There is not too much to comment on San Marino. I have to give them their flowers for their Machiavellian structured national final that takes turns on selecting either a big Italian name or an artist from abroad just to justify the fees they are charging for the foreigners to apply.
Gabry Ponte will be their representative, trying to bring some spark from San Remo, where Tutta l'Italia was the unofficial gig of the festival.
The problem is that San Remo wisely used these juicy 10-15 seconds of the song that are actually uplifting and super catchy but the rest of the song is uninspiring at least and render the song a very long 3 minutes.
Additionally, a Eurovision entry staged with the DJ being the centre of attention has not worked very well and this is an extra reason to be cautious with San Marino's qualification odds. The last attempt of this genre was Austria '22 that failed spectacularly to qualify even though it was considered one of the favourites and Gabry Ponte was the writer of that entry...
Another fact to keep in mind is that we have 3 Italian entries in the Semi - Final (Italy, San Marino, Estonia) and this is the weakest of all.
There is still hope for San Marino to secure qualification but I would be very cautious with its odds. If they make it to the Final, 'Tutta l'Italia' is the main contender to finish last in the Jury vote and very close to the bottom, if not last place.
What do I see in my crystal ball?
San Marino is the definition of a borderline entry but my gut says that this does not have enough to secure qualification and might not even be close enough to that threshold. 13th in the Semi - Final.
Televoting Potential: 6.5/10
Jury Potential: 1/10
Staging Potential: 3/10
Momentum: 4/10
My Opinion: 3/10
Total: 17.5/50
What the fair winning chance % would be?
0.000001%
Best case scenario:
Qualification to the Final
Worst case scenario:
Last in Semi - Final
Pre-Contest estimated points:
SF: 15-45
F: J: 0-10 - PV: 20-40 - Tot: 20-50
Share your thoughts in the comments area. Could a 15-seconds song have enough traction to secure qualification?
You can hear my thoughts about San Marino in the 6th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things' co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and @Panos_Zannettos at
No comments:
Post a Comment