Months of speculations and different narratives regarding the winner will be tested in the next few days.
All eyes will be in Ukraine this evening, during and after the show.
The market is still behind Ukraine that was trading as low as 1.63 yesterday. During the Jury show, we had some early cracks with the price drifting slightly to 1.75 and the reason was Italy's dress rehearsal!
The million-dollar question, or to be more precise the tens of million pounds question, is if Ukraine can win the Contest not based on merit but based on the situation and the waves of support going its way.
After the show we will also have the running order draw. If Ukraine gets a second half draw, which is the most probable scenario* (already 4 of the Big-5 performing in first half and only UK performing is second), then I am expecting the price to shorten more, reaching levels that we have never seen before the voting in Eurovision.
* The order of announcing the finalists is the order they draw their running order. If Ukraine is announced late, that might be a small hint of how EBU will treat Ukraine in the Final.
Enough with the theories! It is time for action! Ten days ago, I have posted my Pre-Rehearsal Power Rankings and a thing or two have changed.
Last year my predictions for both Semi-Final were 8/10. I will be happy with a similar result.
Albania
One of my case studies for this year. I find Albania's entry too aggressive and messy to connect with the casual viewers. In the last three competitions Albania was saved three times: one by the televoters (2019) and two times by the Juries (2018,2021). Their four qualifications in that span were marginals (2015-8th, 2018-8th, 2019-9th, 2021-10th).
Albania has some friends in the Semi-Final, call me Italy, Greece, Switzerland, and Croatia, but they are missing their best allies which are Montenegro, and North Macedonia.
Add those facts to the aggressiveness of the song, which reminds me of Armenia '19 and Israel '14 and the value does not lie on Q (1.45) but on non-qualification currently @ 4.50 in Betfair Sportsbook.
Tv: 9th - Juries: 12th - Total: 11th
Estimated Points: 75/115 (Tv: 45/65 - Juries: 30/50)
Latvia
I still believe that 'Eat Your Salad' is a joke entry but I respect its dynamic. I would not mind if it were left out and there is still a chance it might, but Televote will be enough to save it.
Tv: 6th - Juries: 9th - Total: 6th
Estimated Points: 145/185 (Tv: 90/110 - Juries: 55/75)
Lithuania
I am far from certain with this one. It can go both ways and is the definition of borderline. Being in the middle of the road might be enough to secure the 10th and final spot for the Final.
Q @2.82 has value for those who are sentimental.
Tv: 11th - Juries: 10th - Total: 10th
Estimated Points: 80/120 (Tv: 35/55 - Juries: 45/65)
Switzerland
Another hit and miss entry. It is not written off, but I reckon that during the show its odds will start drifting. There are better jury-bait packages in the Semi-Final and the dark stage is not adding anything to the song. Running order does not help either. It needs a Top-6 with the Juries as a worst-case scenario to qualify because its televoting appeal is minimal.
Tv: 15th - Juries: 8th - Total: 12th
Estimated Points: 75/105 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 60/80)
Slovenia
Nothing changed here. The goal is to avoid last place and will probably fail to succeed.
Tv: 17th - Juries: 17th - Total: 17th
Estimated Points: 20/40 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 10/20)
Ukraine
The absolute case study that we will be mentioning for ages. This is the big night for Ukraine and remains to be seen how people in the arena and at home will react. I must admit that I am not impressed with the staging, but this song is not about music anymore. It can still win both the Semi-Final and the Grand Final, but I think that it will find strong resistance from Greece, at least in the Semi.
Tv: 1st - Juries: 3rd - Total: 2nd
Estimated Points: 260/300 (Tv: 150/170 - Juries: 110/130)
Bulgaria
Bulgaria will reach its goal of avoiding the Bottom-3 and especially the last place. Qualification is out of reach; the odds though have some value at least for those who use the two trading companies.
@17.00 I wouldn't blame someone if they placed a fun bet (I have😊).
Tv: 13th - Juries: 15th - Total: 14th
Estimated Points: 30/60 (Tv: 15/35 - Juries: 15/25)
Netherlands
Netherlands will be sailing to the Final! It has a chance to crack Top-3 tonight, but the staging might affect its chances. Still in the mix for a Top-10 result in the Final and my favourite entry for this year!
Tv: 5th - Juries: 5th - Total: 5th
Estimated Points: 190/230 (Tv: 95/115 - Juries: 95/115)
Moldova
There was never a doubt about Moldova qualifying. They bring loads of energy that is infectious. The Q odds are too short (1.44), but qualification might be marginal.
Tv: 7th - Juries: 11th - Total: 9th
Estimated Points: 110/150 (Tv: 70/90 - Juries: 40/60)
Portugal
Another one qualifying easily. Portugal does have a decent chance to crack Top-3 tonight and its odds are not bad at all (3.6). This is another one to watch as it has Top-10 potential as well.
Tv: 4th - Juries: 2nd - Total: 4th
Estimated Points: 230/270 (Tv: 110/130 - Juries: 120/140)
Croatia
I had Croatia a borderline non-qualifier, but the messy staging has made sure that Croatia will miss another Final. Not sure where they can find the points to make it.
Tv: 14th - Juries: 16th - Total 15th
Estimated Points: 30/50 (Tv: 15/25 - Juries: 15/25)
Denmark
Denmark failed to elevate its staging and its chances. Some allies in the Semi-Final can help them avoid the last place.
Tv: 16th - Juries: 14th - Total: 16th
Estimated Points: 25/50 (Tv: 10/20 - Juries: 15/30)
Austria
Austria had a roller coaster ride this week. Pia Maria's vocals were an issue during rehearsals and Austria had fallen in the non-qualification zone. Yesterday, somehow improved and with the help of the pre-recorded backing vocals, Austria climbed back to the Top-10. I am still not convinced that the Juries gave Austria an out of jail card. I might underestimate their Televoting power though. Would not be surprised if they qualify.
Tv: 12th - Juries: 13th - Total: 13th
Estimated Points: 50/90 (Tv: 30/50 - Juries: 20/40)
Iceland
The one that steadily elevated during rehearsals. Iceland is in with a chance. The song could do very well both with Juries and Televoters and has some allies that could offer the much-needed points for the qualification (Denmark, Norway, Latvia, Netherlands). The Q odds (2.4-2.6) are the ones with the best value for tonight. I am more than happy having Iceland in my book to qualify @ 3.5!
Tv: 10th - Juries: 7th - Total: 8th
Estimated Points: 110/150 (Tv: 40/60 - Juries: 70/90)
Greece
'Die Together' was in the conversation for a good finish, somehow it got forgotten and now it re-emerges back on the surface. I do not know if Greece has enough to crack Top-5 in the Final, it might do as it is currently gaining momentum, but winning the Semi-Final is possible. I know that there is the elephant in the room but Winning the Semi @ 5.00 does have value and I will back it. Juries will give enough to elevate it I reckon.
Tv: 3rd - Juries: 1st - Total: 1st
Estimated Points: 270/320 (Tv: 130/150 - Juries: 140/170)
Norway
The one that might threaten Ukraine's televoting win. It can gain a momentum as most of the viewers will be seeing it for the first time. Get ready for a market overreaction. Sailing to the final, could also finish in Top-3 but I do not find value at the current price (1.77).
Tv: 2nd - Juries: 4th - Total: 3rd
Estimated Points: 240/280 (Tv: 140/160 - Juries: 100/120)
Armenia
A beautiful way to close the Semi Final. Some might find the staging funny, but Armenia has done enough to secure a place in the Final.
Tv: 8th - Juries: 6th - Total: 7th
Estimated Points: 140/180 (Tv: 60/80 - Juries: 80/100)
And that's it! I am 100% certain for six of my qualifiers: Greece, Ukraine, Norway, Portugal, Netherlands, Armenia.
I have Latvia, Iceland, and Moldova in the almost certain qualifiers and Lithuania in the 10th spot is the vulnerable one.
Albania, Switzerland, or Austria might grab that one.
And it is time for my betting tips!
I have already tipped
Austria not to qualify @2.00 x 25 units (17.04)
After doing a full circle, I find that bet at the same price after 3 weeks!
There are 75 units left to this Semi Final and I will split them in the following bets
Greece Semi-Final Winner @ 4.80 (trading companies) x 10 units
Albania not to qualify @ 4.50 (Betfair Sportsbook) x 30 units
Iceland to qualify @ 2.62 (trading companies) x 35 units
I need 2/4 successful bets to have a profitable Semi-Final.
You can find all my bets for Semi-Finals and the Final here.
Good luck with all your bets! I will be posting on Thursday for Semi-Final 2 and will be on twitter to comment during and after the Semi-Final.
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