Qualifying Record: 5/13
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/6
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12
Current Country Streak: 2 NQ
Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ
Poland, the country the Televoting legend! Four years in a row (2014-2017) PV saved the Poles and gave them the qualification and two more times was not enough to save them! Before 2014, Poland had only qualified once.
I do have a conspiracy theory for Poland this year. We know that back in 2019 they have qualified to the Final but because of the Belarus Jury mess up it was too little too late. The producers in order to make up for the mess, they promised to create an entry for Poland hence why we have a Swedish team behind The Ride! I know! I pushed it too far. There is a problem though...
Rafal does not have the acceptance of the Polish public and the like - dislike ratio in the official Eurovision channel in YouTube has reached Belarussian levels with an analogy of 2 dislikes for every like...
The Ride is another 80's nostalgia entry, a typical example of Eurovision by numbers a la Melfest rejects. The song lacks any sign of originality or soul.
It would still have chance to qualify if diaspora were behind it but it looks like that this won't be the case this year.
Will qualify because... EBU will try to find a way to repay for the damage caused back in 2019. Swedish PR will guarantee enough Jury votes to reach the qualifying threshold.
Will not qualify because... It is among the weakest entries in the weakest SF.
Diaspora disapproves.
Realistic expectations for the Semi: 15th - 17th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Montenegro 17' (NQ)
Interesting Facts about the Running Order: Usually reserved for a ballad has a decent qualifying record. The only upbeat entry to qualify was Czechia 19'.
What happens next...: Unfortunately for Poland not much. Being the weakest entry of the first half, when only 5 countries will qualify in best case scenario, is not a good sign.
If, and that is a big if, Poland qualifies then I expect a decent Televoting result, not big enough to save them from Bottom-5 though.
A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: NQ with 80%+ probability. If in Final 22nd- 26th.
Some More Data: Poland has some remarkably interesting patterns in the Final. One year finishing 8th and the next 22nd is stunning! They will finish 8th next time they qualify! Sure bet!
They have managed to finish 8th twice despite ranking 23rd and 25th with Juries!!!
The best result with Juries is 23rd!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment