Semi Final 2 - Pre Rehearsal Power Rankings

 

We have game! Rehearsals have started and let's have a look at the Power Rankings for SF2.

This is by far a weaker SF and that sometimes creates a different kind of problem.

 In SF1 we have 12 entries that deserve to be in the Final. In SF2 we have 7 entries that deserve a place in the Final and then there is another group of 6 or maybe 7 entries that will fight for the remaining 3 tickets.

They all have their pros and cons and it is a matter of small details that will define the final ranking. 

So let's start!

1. Switzerland

Televoting: 1  - Juries: 1 

Odds: Q 1.01 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 13.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 2.04 (exchange) - 1.90 (betting site)

Estimation: They are the big favourite in a very weak SF. This is their chance to build up the hype. 

Switzerland needs the win for a good running order in the Final, ideally in the second half to maintain their hopes for the trophy. Even if Switzerland comes short at the Final, the win in SF looks a pretty safe option, but the current price does not have any value.

2. Iceland

Televoting: 2  - Juries: 3 

Odds: Q 1.08 (exchange market), Q:1.04 -NQ: 10.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 7.60 (exchange) - 6.50 (betting site)

Estimation: I don't think that Iceland will be in Top-5 on Saturday but in that SF I fail to find a reason why they will finish outside the Top-3. Juries will buy the hype/hit concept and Televoting appeal is ideal for a family show.

If Swiss and Bulgarian packages are underwhelming, a fun bet on the Semi Win would be a thought.

3. Bulgaria

Televoting: 4  - Juries: 2 

Odds: Q 1.09 (exchange market), Q:1.03 -NQ: 10.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 4.20 (exchange) - 3.40 (betting site)

Estimation: One of the biggest enigmas so far. It has lots of potential but we need to see the staging. Is now in the dark horse territory and  that could be a good thing for Bulgaria.

Building a momentum at the right moment is always a plus. We will know in a few days which way this one will take. 

4. Finland

Televoting: 5  - Juries: 4

Odds: Q 1.09 (exchange market), Q:1.06 -NQ: 8.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 13.00 (exchange) - 12.00 (betting site)

Estimation: Finland will bring some noise and aims for a high placing. The only rock entry of the SF in a good running order. What else could they ask for?

Sailing to the final. For the moment there is no value in any of the SF bets.

5. San Marino

Televoting: 3  - Juries: 9 

Odds: Q 1.30 (exchange market), Q:1.20 -NQ: 4.33 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 27.00 (exchange) - 13.00 (betting site)

Estimation: This one can go really bad if Flo Rida won't show (probably won't) and he was included in the staging set up. San Marino does not have a good staging record. 

I do respect its Televoting potential hence it's so high, but could end up being a shocker non-qualifier. The NQ price might hide some value if staging is a mess.

6. Greece

Televoting: 7  - Juries: 6 

Odds: Q 1.06 (exchange market), Q:1.12 -NQ: 5.50 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 25.00 (exchange) - 21.00 (betting site)

Estimation: A safe bet both with Juries and Televoting. Middle of the road, unless Fokas has a really big surprise for us with the staging.

Stefania is a de-facto second Dutch entry, having the support of the locals as well.

7. Moldova

Televoting: 6  - Juries: 8

Odds: Q 1.36 (exchange market), Q:1.30 -NQ: 3.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 120 (exchange) - 34 (betting site)

Estimation: Not one for the Juries, but with the amount of mediocre songs in the SF is quite safe unless the staging goes bonkers.

Kirkorov has enough experience to not do a mistake like that.

There is no value in any of the odds for the moment.

8. Austria

Televoting: 13  - Juries: 5

Odds: Q 2.32 (exchange market), Q:2.20 -NQ: 1.61 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 110 (exchange) - 101 (betting site)

Estimation: The one to be saved by the Juries. The public might not go for this one but it has enough to secure a Top-5 with the other constituency and that might be all that it needs. 

Austria has a first, a second and a fourth place with Juries in the last 5 SFs. Back in 2017 they qualified after finishing  14th with the Televoting and that says it all.

The 2.32 has definitely value...

9. Serbia

Televoting: 8  - Juries: 12

Odds: Q 1.70 (exchange market), Q: 1.57 -NQ: 2.25 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 230  (exchange) - 34 (betting site)

Estimation: And this is where uncertainty starts. Serbia has a slight advantage from a bunch of entries that are all marginal. Serbia looks like the televoting saved entry of the SF, unless they overplay the sexy - slutty look.

One to watch out for a betting opportunity.

10. Czechia

Televoting: 9  - Juries: 11

Odds: Q 2.96 (exchange market), Q: 2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 250  (exchange) - 101 (betting site)

Estimation: I still believe that this one is a sleeper that will come alive on stage. It is catchy, has a hook and is funny enough to attract televotes from everywhere and force the jurors not to punish it. 

It might be a hit and miss but I reckon that it will be close to qualifying so a price around 3.00 has definitely value.

11. Portugal

Televoting: 14  - Juries: 7

Odds: Q 2.14 (exchange market), Q: 2.10 -NQ: 1.66 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 50  (exchange) - 34 (betting site)

Estimation: Could the Juries save a second entry? If the answer is yes, then Portugal is your obvious choice.

A classic balad that will get some love from jurors but comes short with public. It's far from being written off. 

The Q has some value if the staging is good.

12. Estonia

Televoting: 12  - Juries: 10

Odds: Q 2.70 (exchange market), Q: 2.50 -NQ: 1.50 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 290  (exchange) - 101 (betting site)

Estimation: If Estonia had a later running order, this one would be a 50/50 entry. It stands a chance only if San Marino and Czechia fail to stage their entries. Otherwise it will probably be forgotten. 

Still in the mix but its chances look slim.

13. Denmark

Televoting: 10  - Juries: 13

Odds: Q 2.42 (exchange market), Q: 2.25 -NQ: 1.57 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 280  (exchange) - 101 (betting site)

Estimation: If Televote manages to save a second song that will be Denmark. It is my personal guilty pleasure for the year and it has the Pimp Slot. 

In 24 double SFs we only had two entries that failed to qualify to the Final. That gives Denmark an extra push.

Having the Pimp Slot at 2.42 is a value! Excluding Latvia in 2017 that finished last and Malta in 2016, the other 10 entries of the 50/50 era managed to finish in Top-4 with Televoting. 

It is a correct bet even if it is lost.

14. Albania 

Televoting: 11  - Juries: 14

Odds: Q 1.85 (exchange market), Q: 1.72 -NQ: 2.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 16  (exchange) - 26 (betting site)

Estimation: Another entry that has a chance to qualify. Personally I have it as NQ but nothing would surprise me.

The point difference between 8th and 14th place won't be more than 20-30 points and Albania has enough allies to secure some of the much needed points to reach the qualifying threshold.

Another one to watch out and see where it's heading.

15. Latvia

Televoting: 15  - Juries: 16

Odds: Q 3.05 (exchange market), Q: 2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 85  (exchange) - 101 (betting site)

Estimation: We are now entering the no man's land. Staged smart and can achieve a Slovenia 2018 result but...

I believe it will be aggressive enough to miss both Juries and Televoters. 

If it drifts to near double digits just before the SF then a fun bet would be an option.

16. Georgia

Televoting: 16  - Juries: 15

Odds: Q 5.00 (exchange market), Q: 4.00 -NQ: 1.22 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 290  (exchange) - 201 (betting site)

Estimation: Georgia insists on sending unique entries and they should get a credit for this. Result wise though they are suffering. 

It will be a success if they manage to avoid bottom-3 in any if the two constituencies.

17. Poland

Televoting: 17  - Juries: 17

Odds: Q 3.80 (exchange market), Q: 3.25 -NQ: 1.33 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 310  (exchange) - 51 (betting site)

Estimation.: That song is giving me the impression that was made for no one. A classic b-league Swedish production that somehow sneaked in Eurovision. 

Running order does not help either.

It's Betting Time!!!

I have mentioned in my previous post that I will have a book of 1000 units ( 200 for each SF + 600 for the Final).

The units won after each Sf can be used either for the next SF or the Final ( eg if SF1 returns are 350 units, these could be added to my bets in SF2 or Final).

So far for SF-1 I have tipped

Azerbaijan NQ - 3.25 - 40 units

SF-1 new total: 160 units

For SF-2 I have tipped

Denmark Q - 2.40 - 25 units

and today I'm adding

Czechia Q - 3.00 - 25 units

Austria Q - 2.30 - 50 units

SF-2 new total: 100 units

New post is coming after rehearsals of SF2 are over, going back to examine the big favourites and their chances.