This is a post I have written and re-written multiple times in my mind since last May, but I was always leaving the task for later, waiting for the dust to settle a bit and find the energy to write my thoughts and do my stocktaking.
The elephant in the room...
Let's start with the elephant in the room. I was one of the many Eurovision bloggers that failed to predict the Ukrainian win, even though I never said that it could not happen.
Back in March, one of my first posts for the season was named The Eurovision year that will live in infamy I gave my reasoning there why I thought that Ukraine would not win the Contest.
People will argue that Ukraine was the obvious choice, and it is funny how most if not all the professional Eurovision punters missed it.
I can talk for myself and the answer is rather simple: The betting odds were wrong for the most part of the season. I was not discounting Ukraine to win; I was simply not finding any value at the Ukrainian price and at that moment or to be precise at any moment until the Jury voting started.
My betting mantra is ' Do not place money on a bet unless there is some value there'. I am very happy to take a bet that I will not win but the odds are in my favour, instead of taking a bet that will pay off but not at the right price.
And the Ukraine price had only an exceedingly small window of opportunity pre-voting: Pre-Vidbir when Alina Pash was the favourite and was trading in double digits and for a few days when Kalush was announced, and the price drifted to 15-20s.
If someone bought Ukraine at that point, then hats off from me. The rest of the Ukraine backers made money but, on a discount, given the information that was available at that time.
The great call that I made at that time was not to lay Ukraine even though the price was really short.
Analysis wise, my call was 100% wrong. Eurovision winner is always about emotions. The song that will make you feel the most powerful sentiments is the one that wins.
Stefania was already emotionally charged because of the war situation and people would already be connected. UK and Spain that finished second and third, both had great staging, but the context was far off.
Sweden failed to connect the viewers and Italy, which could compete with Ukraine, got lost for several reasons (RAI sabotaging a second win, the three-minute version not feeling polished, artists focused on their personal projects etc).
The other bad call on my behalf was the reading of the running order, thinking that was still game on.
Regarding the running order, I am still confused that producers/EBU gave Ukraine #12, keeping in mind that they want to produce a show that will keep the suspense till the very end.
Ukraine would have won performing at any slot, so why not giving them an earlier one to have a smaller winning margin and keep the tension until the last score revealed?
First, kudos to EBU for playing the game fair and square, not trying to hurt Ukraine's chances. My guess is that after seeing the Semi-Final result, where Ukraine struggled with the Juries (135pts-3rd), EBU thought that the Final's result is still open and having no metrics for UK, Spain, and Italy, decided to give Ukraine the treatment that a Semi-Final winner would get. They just tried to lower the televoting impact by placing all the televoting magnets close to them.
Ukraine's televoting score is jaw dropping and never saw it coming, but that is the fate of someone that relies on numbers and works with averages. There will always be a black swan.
Betting wise, there were multiple ways for someone to make a profit this year, without touching Ukraine, or touching it during the voting.
It was in fact a year that someone could get paid for three different winners during the voting and make some good money.
Patience is a virtue, and it does pay off when betting at Eurovision. My theory since early March when the Ukrainian price dropped to 1.90-2.50 was that there will be a small window of opportunity during the Jury voting where Ukraine will be trailing, and the price will drift.
The same thing happened last year with Italy as well, when the 2.60-2.80 suddenly became 4.00-5.00.
Ukraine was trading at 3.00-3.50 during the first ten-twelve countries and I managed to cover any losses in the winner's market. I have made a small profit as well.
The second option that could guarantee a great return was laying Spain and UK. Spain shortened from 20+ to 2.50-2.80, more or less six to eight times your money and UK from 11.00 to 3.00-3.50, giving you back three times your money.
I made a bad call there keeping all my Spain and UK positions put aiming for the big money after I have secured that there will be no loss in that market and my overall book for the year.
Had I had the chance to act again. I would have closed my positions and would be celebrating with my great profits.
The third option was to avoid the winner's market completely and focus on other markets instead of betting Ukraine at 1.35-1.45 when you could have UK for Top-4 at 1.70-1.90, Spain for Top-4 at 2.40-2.60, not to mention investing in these countries earlier in the season.
The Ukraine situation made me more cautious, and I have opted to invest more money in Top-4/5/10 than I would usually do.
My point is there were tens of available odds that were higher than Ukraine's win and were equally if not more probable at the time.
Overall, it could have been a momentous year for my bets, but I risked a bit more after I made sure that I wouldn't lose any money this year.
The question marks for 2023...
There are many things that happened this year and signal the end of an era for the Contest. Ukraine's win might have been the result that most part of the Europe hoped for but has opened pandora's box for Eurovision.
Are politics back for good?
To be honest politics were always present in the Contest, at least in certain areas (East Europe, Balkans) but last May the whole continent went all in. I really hope that the Contest will not turn to a politics/diplomacy tool for countries or political parties.
Ukraine will be present in 2023. I hope and wish that the war will be over by next May, but what happens if they are still in war? Will people vote for them again?
I truly hope that we will not have to answer that question when the Eurovision season starts.
Will UK's hosting somehow impact its chances to win if it has an exceptionally good song?
Giving the chance to the runner up to host was the obvious choice and BBC is one of the few broadcasters that would not mind hosting again in 2024, but could that hurt their chance to win?
It could go both ways, but I would have preferred a country which has a poor recent record or has been trying for years without being able to win to host and let the heavy guns win it to host.
Germany, France, Malta, or Cyprus would have been better options in my opinion.
Will EBU do something about the voting scandal in Semi-Final 2? Should there be a disciplinary code agreed and voted by the Broadcasters?
This is the most troubling matter of all. It has happened in the past and is happening every year with certain countries that get away with it, but that was just too much. I am still in shock that Malta was not involved in this.
The problem is that if EBU decides to take any measures at all, there is the danger of massive withdrawals that would leave the Contest with not enough countries to have two Semi-Finals and the most important one with less funding and less viewers.
There are ways to 'subtly' punish a country for wrongdoings but making everything public did not go well with those broadcasters.
Having already missed Turkey, Bosnia, Russia, Belarus, we are getting closer to the day that the Semi-Finals will have 13-14 participants each bringing the quality level down.
However, letting someone get away with it will encourage more countries to do some monkey business.
Swapping a Jury with an algorithm does not work either, giving extra power to certain jurors that ended up voting and representing more than one country.
A point deduction (10/20% of the Jury points?) or a ranking penalty (missing a place or two) for the current contest would make Broadcasters think twice before getting involved.
There is a better option to avoid the whole problem though and it brings the next question.
Is it time for a new voting system or a voting reform?
EBU likes to reshuffle the voting system every few years (2004, 2008, 2009, 2016). The split voting works better than the previous formats for sure but there is room for improvement.
There is nothing that could be done with Televoting, changing the 50/50 split to 60/40 or something similar would be a headache and would give a boost to the countries that have diasporas again and that leaves the Juries...
Having a 5-member Jury decided by the Broadcasters is the main source of the lobbying problem.
A 10/12/15-member Jury would reduce the impact of each juror's score to the overall result and would give a more balanced result and that would be the first step.
To avoid using an algorithm, EBU could either appoint a replacement Jury for each country that would be used in case of an irregular voting pattern or could appoint half of the members of each Jury.
Will the gap and discrepancies between Juries and Televoting will get bigger, or has the trend ended?
The last Jury Winner that won Eurovision is Portugal in 2017 and the last and only Jury Winner that won despite losing the Televoting is Sweden 2015 (if 50/50 system is applied).
The last four Winners finished third (Israel '18, Netherlands '19) and fourth (Italy '21, Ukraine '22). Add Ukraine '16 that finished second and Portugal is the only Jury Winner that won in the last six Contests (1/6), when 6 out of 7 Jury Winners won in the 2009-2015 era...
Having a Winner that finished fifth with the Juries seems more probable now than having a universal Winner...
My 2022 retrospective resolution...
What would I keep:
- My Semi-Final 1 analysis and tips . 9/10 correct qualifiers and 3/4 successful tips, with Albania non qualification @4.50 being the cherry on top of the cake and Austria non qualifying @2.00 and finishing 15th.
- Backing Spain in Top-4/5/10 (3.46-2.47-1.80) markets and head-to-head versus Sweden @ 2.62 and @27 for the win.
- Backing Serbia to qualify/Top-3 in SF/best Balkan/h2h versus France markets (1.40-2.84-4.10-1.75) and Top-5/10 (5.28-2.27)
- Backing UK in Top-4/5 (2.40-2.15).
-My overall Final analysis except for Ukraine and Italy.
What would I have done differently:
- I would have closed my Spain and UK position during the Jury voting when they were trading @3.00-4.00 and secure a great profit instead of going all in after making sure I would not lose any money.
- Be more open to Ukraine's potential and Italy's signs.
- Tipping Cyprus NQ (2.56) and Serbia's Top-3 in SF (2.84) instead of the Belgium's NQ and Poland's win. Ireland's and San Marino's qualification bets had value and I would be happy to take them again.
Lessons learned for the future:
- This was the first time ever that I have watched most of the national finals to have a better understanding but in the end, I have ended up bringing more biases and noise when I had to compare the songs in a different field.
I will try to go back to my previous routine watching only San Remo and Melodifestivalen and just hear/watch the rest of the Winners.
- The Eurovision bubble is unavoidable, especially if you have a blog and a twitter account but I will try to minimise my exposure during the pre-rehearsal season that lasts for many weeks and usually does not add any kind of knowledge or useful information.
- Be more open to the dynamics that change during the Contest and try to maintain a clear and open mind when it matters the most, the final week.
My 2023 Resolution
I am thinking of introducing a few new elements to my analysis for the 2023 season and will need your feedback on this one as well.
I will be posting more often from now on, even in the off season when there is more time to analyse patterns and historical data and focus more on the incoming information and data during the Eurovision season.
I will not be analysing any of the national finals except for San Remo and maybe Melodifestivalen, but I will introduce a new format for every song that is announced/revealed and will be called 'The First Impression'.
I would like to read what you would like to see in this blog for the new season. Feel free to comment here or in Twitter or by sending me a message or email.
Looking forward for the new season to start!
