Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 15. Latvia

 

15. Latvia

Qualifying Record: 5/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 9/12 

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 2 NQ 

Latvia holds an impressive SF record. When it fails to qualify, it fails spectacularly. Out of the 12 double SFs, has managed to finish last 4 times and 3 times in Bottom-3...

Samanta Tina will try to do her best and rise Latvia on the scoreboard... She as a tough mission, her chances are slim, but she still has a few tricks up her sleeves.

The running order might be tricky, but the the second half of the SF apart from the 3 songs that stand out (Switzerland, Bulgaria, Finland) has one or two spots that could land anywhere between Denmark, Latvia, Serbia, Portugal and Albania. 

With a perfect staging that could be the 2021 Hvala Ne. We will find out in a few weeks. If Ukraine and Russia both qualify from the first Semi, it will be a good sign for the luck of this one.

A price over 3.50-3.75 to qualify has some value.

Will qualify because...There could be a hidden gem in the song that waits for the live performance to appear in the surface. 

There are a few allies that could provide the points needed.

Will not qualify because... the staging will be a mess, reminding us of their bad effort back in 2017. 

It is slightly left field for a family show.

Realistic expectations for the Semi: 10th-17th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Portugal 19' (NQ), Finland 18' (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: Good running order for a televote magnet, it maximizes Latvia's chances. Both constituencies have 2 wins, but there is only one win in Total.

What happens next...: Latvia's chances are slim, but at least until the end of first rehearsal there are there. 

If Samanta manages to qualify, a Top-15 result would be the best-case scenario. The most probable outcome would be somewhere near Bottom-5.

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: NQ (60-70% probability), 18th -23rd if it qualifies.