It is exceedingly difficult for me to analyse Ukraine's chances in a song contest when there is an actual war happening there. I hope that the war finishes as soon as possible, and life can thrive again in a country that has suffered so much!
Show me some patterns first!
It is now three years in a row, and four in the last five, that there is a different winner among Juries and Televoters.
Italy was the first winner that ranked 4th with Juries and a similar total to Netherlands in 2019 (5, T-V:2nd - J:3rd).
France had the same total as well (5, T-V:3rd - J:2) but lost because Televoting points tend to be higher compared to Juries' at least for the Top-5.
All three winners since 2018 won despite losing the Juries!
The breakdown of the last three Top-3
2021
1. Italy J: 4th - TV: 1st
2. France J: 2nd - TV: 3rd
3. Switzerland J: 1st - TV: 6th
2019
1. Netherlands J: 3rd - TV: 2nd
2. Italy J: 4th - TV: 3rd
3. Russia J: 9th - TV: 4th
2018
1. Israel J: 3rd - TV:1st
2. Cyprus J: 5th - TV: 2nd
3. Austria J: 1st - TV: 13th
Breakdown of the Average Points in Total, Juries and Televoting (2014-2021) *
Total Juries Televoting
1. 573.4 pts 1. 294.9 pts 1. 337.7 pts
2. 498.6 pts 2. 240.1 pts 2. 278.1 pts
3. 417.7 pts 3. 208.1 pts 3. 244.6 pts
Televoting offers a useful handicap of +30 points that helps secure the win.
Finishing 3rd in Televoting has more value than finishing 2nd in Juries.
It will be interesting to see how this year will turn up, with most of the favorites being jury baits and a few televoting magnets that do not stand a chance with Juries. This might be the year that the Jury winner wins the trophy losing the Televoting. It would have happened in 2015 if the 50/50 system were applied with Sweden winning the Juries and finishing 3rd with Televoting.
Enough with the numbers and time to check the favorites.
That is a roller coaster ride! A different Vidbir winner, a voting scandal, a cancelled winner for political reasons, a Russian invasion and here we are with Kalush Orchestra representing Ukraine and leading the Winner's market!
I cannot imagine the odds they would have had Alina Pash been the representative of Ukraine.
They have reached odds on a few days ago but drifted slightly since then. Song-wise, Stefania is a nice song with the folk elements that Ukraine knows how to use to its favour.
The market thinks that this is an almost certain winner given the circumstances. Punters assume that there will be a massive Televoting and some love from the Juries that can guarantee a landslide victory.
My humble opinion: Ukraine's odds are a classic example of narrative fallacy. There are too many red flags out there to suggest that the victory is far from certain. Just to name a few:
- It has lost its national final.
- When Kalush Orchestra were announced, Ukraine drifted from 6.00-8.00 to +20 and only when the invasion started shortening again.
- It's not Jury-friendly! It will need at least 175-200 Jury points to secure the win and I struggle to see where they will find them.
- Kalush Orchestra will probably be live on tape. Having watched the tapes from last year is obvious that the quality of the staging will be inferior. Just remember Australia.
- Ukraine has confirmed its participation but things might change in the next few months. There is still a slim chance that Ukraine might withdraw.
- Sympathy votes can give you some extra points but cannot secure a win. If that were the case, Bosnia would have had back-to-back wins in 1993-1994.
- The narrative that Ukraine will win because of the war. Back in 2014 the narrative was that Conchita will not win because of the Juries, especially the Eastern European. In 2016 the narrative was that a sad song cannot win. In 2017, Salvador's facial expressions were quirky and would damage his televoting appeal. There are enough examples to support the argument that the Market does not get it always right, at least before rehearsals.
My point is that Ukraine has a nice song that is Top-10 worthy. The circumstances will boost its chances and with a great Televoting might be a Top-5 or even a Top-3 song but I fail to see it as a winner. A fair price would be 12.00-15.00
I do hope though that Ukraine is present on stage in May and receive the warm welcome and support that it deserves! It will be an iconic moment for Eurovision history.
Brividi appeared in the first night of San Remo and it never looked back. The whole National Finals season was a contest to find the song that could beat Brividi.
I am not sure that we have found that song yet!
A very classy entry, which easily won the national final with the most quality.
Italy is the first serious contender for a back-to-back win since Ireland back in 1992-1994.
My humble opinion: This is the one to beat! We need to wait for the three-minute version. I am not worried for the staging. The main concern for Italy is its Televoting appeal. Will it finish higher than the other sad songs/ballads that are in English? (Poland, Greece, Sweden etc).
Will the theme of the song about a gay couple break-up 'alienate' televoters?
If I had to choose a winner today, Italy would be my obvious choice, however I would not call it a certain winner yet.
It's the only song that we already know its running order: #9. Italy has escaped #1-#6 that would have damaged their chances. #9 has not produced a winner or a podium finish in fact since 2013 when the producers are deciding the running order, but all the songs ranked in Top-10 apart from the 2 times that UK performed in that slot (2018-24th, 2021-26th). Sweden has finished 5th twice (2016,2019). In case more favorites are drawn to the first half, there is the easy fix to locate them #11 and #13 and use #8, #10 and #12 as fillers.
The current odds are a bit short. The fair price is near double digits:8.00-10.00.
3. Sweden 7.60
The latest addition to the hot favorites club. Hold Me Closer was the wise choice for Sweden. It's the only song that could bring a good result for Sweden in an average Melfest year.
Sweden's odds were @15-16 before the national final and shortened since then, trading @6.00-7.00 a few days ago.
My humble opinion:
This is a pic tweeted a few days ago @eurovisionario. It shows the Top-5 favorites since 2014 the week after National Finals season is over. According to the odds, Sweden would have six Top-3 results plus a Top-5 in the last 8 years. In fact, only in 2015 overachieved winning the contest.
Having a finished product at this time of the year, makes Sweden look a step ahead of competition. During rehearsals though, the other countries catch up and Sweden drops a few spots.
I reckon that the same thing will happen this year as well. Hold Me Closer finished second with the Televote/App and this is a big red flag considering the weak field in Melfest.
The Juries always help and could guarantee the usual 175-225 points for Sweden.
However, Televoting is different story. The last time that Sweden received more than 200 televote points was in 2015 (if 50/50 system is applied, 279pts). There is a gradual decline in Swedish televotes year after year and the reason is authenticity. Swedish productions are slick, and they are rewarded by the jurors but at the same time lack the authenticity that is the current trend in the contest.
Sweden holds the record with the biggest discrepancy between Juries and Televoting since 2018 (2nd and 23rd respectively) and the points ratio between the two constituencies is 2:1 in favour of the Juries since 2016.
History does not predict the future, but I struggle to see Sweden finishing in Top-5 with Televoting and that is game over if you are aiming for the win.
My current prediction is 4th-8th.
4. United Kingdom 18.50
Who would have thought that there would be a day that UK would be in a post about the Eurovision favorites? UK is finally back!
Spaceman is a proper entry that reflects the music industry of the country that represents. A sign that BBC cares about the contest and does try.
And now the million pounds question? Does UK have a chance to win the contest?
My humble opinion:
Spaceman reminds me of J'ai Cherche' back in 2016. A decent effort from a Big-5 nation that was not even trying for a long time. They have similar odds as well.
The current odds are a classic over-reaction by the British punters. I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit odds later in the season. A fair price though is @ 50-70.
A feel-good song that is not a typical Eurovision entry and could get points both from Juries and Televoting. However, winning the contest is not within reach.
8th-15th looks like the most probable scenario and Top-5 would be the absolute overachievement.
What matters the most is the statement that BBC does this year to signal that is back and UK will be competing in the future.
5. Greece 23.00
Greece continues the tradition that started in 2019 and chose an artist from the Greek diaspora. Die Together is one of the many 'sad' songs of this year and many of them are in the first Semi Final as well.
The odds drifted slightly after Die Together was revealed but it has remained in Top-5.
My humble opinion:
My main concern regarding Greece is the first minute of the song which is a make it or break it. Amanda will be singing alone with no music, and this is not an easy thing to do.
Staging is the other key area. Fokas will be responsible for the staging providing some much-needed experience. This is one to watch out during rehearsals.
My current estimation for Greece is the same with Sweden: 4th-8th.
Greece's best Jury result if 50/50 voting is applied back to 2009 is 10th that achieved last year. It will be better this year, unless there is a serious car crash in live, however I am not 100% sold on its televoting power.
Greece has some solid allies that guarantee a certain number of points every year, however diaspora is absent for some time, since Greece stopped sending the classic ethnic-dance entries and Die Together is not one of those.
Lastly, Die Together might have a negative impact as a song title, especially in the current socio-political climate.
6. Poland 27.00
The last entry of the second sub-group of the favorites. When River was released, the odds reached single digits and Poland was leading the market for a few days.
The price has drifted since the national final. Krystian Ochman's vocal abilities are unique, but his lack of charisma, has not convinced the punters that this is a winner.
My humble opinion:
Poland should feel lucky that found the correct combination for its entry. A jury-magnet song by an artist that has the appeal to the Polish diaspora.
On paper Poland could secure 200+ with both constituencies but I find it extremely difficult to reach the 500 points threshold. Staging will be crucial.
My current estimation is 2nd-5th and the current odds have some value if we compare them with Sweden, UK and Greece.
These are my first thoughts regarding the favorites. It is still early in the season to call a winner and for sure there will be more songs that will rise to the occasion later in rehearsals.
I will post another article with my thoughts about the rest of the market next week.
Feel free to share your thoughts about this year.
*2014 and 2015 had a mixed voting system, but the split results are available and offer more data to analyse.
No comments:
Post a Comment