The Dark Horses Market and my pre EuroJury/Rehearsals Top-10 that will come back to haunt me...

 

Last week I have examined the favorites in Winner's market and now is the time to have a look at some entries that might surprise us in May. 

Some of them are just behind the favorites and some might be hiding in the mud, waiting for the rehearsals to make their appearance.

Some of these entries have a slim chance to win the contest, and some of them have some value for future trading during the rehearsals.

Netherlands 44.00

When I first heard 'De Diepte' I loved the song. I had some second thoughts regarding the Dutch language. It seemed to me that Avrotros is signaling that they would not wish to win and host again. 

However, there are a few countries that recently opt for their native language instead of English. The only song in Top-5 last year that was in English was Iceland (4th) so there is still some hope. 

S10's live appearance gave us also an idea about the staging in May and it was impressive. By far the best lighting visuals we have seen for a while.

My humble opinion: 'De Diepte' is a jury bait and the fact that the people metrics have it high as well is a winning combination. 

Let's not forget that 'Calm After the Storm' was trading at triple digits just before rehearsals. 

If they nail the staging a Top-3 Jury score and a Top-5 Televoting would be within reach and then you never know. 

For the moment is a solid Top-10. 

Portugal 100.00

The fact that Maro managed to win Festival da Cancao with an 8-point margin in a 24-point voting system, says it all. And it was an extremely competitive national final.

Portugal is currently running a great streak since its win in 2017 and that streak, I believe it will continue this year as well. 

My humble opinion: 'Saudade, saudade' has that amateurish feel-good feeling and a mesmerising melody that could turn it to a contender. 

This is a proper sleeper that could elevate after the Semi-Finals.

It reminds me of Kedvesem that managed to sneak in Top-10 only this one has more potential.

@ 100.00 it is a value bet, either for a trade or all the way. 

Serbia 140.00

The song that offers everything to everyone!

'In Corpore Sano' is a song, an artistic performance, a parody, a social and political comment for the Serbian society but has universal appeal as well.

And of course, it has Meghan Markle. I wonder how many TV commentators will resist the temptation to mention this verse.

My humble opinion: Serbia is the definition of dark horse. It's the one that could be the talk of the town and gain momentum at the right moment.

Win is out of reach, but a Top-5 would not shock me.

Honourable Mentions

I have mentioned so far eight countries and there are a few more that have some potential for a good finishing but are lacking the full package.

Spain is currently seventh in odds. Many compare SloMo with Fuego. Spain is the only country that could present something like Fuego and get away with. However, even if the Televoting is high, the Juries have no reason to have it higher than Top-10. And let's not forget that Fuego finished fifth there...

Top-10 is the most probable scenario and if I were the Spanish delegation, I would happily take it.

Norway is the other Televoting magnet. Here we have the precedent of Keiino when they won Televoting but finished just 18th with the Juries. 'Give that Wolf a Banana' will not finish that low, but it is more difficult to land a televote win this year. 

Again. Top-10 seems possible depending on how high the Televoting will be.

Based on what we have seen and heard so far there are a few more entries that could surprise us in May and finish high, but we need to wait for the rehearsals. 

My Pre-Euro Jury/Rehearsals Top-10

And now is the time for my Top-10. Many things will change between now and May, but first impressions and gut feeling should always be taken seriously and work as a compass when we are deep in the Eurovision bubble.

Here we go...

1. Italy

2. Ukraine

3. Netherlands

4. Sweden

5. Poland

6. Portugal

7. Greece

8. Spain

9. Serbia

10. Norway

Within this week we will most probably have the running order for the Semi-Finals. This is when I will start presenting my estimations for the Semis participants along with some useful stats.

And it will be time for some Early Bird units to be used...

Stay tuned!