In my previous
post I addressed the 'Elephant in the Room' problem that Eurovision faces in the Public vote since '22 when the war broke in Ukraine. The problem became more intense last year with the addition of Israel's war as well.
I have also mentioned the recent trend with the last two Jury winners winning the Contest without winning the Public vote, something that has happened only once from 2009 to 2022 (Sweden '15).
This article will try to shed some light and explain if what happened in the previous two Eurovisions was a statistical anomaly or the new norm. This has been my focus so far this season when analysing the data from the split vote era ('16-'24). There are some interesting findings that I am sure that they will grab your attention.
The easiest way to answer why we have two consecutive Jury winners that won Eurovision despite losing the Public vote is that we have had the Semi-Final rule change where the result is 100% determined by the public. As a result, the Final is stacked with more 'televote magnets' that have their Public vote scores diluted in the Final, while the strong Jury magnet entries are less and therefore it is easier for them to secure a great Jury score.
This answer is partially valid, when we are looking at the Public vote side with many entries doing well in the Semi - Final but get lost in the Final, because there are stronger packages there (Austria '23, Moldova '23, Poland '23, Finland '24, Estonia '24). The competition is fierce and is very difficult for more than three or four entries to really stand out with the public, especially now that Ukraine and Israel are both taking big slices of the Public vote cake.
The second part of the answer is to assume that at the same time we have a smaller number of 'jury bait' entries that do get all the Jury points and that assumption is also partially correct. There is indeed one entry that is amassing the majority of 12s and 10s every year but no more than that.
In the last two editions there were 2 entries that scored 300+ points in the Jury vote (Sweden '23/ 340pts, Switzerland '24/ 365pts), and 2 entries that scored 200+ points (France '24/ 218pts, Croatia '24/ 210pts). At the same span there are 4 entries that scored 300+ points in the Public vote (Finland '23/ 376pts, Croatia '24/ 337pts, Israel '24/ 323pts, Ukraine '24/ 307pts), and 4 entries that scored 200+ points (Sweden '23/ 243pts, Norway '23/ 216pts, France '24/ 227pts, Switzerland '24/ 226pts).
It is rather impressive that the Public vote failed to crown a winner in four occasions which an entry scored 300+ points and the Jury vote managed to win 2/2 within the same threshold. Excluding Ukraine and Israel and their 'special Public vote circumstances', there are two entries from each side and Juries won both times, despite the fact that Finland in '23 got the highest single score (376pts vs 340pts).
I had to dig deeper in numbers to draw more conclusions and decided to check the sets of 12 points the winners and runner-ups received in the split vote era plus the number of countries that received at least one set of 12 points. Regarding the number of countries receiving at least one set of 12 points, there is a similar trend that started with both constituencies in '22, and that is a significant reduction in the number of countries that are awarded with 12 points.
Between 2016-2021 the average number of countries receiving a set of 12 points was 14 for the Public vote and 14.6 for the Jury vote. The averages for the 2022-2024 period are 10 and 9.7 respectively! Suddenly, Juries and Public are awarding their top scores in less entries, leading to scores near or above the 350 points region.
Furthermore, 5/6 entries in the Top 6 in sets of 12 points received within a constituency come from the last three editions as well.
28 - Ukraine '22 (PV)
22 - Switzerland '24 (JV)
18 - Finland '23 (PV), Portugal '17 (JV)
15 - Sweden '23 (JV), Israel '24 (PV)
There are 11 entries in total that have received 10 sets of 12 points or more in a constituency between 2016 and 2024 and 5 of them are the ones mentioned above, all sitting in the Top 6. But even these stats are not enough to draw a final conclusion on why Jury Winners have won Eurovision twice in a row.
My next step was to focus on the amount of sets of 12 points the Top 3 in the scoreboard (total results) has received with each constituency looking at the averages and medians and this when I had my eureka moment!
Average number of 12 points sets with each constituency and totals the split vote era (2016-2024)
Winner - Jury Vote: 10.8 - Public Vote: 7.8 - Total: 18.6
2nd - Jury Vote: 5.6 - Public Vote: 6.1 - Total: 11.7
3rd - Jury Vote: 4.6 - Public Vote: 4.9 - Total: 9.5
My first reaction when I have seen the averages for the Eurovision winners was that the results of the last two years, have skewed the numbers in favor of the Juries so I have decided to check the median number as well and these are the results.
Median number of 12 points sets with each constituency and totals in the split vote era (2016-2024)
Winner - Jury Vote: 8.5 - Public Vote: 5.5 - Total: 16
2nd - Jury Vote: 6 - Public Vote: 4 - Total: 11.5
3rd - Jury Vote: 4.5 - Public Vote: 4.5 - Total: 9
The numbers between the two different metrics are not that far off and the Juries are still doing better than the Public. And then came the biggest surprise I have ever witnessed while doing Eurovision data analysis! Checking the individual sets of 12 points of all winners I realized that...
-There is a Eurovision Winner that has received 0 sets of 12 points in the Public Vote (Sweden '23).
- There is a Eurovision Winner that has received 1 set of 12 points in the Public Vote (Switzerland '24).
- There is a Eurovision Winner that has received 2 sets of 12 points in the Public Vote (Netherlands '19) but...
- There is no Eurovision Winner that has received less than 4 sets of 12 points in the Jury Vote!!! (Italy '21)
In fact, 5/8 times the Eurovision winner received more 12s from the Juries than the Public...
Ukraine '16 - JV: 11 - PV: 6
Portugal '17 - JV: 18 - PV: 12
Netherlands '19 - JV: 6 - PV: 2
Sweden '23 - JV: 15 - PV: 0
Switzerland '24 - JV: 22 - PV:1
The discrepancy between the two constituencies is pretty obvious, something that is not the case in the 3 occasions that the Eurovision winner had more 12s from the Public with the exception of Ukraine in 2022.
Israel '18 - JV: 5 - PV: 8
Italy '21 - JV: 4 - PV: 5
Ukraine '22 - JV: 5 - PV: 28
The fact that Ukraine in '16 finished 2nd with both constituencies, Portugal won them both in '17, and Israel '18, Netherlands '19 and Italy '21 all finished higher in Public vote than in Jury vote have kept the truth in the dark.
Juries have a 5-3 score in their favor among the 2nd places and the 3rd place has a 4-4 tie. There are 3 more entries that managed to receive only 1 set of 12pts from the Public vote and finished in Top 3 (UK '22 - 2nd, Switzerland '21- 3rd, Spain '22 - 3rd) when there is only 1 entry that finished in Top 3 receiving 0 sets of 12s in Jury vote (Moldova '17 - 3rd) and 1 more that received only 1 (Russia '19 - 3rd).
These findings made me understand that there is a misconception, even among the analysts myself included, regarding how powerful the Juries are. However, there still wasn't a definite answer why the Jury winners of the past two years won Eurovision.
The final piece of the puzzle was to check the average number of countries that voted the overall Top 3 in each constituency. And this was the part where everything became crystal clear...
Average number of countries that gave points in the split vote era (2016-2024)
Winner: Jury Vote: 31.8 / 39.1 - Public Vote: 38.8 / 39.4
2nd: Jury Vote: 31.9 / 39.1 - Public Vote: 38 / 39.4
3rd: Jury Vote: 27.2 / 39.1 - Public Vote: 33.1 / 39.4
All Eurovision Winners in the split vote era, were awarded Public vote points from almost every other country (310/315). Even the second place has a close to perfection record (305/315).
5 Eurovision Winners got voted by all other countries in Public vote (Portugal '17, Netherlands '19, Italy '21, Ukraine '22, Sweden '23), 2 Eurovision winners were not voted only by 1 other country (Ukraine '16, Switzerland '24) and only Israel '18 was not voted by 3 countries.
There are also 5 entries that finished 2nd and were awarded points by all other countries in Public Vote! (Bulgaria '17, Cyprus '18, France '21, Finland '23, Croatia '24).
The number of Eurovision Winners that managed to receive points from all other countries in the Jury vote?...
1...Sweden in '23...
This is the crucial point! It is common to have a televote magnet that sometimes or most times will struggle with the Jurors. On the other hand, if a country has received Jury points from the vast majority of the countries, it will do the same with the Televote, regardless if they win or not. Sweden '23 failed to receive a single set of 12 points in Televote but finished 2nd there receiving points from all countries. Switzerland '24 received just a set of 12 points, it finished 5th with the Public vote but has received points from all but one country! The more sets of points a country receives, the bigger the chance they have to win Eurovision.
There are only 3 occasions where the Eurovision Winner received less sets of points than the runner-up:
2016: Ukraine - Jury Vote: 24/41 - Public Vote: 40/41 - Total: 64/82
Australia - Jury Vote: 38/41 - Public Vote: 37/41 - Total: 75/82
2021: Italy - Jury Vote: 28/38 - Public Vote: 38/38 - Total: 66/76
France - Jury Vote: 33/38 - Public Vote: 38/38 - Total: 71/76
2022: Ukraine - Jury Vote: 26/39 - Public Vote: 39/39 - Total: 65/78
UK - Jury Vote: 35/39 - Public Vote: 34/39 - Total: 69/78
These three happen to be the only cases that a country won while receiving points from less than 30 countries in Jury vote as well. And the two of them happen to be Ukraine, land sliding the Public vote in 2022 that made their Jury performance irrelevant and receiving 11 sets of 12s from the 24 countries that gave them Jury points in 2016. This is the reason why I do consider both Ukrainian wins to be political.
That leaves Eurovision 2021 as the only time that the Winner received points from less countries not only than the runner up but also than the third place. The fact that all three countries were neighbors (Italy, France, Switzerland) gave the upper hand in Italy that managed to win the Public vote.
This is the main reason behind Sweden's and Switzerland's win in the last two editions. Finland in '23 was voted by 22/36 countries in the Jury vote and Croatia 30/36 respectively. Both countries were far behind and the opponents' near perfect scores guaranteed that they would receive votes from all countries in Televote as well.
There is a very small number of countries that received points from 33 countries or more in the Jury vote and failed to score points with more than 30 countries in the Public vote at the same time:
Austria '18 - Jury vote: 34/42 - Public vote: 18/42
Sweden '18 - Jury vote: 35/42 - Public vote: 7/42
In conclusion there is only one way to win Eurovision and that is to receive Public vote points from all or all but one countries and have a consensus between the two constituencies.
The Juries might disagree with the Public, but if all Juries or almost all of them agree between them for an entry, then the Public will agree as well.
If an entry receives points from 34-35 countries in the Jury vote, expect the same to happen in the Public vote as well. And since this is the order with which the points are presented in the Final, I will have these numbers in mind when trying to calculate my winner.
Please do share your thoughts and keep the conversation going.
