Regarding my tips, Netherlands returned most part of my capital and waiting for the Semi - Final results after the Final to see if Israel was Top-3 to get a 100% profit.
If I read the metrics correct, Israel should be there.
Time to move on and focus on tonight's Semi - Final 2. This is going to be a little bit trickier than Tuesday. My estimation is that we have 8 countries that are 100% safe, and they are sailing to the Final:
Austria, Australia, Cyprus, Armenia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Poland, Belgium.
There are 3 entries that have no chance making it:
San Marino, Romania, Iceland
And that means that we have 5 countries fighting for the 2 remaining spots:
Georgia, Estonia, Greece, Denmark, Albania.
So the two main talking points are:
1. Top-3 where I do believe we have 3 entries that stand out and remains to be seen who wins the Semi - Final. I am talking about the 3As: Austria, Armenia, Australia.
Austria is the favorite but lost some of its momentum just when rehearsals started. It was matched as low as 1.60, drifted all the way to 4.90 and is now at 2.24. Australia saw its odds shorten when the first pictures were published and is currently trading at 4.70 and Armenia is the third one that stood out of the crowd now at 7.2.
2. Who are the 2 nations that will get the two remaining tickets for the Final?
Let's get started! Just a reminder that you can find my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings for SF2 here. I am always commenting the songs in their running order.
Denmark
This is the first one from the group of 5 that is gradually missing ground and can be considered a non-qualifier. Denmark has one of the most clever stagings of the year but the running order and the suspicious vocal abilities of Reiley, even in a Televote only Semi - Final, are enough to leave this one out. It was trading almost odds on, now Q is at 2.50 - NQ 1.50.
Non qualification is a very safe option for someone that does not like to take many risks when betting.
Place: 13th
Estimated Points: 35-45
Armenia
If you follow my blog and read my posts regularly, you must be tired already reading my praises for Armenia. The staging has not let me down and the added dance routine in the end of the track that was kept secret until yesterday do elevate the studio version. Brunette's vocals are stunning, and we might have a dark horse in the making.
The one to break the Death Slot #2 curse and become the first entry since SF2 back in 2016 that has qualified from there (Poland) and just the third one in 20 attempts (Armenia did it again in 2015).
I do think that Armenia is a secured Top-10 for the Final and if drawn in second half could potentially crack Top-5 as well. Could score well with Juries and Armenia can take advantage of its diaspora and the poor representation of Eastern Europe in the Final.
Coming back to the Semi - Final, Armenia's Top-3 now trading at 2.14 is a fantastic opportunity and for those that oppose Austria for the win, Armenia pays 6.80. Both bets are in my book for the SF.
Stoiximan offers the following Top-2 pairs in SF: Armenia/Australia at 10 and Armenia/Austria 5.50. Both have value and in my personal book.
Place: 1st
Estimated Points: 150-170
Romania
Few things to add here. A weird entry that stands no chance. If you think that Romanian diaspora could do a miracle and send this one to the Final, the currents odds is 21!
Place: 14th
Estimated Points: 25-35
Estonia
My biggest downgrade since the national finals season. If in Final, Estonia could potentially have been a Top-10 with Juries. However, there is a possibility that it will not make it there. The market in the last few hours seems to favor its qualifying chances and currently trades at 1.65 but I suspect that this is an overreaction to yesterday night's audience poll (people voting their preferred entries when leaving the stadium in Liverpool) where Estonia ranked 6th but do not forget that for the SF1 Malta was 5th and NQed the same with Ireland that ranked 6th.
In every Semi - Final since the 50/50 voting system was introduced, there is one entry that is saved by the Juries that otherwise would miss the Final. Estonia is my choice to not qualify for that reason and also because of its poor running order with just 8/19 qualifications.
It will be marginal, but I do call Estonia a non-qualifier.
I will not tip Estonia to not qualify at 2.50 as I find better values elsewhere, but I do have it in my personal book.
Place: 11th
Estimated Points: 45-55
Belgium
Belgium is the Cinderella story of the year. An entry that was third-fourth favorite in the national final, won, and then it was considered a certain non-qualifier but currently it has climbed all the way up to secure qualification and be Top-5 in the Semi - Final.
The first up-tempo entry that potentially is the real opener of the Semi - Final. Remember Israel 2015...
For those betting in Greece (stoiximan) Belgium to Finish Top-5 in SF at 2.50 is a value bet.
Place: 4th
Estimated Points: 120-140
Cyprus
A hit and miss for Cyprus with an extremely basic staging that could have aimed higher if produced differently.
Qualification is not an issue here, could still crack Top-5 but I think that Belgium will steal some of its momentum.
Place: 7th
Estimated Points: 70-80
Iceland
A poor attempt from Iceland this year. Will get a few points from Denmark, just enough to avoid last place. No value in non-qualification odds unless you are willing to bet a few Ks.
Place: 15th
Estimated Points: 15-25
Greece
Here we are! Greece is the hot topic of the night! Will it make it? Is it doomed? The qualifying odds have gone from 1.50 last week, all the way up to 3+. The 30 second video segment has scared people off and yes Victor is not vocally great, and the staging is a mess but...
Having seen the whole performance I state that the whole 3 minutes look way better and there are some factors to keep in mind before choosing a side on a bet.
-If the 100% Televoting rule is applied for the Double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022), Greece has the best qualifying record with 13/14 qualifications (missed out 2016 and 2018 would have been a qualification).
- Greece could not have asked for a better Semi - Final in terms of friends with Cyprus, Armenia, Georgia, Denmark (Victor is half Dane), Albania and having a huge diaspora that could also give some points from the rest of the world televote. The maximum threshold to secure a place in the Final is 60 and Greece starts with minimum 25-35 points in the bag.
- Victor is a 16-year-old boy that is living his dream. He might be overselling this one, but teens and mothers could relate. The struggle as well could be perceived as authentic and give some extra points.
- This is the first time ever Greece is offered in such high odds in a Semi - Final and that means value.
Greece qualifying at 2.92 (current price in Betfair) is a bet I am happy to take even if I lose it because it is a good call long term. I do consider it the best value bet in a SF of the last 5-6 years. It is a low-risk high reward bet, and the fair price would be 1.80-1.90. This will be my main tip for tonight.
Again, for the Greek followers, stoiximan offers a H2H against Denmark at 2.70 that could be a safe option as well in case Greece does not make it but finish higher than Denmark.
There is also a combo bet with the above H2h against Denmark and Poland to Finish Top-5 in SF at 6.60! I have them already in my book.
Place: 9th
Estimated Points: 55-65
Poland
The guilty pleasure entry of the year sailing to the Final and being a candidate for a Top-5 finish in Semi -Final when just a month ago it was odds on to qualify.
If Polish diaspora shows up, spoiler alert: it will, Poland could aim for that Top-5. It is also pleasant enough to be accepted by the international audience as well.
Stoiximan offers the Top-5 in SF at 2.40 which is fair.
Place: 6th
Estimated Points: 80-90
Slovenia
The most suitable candidate to break the current Top-3 (3.05 in betfair) but somehow lacked something yesterday. This is a great show song and Slovenia is heading back to the Final after a while. It is a secured Top-5 and could only aim for higher.
Place: 5th
Estimated Points: 100-120
Georgia
The second most fragile entry after Denmark from the group of 5. Georgia has a decent staging and a great performer but there is a tiny problem...They have forgotten to send an actual song to the Contest. There is no cohesion, no meaning at all. It is just a vocal exercise for Iru. The market is noticing that and qualifying odds from 1.10 are now trading at 1.35-1.40.
There is still value there for the non-qualification but most of it is now lost. You can still triple your money though.
Place: 12th
Estimated Points: 45-55
San Marino
Getting ready for another last place after a while. No value in any bet.
Place: 16th
Estimated Points: 5-15
Austria
The big favorite that leaves people with mixed emotions. Some love it others hate it. It failed to recreate the video clip vibes and tried too hard to be taken seriously watering down the fun factor. They took the opposite way of Finland, but I am not convinced that this will translate in great result.
I had them out of my Top-10 for the Final and nothing has changed since. Was tempted to lay its Top-3 odds for the SF currently at 1.41.
Place: 3rd
Estimated Points: 130-150
Albania
The one that has improved the most during rehearsals. Currently at 2.10 to qualify. This is a possibility and I do have it on my qualifiers list, but I am hesitating to tip it for various reasons. The most important one is that Albania is missing all its allies apart from Greece and has minimum secured points.
Even in the past when allies have been present, Albania would finish 9th-12th most of the times so it is always a borderline and hence I find no value in these odds.
Place: 10th
Estimated Points: 50-60
Lithuania
A safe qualifier that is also helped from the great running order. It could be a secure Top-15 in the Final with the Lithuanian diaspora and the Juries adding some extra help.
Place: 8th
Estimated Points: 70-80
Australia
And finally, Australia! Regardless of whether you like the song or not, you will agree that the staging will be spectacular with some retro-futuristic elements that will remain in history! The Pimp Slot in the producers' running order era (2013-2022) has produced 8/18 Top-3 results, which is now safe to assume that have become 9/19 with Finland performing there on Tuesday. It has also produced 2 wins ('13 Romania, '18 Cyprus).
It is safe to assume that Australia is a Top-3 and I would not rule out a win based on the running order either.
Place: 2nd
Estimated Points: 140-160
I have given multiple options for all types of bets but these are the ones that made it to my final selection
Greece to Qualify @2.92 (Betfair) x 75 units
Armenia to Win the Semi - Final @ 6.80 (Betfair) x 25 units
Available Units: 0
Open Bets: 100 Units
Settled Bets: 0 units
I have decided to take more risks in this Semi - Final because I do believe in them, and my book already looks healthy enough. You can also find the updated version of my book here
Good luck with your bets tonight! I will try to post something tomorrow about the running order in the Final as well and some thoughts about the contenders.
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