Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 2 - 16. Belgium...won't miss the Final

 

Qualifying Record: 6/16

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/7

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/13

Current Country Streak: 1 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 4 Q

Belgium is sticking to its successful recipe of Jury-oriented songs that have guaranteed qualifications and good results in the Final.

'Miss You' will most likely be a Top-5 with Juries and that is all it needs to reach the Final. 

If they can get some Televoting appeal with the staging as well, then Top-3 could be within reach. 

The running order gives an extra advantage. Bear in mind that the last three Semi-Final winners all performed in #16.

Will qualify because...

Juries will reward quality.

Running order is the best Belgium could ask for.

Will not qualify because...

Fails to connect with televoters.

Sweden and Poland sweep the votes in both constituencies.

Realistic Expectations...

4th-6th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

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Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

The last three Semi-Final winners all performed at #16 in fields of 18-16-17 songs!

It's the only slot with three wins and has four podiums (3-0-1).

Out of the nine Top-10 results with Juries, six finished in podium!!! (2-2-2)

Three of those medals came at Pimp slot and two at penultimate spot.

Televoting has no win but has four medals (0-2-2)

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 8.3 (Js:7 - TV:9)

Points: 147.6 (Js:76.1 - TV:71.5)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 1.06

What happens next...

Belgium will be in the Final. The problem is that if they underperform in Televoting they will be given an early slot in either half that will make things difficult for them.

The other concern is the number of slow-tempo songs in the Final that will weaken Belgium's advantage. I would expect a similar or slightly better result to Hooverphonic's.

Most probable outcome for the Final...

12th-20th

Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 9.3 (Js:8.3 - TV:11.5)

Points: 249.8 (Js:123.8 - TV:126)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.98