry for the season! Aiko smashed the international votes and despite finishing 5th among the Chech audience will travel to Malmö. Aiko had more votes in total but finishing only 5th in Czechia is a bad omen for Czechia's interest and future to the Contest.

I do have a feeling that the Czechs will not be present to the Grand Final. 

There are too many things that are currently wrong and I am not sure that a vocal improvement, a revamp or a good staging could be enough to save them and send them to the Final.

'Pedestal' is trying to be an avant-garde, provocative entry without being one. The NF staging was too aggressive for the average viewer and screaming does not help either.

Israel '14 does come in mind when a bad running order and a very aggressive staging caused an unexpected  non qualification with a much superior entry.

  Czechia is traditionally struggling with the Televoting and I do expect more left-field/televote magnets that could make things more difficult for them. 

The vocal performance was far from perfect but this could improve in the following months.

The only path that could lead to a qualification is performing as late as possible in the Semi - Final, ideally in the Pimp slot but I doubt that producers and EBU will do Czechia any favors with a number of countries having a worse/bad qualifying record.

If they somehow make it to the Final, they will fight with the worse of the Big-5 entry for the last place.

It reminds me of...

 Israel '14 (NQ), Slovenia '18 (Q), Armenia '19 (NQ)

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 3/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 28/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001%

Best case scenario:

Borderline qualifier

Worst case scenario:

Last place in Semi-Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 5-35 

Final: Js: 0-10 - TV: 0-25 - Total: 0-35

What do I see in my crystal ball?

If in first half Czechia will perform in #2 or #3 or it will be sandwiched between two favorites and will finish bottom-3 in Semi - Final. 

Czechia has done a great job lately when it comes to staging but they basically need to change the whole concept and attitude of the song to stand a chance and I am not very confident they can make it.

Update: You can hear some thoughts about Czechia in our Eurovision podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Talk About Things ESC2024 E01

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Czechia

 

First Thoughts:

Eurovision Gods have decided to torture the punters for a second year in a row and apart from Ukraine itself, they have decided to place another pro-Ukraine song in the Contest.

My Sister's Crown would have been the winner if it were the Ukrainian entry for sure.

Representing Czechia makes things more complicated. 

The studio version is the only song so far that has some winner vibes, however there are many red flags there.

The live performance is not exactly stellar, and Czechia does not have a great record of staging their songs.

The elephant in the room is whether the televoters will vote Czechia as the unofficial Ukrainian entry or if they will opt to support Ukraine. 

Even with all these problems, Czechia is heading for its best or second-best result in the Contest. 

Talking about the win though is far-fetched. The absence of other strong entries keeps Czechia afloat for the moment, but the past has shown that you need your momentum in May and not early February...

It reminds me of...

Ukraine '22, Russia '03

Televoting Potential: 9/10

Jury Potential: 6/10

Staging Potential: 7.5/10

Momentum: 7/10

My Opinion: 8.5/10

Total: 38/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.1% - 1.5%

Best case scenario:

Top-4

Worst case scenario:

16th-20th

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

80+% to Qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

This is a tricky one to predict. We need to keep watching the news in Ukraine. Its Televoting power heavily relies on that. The other unknown factor is its jury power. Will the Eastern European juries go for it? If the answer is yes, Top-4 is within reach.

My gut feeling says 6th-12th.

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 18. Czechia...has a lighting emergency

 

Qualifying Record: 3/9

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/7 for #18, 12/14 for the Pimp slot

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q for #18, 1 NQ for Pimp slot