Things are more fluid because of that average - low quality level and minor details could make the difference for the desired qualification ticket for the Final.
Image: Chloe Hashemi/EBU
The stats are focused on historical data of Semi - Final Televoting for the Double Semi - Finals era (2008-2022) and of the Running order under the producers' era (2013-2022).
Fasten your seatbelt (no pun intended) and enjoy!
Qualifying Record: 8/13 ('08-'22) - 3/8 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 8.1 ('08-'22) - 9.8 ('13-'22)
Wins: 2
Top-3 Results: 4 (2-1-1)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 16th-1st-11th-7th-13th
Running Order Record: 10/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 9.4
Running Order Wins: 0
Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)
A few words about the play: The difference in Denmark's performance with the Televoters before and after the win in 2013 is impressive.
Lately struggling to make it to the Final. It is borderline this year as well.
The latest results in #1 suggest a qualification.
Qualifying Record: 8/12 ('08-'22) - 5/8 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 7.4 ('08-'22) - 8 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 7th-14th-15th-x-3rd
Running Order Record: 2/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 13.3
Running Order Wins: 0
Running Order Top-3 Results: 0
A few words about the play: Armenia is getting ready to re-write the Semi - Finals' running order history by becoming the first entry since 2016 and Poland to qualify from that slot.
The other qualification that comes from slot #2 is also Armenia's so they know the drill.
First Top-3 for #2 as well? I say yes.
Qualifying Record: 10/13 ('08-'22) - 5/8 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 6.3 ('08-'22) - 6.9 ('13-'22)
Wins: 1
Top-3 Results: 4 (1-1-2)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 3rd-13th-14th-12th-5th
Running Order Record: 6/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 11.9
Running Order Wins: 1
Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (1-0-1)
A few words about the play: Romania has changed their approach to the Contest back in 2018 and the results do not justify their choice.
Last year they did change direction and got a safe qualification, but this will not be the case this year. Could diaspora carry them to the Final alone performing in #3?
If they do that, this will be a Top-3 shocker qualifier in the history of Semi-Finals.
Qualifying Record: 8/14 ('08-'22) - /59 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 9('08-'22) - 8.7 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 4 (0-1-3)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 6th-3rd-3rd-12th-7th
Running Order Record: 8/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 10.9
Running Order Wins: 0
Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-1-3)
Qualifying Record: 6/13 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 11 ('08-'22) - 8.9 ('13-'22)
Wins: 1
Top-3 Results: 4 (1-0-3)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 3rd-16th-15th-11th-10th
Running Order Record: 12/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 8.8
Running Order Wins: 2
Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-1-3)
A few words about the play: #5 is the first strong slot for televoting friendly entries with 2 wins and 6 podium results in the producers' era.
Belgium has changed direction this year after 5 years of Jury oriented entries. This is the reason that Belgium was given this slot making it the unofficial opener of this Semi - Final.
The paradox is that the last five non qualifications out of the six in total since 2013 have happened in the last 5 Semi - Finals, currently the longest standing non qualification streak...
Qualifying Record: 9/13 ('08-'22) - 7/8 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 9.5 ('08-'22) - 7.5 ('13-'22)
Wins: 1
Top-3 Results: 1(1-0-0)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 5th-1st-10th-7th-9th
Running Order Record: 11/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6
Running Order Wins: 2
Running Order Top-3 Results: 3 (2-1-0)
Qualifying Record: 10/14 ('08-'22) - 5/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 8.2 ('08-'22) - 10.1 ('13-'22)
Wins: 2
Top-3 Results: 4 (2-1-1)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 14th-19th-1st-2nd-10th
Running Order Record: 10/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 8.2
Running Order Wins: 0
Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (0-3-1)
Qualifying Record: 13/14 ('08-'22) - 8/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 6.1 ('08-'22) - 9.1 ('13-'22)
Wins: 2
Top-3 Results: 4 (2-2-0)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 9th-10th-9th-7th-8th
Running Order Record: 11/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 9.5
Running Order Wins: 0
Running Order Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)
Qualifying Record: 8/12 ('08-'22) - 7/8 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 8.8 ('08-'22) - 6.5 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 6th-10th-8th-13th-4th
Running Order Record: 16/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 6.3
Running Order Wins: 2
Running Order Top-3 Results: 6 (2-3-1)
A few words about the play: Poland has the 3rd best ranking average in producers' era ('13-'22) after Sweden and Norway.
What's more impressive is that during that span the best result they have achieved is just a 3rd place ('14).
The second-best slot to have after the Pimp Slot.
Qualifying Record: 5/14 ('08-'22) - 4/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 12.4 ('08-'22) - 12.2 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 16th-9th-5th-14th-17th
Running Order Record: 8/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 10.2
Running Order Wins: 0
Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (0-1-1)
A few words about the play: The combination of the running order and Slovenia's record is the third weakest of all 31 entries; however, Slovenia should be sailing to the Final.
What might be affected is Slovenia's chances to win the Semi - Final, something that has not happened so far from #10.
Qualifying Record: 4/13 ('08-'22) - 1/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 11.2 ('08-'22) - 13 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 1 (0-0-1)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 13th-17th-13th-14th-17th
Running Order Record: 6/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 11.3
Running Order Wins: 0
Running Order Top-3 Results: 0
A few words about the play: The second weakest combination of a country's and running order's record. If the recent form trend continues, Georgia should finish 13th.
The running order and the absence of a powerful entry is what makes me think that Georgia is a borderline qualifier and would not be surprised if they fail to qualify.
If Albania makes the cut, Georgia and not Greece will be the one to be left out.
Qualifying Record: 3/12 ('08-'22) - 2/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 12.8 ('08-'22) - 11.7 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 0
Recent Form ('17-'22): 17th-16th-4th-10th-12th
Running Order Record: 13/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 7.7
Running Order Wins: 1
Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (1-3-0)
A few words about the play: Nothing to add about San Marino. The last of the three entries without a Top-3 result so far, having a 4th place back in 2019.
Qualifying Record: 4/10 ('08-'22) - 3/8 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 10.6 ('08-'22) - 10.1 ('13-'22)
Wins: 1
Top-3 Results: 2 (1-1-0)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 14th-5th-18th-15th-11th
Running Order Record: 12/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 7.8
Running Order Wins: 2
Running Order Top-3 Results: 2 (2-0-0)
A few words about the play: The big favourite of the Semi - Final in a slot that has produced two wins but no other podium result suggesting that if Austria does not win the Semi - Final, it might land outside the Top-3.
I do lean on the second outcome because Austria does have a poor qualification record and a minimal help from neighbours and friends.
Qualifying Record: 7/14 ('08-'22) - 3/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 9.9 ('08-'22) - 11.2 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 1 (0-1-0)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 12th-11th-9th-11th-9th
Running Order Record: 13/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 8.6
Running Order Wins: 3
Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-0-1)
A few words about the play: Albania has an ideal running order, but I do suspect that the producers used the slot as a filler between Austria and Australia that comes after two songs.
Albania has just three qualifications in producers' era, and they all come with sweat and tears 8th and 9th (x2). Add to that the lack of its most important allies and Albania has to work very hard to find the points needed to make it.
Qualifying Record: 10/14 ('08-'22) - 7/9 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 8.1 ('08-'22) - 7.6 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 2 (0-0-2)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 15th-9th-8th-3rd-5th
Running Order Record: 12/18 / Second Last: 16/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 8.1 / Second Last: 6.7
Running Order Wins: 3 / Second Last: 2
Running Order Top-3 Results: 4 (3-1-0) / Second Last: 3 (2-0-1)
A few words about the play: Lithuania in my opinion is the country that had the best possible draw to maximise its qualifying potential and become a certain qualifier somewhere in the middle of the table.
Diaspora will always be there to help as well.
Qualifying Record: 4/6 ('13-'22)
Average Ranking: 8.3 ('13-'22)
Wins: 0
Top-3 Results: 2 (0-2-0)
Recent Form ('17-'22): 15th-7th-2nd-16th-8th
Running Order Record: 11/17 / Last: 16/18
Running Order Average Ranking: 7.9 / Last: 4.9
Running Order Wins: 0 / Last: 2
Running Order Top-3 Results: 3 (0-2-1) / Last: 8 (2-2-4)
A few words about the play: Australia's record and the Pimp Slot guarantee that a Top-3 result is the bare minimum. It is very possible as well to have the first win coming from #16.
The combination #16 and Pimp Slot has only occurred four times in the 18 Semi - Finals since 2013 and it has a second, a third and a fourth place! It is time for the win as well.
And this concludes the articles about the Semi - Finals. The fun just starts and will try to post some numbers and stats about the Final as well somewhere between the Semi - Finals' posts and of course do not miss the posts with my predictions and betting tips.
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