Qualifying Record: 4/4
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/4
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 8/12
Current Country Streak: 4 Q
Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ
Australia is back for its most challenging entry. Montaigne has a very unique voice and Technicolour is something out of the ordinary. Will that traslate to points is the big question.
Australia is relying on the juries to achieve good results and Technicolour will be no different, the problem is if Juries will appreciate it. PV wise I think it will struggle.
The running order per se has a good track record, but it is my understanding that producers have chosen a different path this year. Usually at 5 there was the first uplifting song after the opening act and that means great Televoting Results.
Pure Televoting has 10/12 Top-10 results with 5 podium rankings ( 1-1-3). Juries on the other hand have only 5/12 Top-10 with 5th place being the best result. This is very good for Australia that needs PV, but Australia has Lithuania, Russia and Sweden before its turn that are all uplifting and that is a big burden.
I have not written it off yet, but if Australia makes the final this year then they will be making the final every year. I personally like it so I might be a bit biased.
Will qualify because... Juries will do their duty and staging will be impressive a la Gravity securing the 105-115 pts needed for the qualification. Will attract some millennial crowds.
Will not qualify because...Technicolour is not what the average family would expect to watch on a Saturday evening. Juries will choose something safer.
Realistic expectations for the Semi: 10th-14th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order?: That's a tough one. Iceland 14' and Poland 14' tick the box in terms of unconventional entries and both qualified.
Interesting Facts about the Running Order: Poland SF2- 14' ( J:12 - PV:3), Belgium SF1 - 17' (J:13 - PV:3), Romania SF2 - 17' (J:15 - PV:3), Denmark SF2 - 18' (J:12 - PV:1) all ranked in podium with Televoting even though they were out of Top-10 with Juries...
What happens next...: If qualification happens, sky is the limit for Montaigne. I would not rule out even a Top-10 finish. Running order will be the key. It is another performance that has the potential to bring life to stage.
A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 60-65% NQ to the semi, if in Final 16th-22nd
Some More Data: 2017 and 2018 have some of the most impressive discrepancies between Juries and PV. For every PV point that Australia received there are 27.3 Jury points!!! The only time Australia got more PV points was in 2019 and even then they ranked higher with Juries.
No comments:
Post a Comment