The rehearsals have already started with some major hiccups (call me stage malfunction) and remains to be seen how some entries might be affected by that.
There is no official statement for the moment, and we have a few more days to find out if the rotating sun will work properly or some entries will need to change plans and their presentation.
Not the best thing to happen when we have a Semi-Final happening in eight days.
We have to move on and it's time to focus on the entries of Semi-Final 2.
Last year I got right 8/10 qualifiers, having Austria (8th) and Czechia (10th) in my list, and missing Portugal (11th) and Albania (14th).
Just a reminder that if you click on the name of each country, you can find the detailed preview.
1. Sweden
Tv: 1st - Juries: 1st
What I think it will happen: I do not know what will happen in the Final and if Sweden will win the trophy or not, but the win in the Semi-Final looks like a certainty. The other potential winners are more vulnerable and do stand a chance just in theory. The Jury win is locked and remains to be seen if Sweden can win the Televoting as well. Just a reminder that the best score for Sweden with televoters after the 2015 win, is 103 points back in 2017 and they have not reached the 100 points since then.
I would be shocked if: Sweden finishes out of Top-2.
2. Estonia
Tv: 2nd - Juries: 4th
What I think it will happen: Estonia is the less vulnerable entry of the rest of the field and can score decent points with both constituencies. The odds for a Top-3 finish @3.55 have some value. It's the type of entry that can get the 3-7 points from everyone and finish high without people noticing.
I would be shocked if: Estonia fails to finish in Top-5.
3. Poland
Tv: 4th - Juries: 5th
What I think it will happen: Poland reminds me of Bulgaria last year. Among the favorites, at least in theory, and when the Contest started it never took off. Poland can always rely on its diaspora, but this is easier to happen in the Final. The other concern is that Poland has not performed well in Eurojury and they have a chronicle problem with Juries. In fact, they have never finished in Top-10 in a Semi-Final despite qualifying to the Final four times!!! If they miss the Top-10 again then there is a problem.
I would be shocked if: Poland fails to finish in Top-10 with Juries.
4. Serbia
Tv: 3rd - Juries: 8th
What I think it will happen: In Corpore Sano can and will qualify no matter what the running order is. Could achieve a similar result to Russia last year both in Semi-Final and Final. If the juries do not kill it, sky is the limit. Televoting will be enough by itself to help Konstrakta qualify.
I would be shocked if: Serbia misses the Final.
5. Finland
Tv: 5th - Juries: 6th
What I think it will happen: The running order, the brand name and Finland's history with rock entries implies that Rasmus will sail to the Final. Points are guaranteed from both constituencies and would not be surprised if they finish higher, but it would be very difficult to finish lower.
I would be shocked if: They win the Semi or disqualify.
6. Australia
Tv: 9th - Juries: 2nd
What I think it will happen: Australia traditionally suffers with Televoting and 'Not The Same' is destined to struggle as well. Jury points will be enough to secure the ticket to the Final. I reckon that the current odds will shorten throughout the week.
I would be shocked if: Australia finishes in Top-3 with televoters.
7. Belgium
Tv: 12th - Juries: 3rd
What I think it will happen: Belgium is another Jury-oriented entry that will struggle to secure televotes. Juries will most probably save it, however 1.34 to qualify seems very short.
I would be shocked if: Belgium finishes in Top-6 with the public vote.
8. Czechia
Tv: 6th - Juries: 11th
What I think it will happen: A good televote score and hopefully a Top-10 or near Top-10 Jury score will be more than enough to send them to the Final. Another song that suffers a bit on live. If it were on the other Semi, they would be in trouble. They are not 100% safe yet but many things have to go wrong to miss the Final.
I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-5 with Juries.
9. San Marino
Tv: 7th - Juries: 13th
What I think it will happen: I have four countries tied with a Total of twenty in ranking with Juries and Televoting. Anything could happen from 9-13, if I include Malta as well. I have San Marino leading that group and making it to the Final for the reasons I have described in their post. They are de facto Italy 2.0 with Achille Lauro being a big name in Italy and abroad and I'm sure RAI will treat them like theirs. Italy does not vote on that Semi and these 24 points could make the difference; however, the Italian diaspora will help. If he avoids a Bottom-3 with Juries he should be fine.
I would be shocked if: San Marino is not Top-10 with the public vote.
10. Azerbaijan
Tv: 11th - Juries: 9th
What I think it will happen: Azerbaijan could go both ways, but I still have them on my Q list. They have the know how to qualify and the quality to be Top-10 with both constituencies. The early draw is a concern, especially coming after Serbia, but on the other hand coming before Georgia does them a favour.
I would be shocked if: Azerbaijan finishes lower than 12th.
11. Cyprus
Tv: 10th - Juries: 10th
What I think it will happen: Another coin toss result. I do think that the point difference between 9th and 12th will be within 10-15 points. I am slightly biased with Cyprus, as I find the entry a bit Eurovision by numbers and that could hurt them now that the trend is authenticity. Staging will be crucial. If it is a mess, then they will be left behind.
I would be shocked if: They finish Top-5 with any of the two constituencies.
12. Israel
Tv: 8th - Juries: 12th
What I think it will happen: A bit optimistic here, but I remain open to good result for Israel either with Juries or public vote that could bring them close to the Final. Could be a hit and miss though and see them finish in Bottom-3.
I would be shocked if: They finish higher than 10th.
13. Malta
Tv: 15th - Juries: 7th
What I think it will happen: I might be harsh with their public vote ranking, but I find Malta's entry super generic and indifferent. I always respect their Jury 'magic' and they do have a chance to be in the Final. If they get there though, Bottom-3 is a certainty...
I would be shocked if: They finish in Top-10 with public vote or finish out of Top-10 with Juries.
14. Romania
Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th
What I think it will happen: Romania's recent track record with the three straight non qualifications will continue. Even if they do better with public vote, I struggle to see how jurors will vote for this one. Most of the friends are on the other Semi-Final as well.
This is my main bet, already tipped for Semi-Final 2
I would be shocked if: They finish Top-10 with Juries.
15. Georgia
Tv: 14th - Juries: 14th
What I think it will happen: Any country qualifying from now on will be a shocker qualifier. Georgia has a very experimental entry for a competitive environment. It is not a bad song but is not for Eurovision. I would be happy if they qualify, but I fail to find a qualification path for them.
I would be shocked if: They reach Top-10 with any of the two constituencies.
16. Montenegro
Tv: 16th - Juries: 16th
What I think it will happen: Another hit and miss for Montenegro. Better than their previous entries but still weak for the Top-10. They will get a few points from Serbia and North Macedonia and the occasional 1-3 points from elsewhere, but 50-60 points is their ceiling.
I would be shocked if: Yes, this would be the definition of a shocker qualification, even to that very weak Semi.
17. North Macedonia
Tv: 18th - Juries: 17th
What I think it will happen: The best possible result I can see for North Macedonia is avoiding Bottom-3. That could happen. Anything more than that would require to break the law of physics...
I would be shocked if: They can avoid Bottom-3 with both constituencies.
18. Ireland
Tv: 17th - Juries: 18th
What I think it will happen: Ireland wants to make history and finish last for a third time in a row. They are really close to that! I cannot decide who is more amateurish: The entry or RTE...
I would be shocked if: They somehow avoid finishing last.
And that's it for Semi-Final 2. I am sure that some of the rankings need some ironing and hopefully will get them right by the time of the show next week.
In the next few days, I will be posting my previews for the direct finalists.
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