Wins: -
Podium: -
Top-10: -
Bottom-5: 6 (2014-22nd, 2015-27th, 2016-24th, 2018-24th, 2019-26th, 2021-26th)
This could be the turning point for the UK which in the 21st century has finished in the Top-10 just two times (2002-3rd and 2009-5th).
Out of these twenty entries so far, just four finished in Top-15...
'Spaceman' reminds me of France '16. Coincidentally, UK and France had similar trajectories from 2002 up to that year.
J'ai Cherche' proved that France could do Eurovision well and, even though it ended up sixth after being among the favourites pre-rehearsal, it put France back to the map leading to the second-place last year.
I would expect something similar to happen with UK. 'Spaceman' might do well with the Juries, has a slim chance to win them as well, and end up in Top-10 with public vote that will not be enough for the win. (France '16 was 3rd with Juries but with only 148pts and 9th with Public vote with 109pts).
Could UK contend for the win? Maybe, but it needs the perfect storm. It does need a second half draw and a slot between #20-24. It also needs most of the favourites on the other half. It needs weak entries around it. It also needs a momentum and that unfortunately will go to Ukraine's favour,
The most important, it will need 250-300 Televoting points. The best Televoting score that UK has had in the Semi-Final era is 166 points in 2011 (if 50/50 system was applicable). If you check the chart above, UK never finished higher than 20th with the Public vote in the 50/50 era.
The past does not dictate the present or future, (Austria '14, Portugal '17) however you need the perfect song.
My humble opinion...
'Spaceman' is not that perfect song I am afraid. I am open to the possibility that it could win the Juries (my current projection is 3rd-5th) but I struggle to see a Top-5 finish with the public and that is not enough for the win.
Add to that the classic overreaction of the market, which is UK-centered and you have the perfect m ix for disaster if you are betting on single or near single digit odds.
For the moment UK is a certain Top-10 entry. If Juries go its way, could reach Top-4/5 but it does need a small miracle to go further. We have seen stranger things happening and I am not completely ruling out a win, but with UK we must be extra cautious (those who were betting back in 2014 remember...).
4th-10th
Give me more Data... ('14-'21 SF Averages)
Ranking: 23.4 (Js:20.4 - TV:22.3)
Points: 46 (Js:34.7 - TV:11.3)
Jury to Televoting points Ratio: 3.07
No comments:
Post a Comment