My guess is that Ukraine won the Semi-Final with Greece and Portugal or Netherlands being in Top-3.
The numbers suggest that Ukraine has won the Televoting (no news here) and Greece the Juries.
There were no big surprises, but metrics suggest that the Juries have saved two entries (Iceland, Switzerland) and that means that Albania and Austria were the ones that had to pay the price.
The most important moment of the night was the draw for the running order after the Semi-Final and Ukraine got a first half slot. The market did not seem to bother at all, and Ukraine's price continued to shorten after the first few minutes.
Currently trading at 1.50s, this is the shortest price that I remember before the night of the Final ever. It is interesting to see where the price will stop dropping.
Time to focus on Semi-Final 2 and enjoy the last hours of sleep before Sunday morning...
You can find my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings here. The first Semi-Final finished with an almost perfect 9/10. The second one though will be tougher to predict with more countries having a chance to qualify.
Finland (Q)
They were in the conversation for the Top-10 in the Final pre-rehearsal but that is not the case anymore. They have enough to qualify but the Q price is very very short (1.32). Jurors will show some respect to Rasmus and a decent Televoting can finish the job.
Tv: 7th - Juries: 10th - Total: 8th
Estimated Points: 105/145 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 45/65)
Israel (NQ)
This is too much of a mess failing to connect with the Televoters. I don't expect Jurors to show much love either. Everything points to the extension of the current non-qualifying streak from slot #2 to eight!
Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th - Total: 14th
Estimated Points:50/70 (Tv: 30/40 - Juries: 20/30)
Serbia (Q)
Europe has no idea what will hit them tonight! 'In Corpore Sano' is not a song! It's an artistic performance with so many levels! It has enormous potential, especially with the Televoters and Top-3 (2.88) is within reach. It is one of my selections for the Semi-Final.
Winning the Semi-Final (26.00) also hides some value.
A good draw in the Final could also mean a Top-10 result. The one to watch tonight.
Tv: 1st - Juries: 5th - Total: 3rd
Estimated Points:235/275 (Tv: 150/170 - Juries: 85/105)
Azerbaijan (NQ)
This will be one of the marginal calls. I think that it has enough to finish in Top-10 with the Juries, but I doubt it will have the same impact with televoters. Performing after Serbia will have an impact. Being a coin toss, lay at 1.60 has some value.
Tv: 11th - Juries: 9th - Total: 11th
Estimated Points: 80/120 (Tv: 35/55 - Juries: 45/65)
Georgia (NQ)
Could finish last or shock us all and qualify to the Final. I choose the first option but if you believe in them, Q is at 5.40. It is too experimental for Eurovision and jurors might perceive it as a joke entry.
Tv: 17th - Juries: 17th - Total: 17th
Estimated Points: 25/45 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 15/25)
Malta (Q)
Another marginal call that could land both sides. Malta has its way to 'work' with the Juries and make it to the Final. Staying close to the Top-10 in Televoting will be enough. The Q price trades at 2.12 for those who believe in Malta's abilities to influence jurors chances to qualify...
Tv: 10th - Juries: 7th - Total: 9th
Estimated Points: 105/145 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 65/85)
San Marino (Q)
I have tipped San Marino pre-rehearsals and I have not changed my mind. The staging is exactly what I was expecting from Achille Lauro. Juries will be harsh but being a glam rock entry and Achille Lauro being an established artist, it can partially get away. The arena will be with him and televoters will follow. Q at 2.20 still has value.
Tv: 5th - Juries: 11th - Total: 7th
Estimated Points: 120/160 (Tv:85/105 - Juries: 35/55)
Australia (Q)
We know what Australia brings on the table. A strong jury entry that could finish in Top-3 with them but lacks the Televoting appeal that could have turned it in a contender. This one is sailing to the Final.
Tv: 9th - Juries: 3rd - Total: 5th
Estimated Points: 155/195 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 110/130)
Cyprus (NQ)
Cyprus is playing with fire this year and is closer than ever to end the six qualifications streak. Andromache struggles vocally and the staging looks very static. The biggest disappointment in this Semi-Final.
I have backed its non-qualification since last week at 2.75. Currently is at 2.10-2.20 which is still acceptable.
Tv: 12th - Juries: 12th - Total: 12th
Estimated Points: 65/105 (Tv: 35/55 - Juries: 30/50)
Ireland (Q)
The biggest improvement of all songs. It came in Turin being favourite for the last place and is currently in the mix for the qualification. It really shines between Cyprus and North Macedonia.
It is still available at 4.00-4.50 in most of the betting companies and it is the definition of a value bet. Having UK, Malta, and Australia voting in the Semi is huge advantage.
Tv: 8th - Juries: 13th - Total: 10th
Estimated Points: 80/120 (Tv: 50/70 - Juries: 30/50)
North Macedonia (NQ)
Nothing to see here. North Macedonia will finish deservedly last.
Tv: 18th - Juries: 18th - Total: 18th
Estimated Points: 15/35 (Tv: 5/15 - Juries: 10/20)
Estonia (Q)
Middle of the road, doing what is needed to secure the qualification. I do not find value in any of the available markets.
Tv: 6th - Juries: 6th - Total: 6th
Estimated Points: 145/185 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 75/95)
Romania (NQ)
Romania needs to find its mojo again, but this is not the year. Being sandwiched between two superior entries does not help either. I tipped the non-qualification just before the rehearsals started at 1.80. Currently is at 1.44...
Tv: 14th - Juries: 16th - Total: 16th
Estimated Points: 40/60 (Tv: 20/30 - Juries: 20/30)
Poland (Q)
It is now or never for Poland! If they fail once again to convince the Juries that they have a worthy song, I do not know when or if they will ever make it. The diaspora has been absent as well the last few years. It remains to be seen if Poland is the one that could sneak in the Top-5 that looks unbreakable for a week now.
Winning the Semi-Final is at 4.50-6.00 and it does have a value if you believe that Sweden is vulnerable.
Tv: 2nd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st
Estimated Points: 280/320 (Tv: 140/160 - Juries: 140/160)
Montenegro (NQ)
Unfortunately for Vladana, the song is not the same level with competition which is stiff. Bottom-3 is guaranteed.
Tv: 16th - Juries: 14th - Total: 15th
Estimated Points: 40/65 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 25/40)
Belgium (NQ)
There is no other country that has failed to qualify so many times in the Final, even though it was in the Top-10 in odds before the Semi.
Last year the Juries saved Hooverphonic. In 2018 and 2019 they failed miserably, especially in 2018 when they were among the favourites before the contest.
The problem is always the uninspired staging. There is no exception this year and Juries will not be enough to save them.
Belgium Not to qualify at 2.50 is one of my tips for tonight!
Tv: 15th - Juries: 8th - Total: 13th
Estimated Points: 65/95 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 50/70)
Sweden (Q)
The big favourite to win the Semi-Final and among the contenders. I might be underestimating Sweden this year, but I fail to see winning potential. It is more authentic than the recent Swedish entries, however it lacks impact. I have the feeling that recent Swedish struggles with the public vote will continue. I get the feeling that this is a semi-finished product. It was enough to win Melfest, but not enough to contend in Eurovision.
For that reason, I find Sweden's odds to win the Semi-Final (1.25-1.45) way too short. Lay is the only value bet here.
Tv: 4th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 2nd
Estimated Points: 245/285 (Tv: 110/130 - Juries: 135/155)
Czechia (Q)
One of the first songs selected for the season, a few shaky vocals in the pre-parties and Czechia was downgraded to an ok song that might struggle but will qualify to the Final. However, they delivered when it mattered, and everyone remembered that this is a great song.
Top-3 in the Semi-Final at 4.20 is value!
Tv: 3rd - Juries: 4th - Total: 4th
Estimated Points: 225/265 (Tv: 125/145 - Juries: 100/120)
And that's it! I do not think that Semi-Final 2 is higher on quality than the first one. Exactly because of that there are more entries that are in with a chance.
In Semi-Final 1 there were 12 entries competing for the 10 spots. Tonight, we have 13 contenders and one or two potential shock qualifiers.
The safe qualifiers are Poland, Sweden, Serbia, Czechia, Estonia, Australia.
After the leading pack there are 7 countries fighting for 4 spots: San Marino, Finland, Malta, Ireland, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Belgium. I have chosen the first 4.
I expect a similar scoreboard as in Semi-Final 2 back in 2018 where the point difference between #9 and #13 was just 16 points. The public vote back then saved 3 countries and Juries 1.
And what about betting?
This Semi-Final offers plenty opportunities and prices for different betting styles.
Back in March when I wrote my betting resolution, I made a promise to myself to reduce my bets for the Semi-Finals.
I have already suggested
San Marino to qualify @ 2.30 x 25 units (23.04)
Romania not to qualify @ 1.80 x 55 units (27.04)
That leaves me with 20 available units originally invested in this Semi-Final and
276.7 units available from my settled bets in Semi-Final 1. I have chosen to use only a tiny part of those units for today and invest the rest of them in the Final.
My additions today will be
Ireland to qualify @ 4.00 x 20 units
Belgium not to qualify @ 2.62 x 25 units (bet365)
and I cannot resist to add 2 value/fun bets
Serbia to win the Semi-Final @ 26.00 x 5 units (available in different companies)
Poland to win the Semi-Final @ 5.50 x 20 units (it is available higher in certain betting companies)
That brings my total units invested in this Semi-Final to 150. I just need 2/6 successful bets to take my money back. Not bad at all!
You can find all my bets for Semi-Finals and the Final here.
Good luck with all your bets! My next post will be on Saturday morning and of course it will be about the D-day. I
f I find the time and energy, I might post something tomorrow with key numbers regarding the running order and the hints that we might have.
I will also be on twitter to comment during and after the Semi-Final.
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