It has been quiet for the whole week, missing any major drama a la Cyprus '18, Azerbaijan '19, Australia '19.
There have been some movements in the qualify/not qualify market, slightly more than usual because of the impact of the black hole sun on stage that has messed certain entries.
Everything was relatively quiet until Friday. And then Big-5 rehearsals and running order draw happened and like last year, the market has made a move.
Ukraine is still the big favourite and keeps shortening to Sergey Lazarev levels, currently @ 1.72. It remains to be seen if Kalush will have the same fate.
The big winner of the last few days is of course UK. It surpassed Sweden and Italy and now is second favourite @ 9.00. First the rehearsal and then the second half draw made the odds move to single digits. My concern is that because of the staging, UK will have to perform after a break, which means somewhere between #15-#17.
Unless EBU decides to act to promote UK and give a later slot, creating an extra break or pause to the show, UK will be performing in a no man's land. All the action in producer's era is concentrated in slots #10-#12 for the first half and #18-#25 in the second half.
There is no winner after #12 (Netherlands '19) until we reach #21 (Ukraine '16). It is the same with the runners-up. After #13 (Australia '16) the next runner-up is at #20 (France '21). The first slot with a podium in the second half is #18 (Russia '16-3rd).
Italy's underwhelming rehearsal has created more questions. Is RAI trying to avoid a second win in a row? Is it that Mahmood and Blanco are only tired and need some time to find their form again? Was it a clever idea to spend time on their tours instead of rehearsing? There is still time.
Sweden is the other sad face of the day slipping from third favourite to fourth and back to the double-digit odds. As is the case every year, Sweden brings more or less the staging of the Melfest and that is now compared to other countries' final product. It was just a correction of the market that sends Sweden where it should be trading, near the 15.00-20.00 area. They are now hoping for a second half draw to keep dreaming.
The day was bittersweet for the other upcoming favourite, Spain. The first half draw made their odds drift a bit, but still in a great distance from the group following. A podium result is still on the table; however, the win seems like a long shot. Something to keep in mind in case Ukraine gets a first half draw, it is probable that EBU will give Spain a latter spot and that might neutralize Ukraine's televote a bit...
My feeling is that there is still some time for someone else to rise to the occasion and sneak in the Top-5 or even higher. There are always the late bloomers that add some spice to the contest.
The dynamics are now moving faster, and the market responds quicker.
And some thoughts about the Semi-Finals so far.
Semi-Final 1: There is a group of six certain qualifiers: Ukraine, Greece, Norway, Netherlands, Armenia, Portugal.
There is also a second group that could end up both ways: Albania, Moldova, Latvia, Switzerland, Iceland.
Finally, there is the third group that has only theoretical chances to qualify: Austria, Lithuania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Denmark, and Slovenia.
The odds that I find most attractive now and I will be watching them closely is Albania's NQ and Iceland's Q.
Semi-Final 2: My certain qualifiers are: Sweden, Poland, Australia, Serbia, Czechia.
North Macedonia and Montenegro are the only no-hopers.
Everyone else could end up both ways: Estonia, Finland, Belgium, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Malta, San Marino, Israel, Georgia, Ireland.
Plenty of chances to back outsiders to qualify or shock non-qualifiers. Cyprus, Belgium, and Finland are the ones that I am monitoring.
I will be posting a full break down and tips for the two Semi-Finals on Tuesday and Thursday with some useful stats as well.
Enjoy the last relaxing day before the madness starts!!!
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