Tvorchi was my fourth or fifth favorite to win Vidbir 2023, but you never know with Ukraine...Maybe we have the first Vidbir winner since 2018 that will represent the country in Eurovision.
Heart of Steel is a typical host entry, where the broadcaster makes everything in their power to avoid winning again.
If this were any other country's entry for this year, I would expect a result like the host entries from 2017 to 2021, Bottom-5 or near there. But we are talking about Ukraine which is still in war and has achieved an amazing result last year, mostly because of that. They currently have the biggest diaspora in Europe and many friends and allies that would show their support by voting for them in Televoting and Juries.
It is exceedingly early to tell how the situation in Ukraine will be in May and this is a deciding factor for Ukraine's performance regarding the amount of sympathy votes. Which brings us to the subject of this article...
Would you recognize Heart of Steel as the Ukrainian entry if you did not know the country it comes from? It is a contemporary entry, Ukraine has an amazing track record in staging and will have support from diaspora and friends, but this song has no winner vibes at all and no identity. The melody is rather forgettable, and a serious downgrade compared to the recent Ukrainian entries. It will seriously test the theory that Ukraine can win the contest again no matter what they send.
Is Ukraine signaling that they are preparing for the next day? Are they opening themselves to the world showing that they have more than folklore songs? It looks like it. There were other entries that would do better with the sympathy vote and would play the 'we are in a war card' but public and jury have chosen the difficult path.
It reminds me of...
Belgium '22
Televoting Potential: 8/10
Jury Potential: 6.5/10
Staging Potential: 8.5/10
Momentum: 10/10
My Opinion: 6.5/10
Total: 39.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.5%-3%
Best case scenario:
Win if war is still on and high on the agenda
Worst case scenario:
Right hand side of the scoreboard if war is over and news have moved on
What do I see in my crystal ball?
5th-12th if the war is still on, 12th-20th if the war is over by May (I truly hope it does)
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