Saturday, 16 April 2022

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 12. Denmark...are you Reddi for The Show?

 

Qualifying Record: 10/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/14

Current Country Streak: 1 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 2 Q



Denmark has some remarkably polarising results in the 50/50 era.

Has qualified in '17 getting just five televoting points! (current record)

Has won the Televoting the following year and finished 12th with the Juries!

Last year almost made it to the Final with just nine Juries points!


The problem for 'The Show' however is that it could not rely in any of the two constituencies for a good result. 

It is not a bad song, but it takes some time to get it going and that is a problem. The other problem is that this could be everybody's seventh or eighth favourite song. Is that enough to vote for it?

Denmark is left in no man's land: Not good enough to qualify, not bad enough to be in the Bottom-3.

Will qualify because...

Austria's staging and live performance will be so bad that people will think that Denmark is a masterpiece.

Will not qualify because...

Not enough power with any of the two constituencies.

The strong entries in the end will make it forgettable.


Realistic Expectations...

12th-14th


Similar Entries of the Past in the same Slot...

Iceland '15 (NQ)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order:

Just the fourth best slot in second half in terms of qualifications (9/14), however the second best in terms of average ranking (7.57) thanks to the great Televoting results (11/14) that have the second-best average overall (7.07)


Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 11.2 (Js:11.7 - TV:10.7)

Points: 99.3 (Js:43.2 - TV:56.1)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.77


What happens next...

It is highly unlikely to see Denmark on Saturday. If that happens though, a Bottom 3-5 result seems the most probable scenario.


Most probable outcome for the Final...

NQ 70%+, If in Final 22nd-25th


Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)

Ranking: 14.3 (Js: 13.8 - TV:14.3)

Points: 137.3 (Js:65.3 - TV:72)

Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 0.91


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