Qualifying Record: 4/13 (5/13 if 50/50 is applied in 2014)
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 1/4 (2/4 see above)
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12
Current Country Streak: 1 NQ
Current Running Order Streak: 1 NQ
Portugal, the land of Salvador Sobral, is back with a song that is borrowing elements from Amar Pelos Dois and tries to recreate that magic.
Love Is On My Side has these noir elements and that jazz vibe. The first ever entry in English will rely on Juries to qualify, but it has an uphill to climb. Bad running order, performing before the two favourites of the SF (Switzerland, Bulgaria) and a Top-3 candidate (Finland), Portugal needs a Top-3/4 performance with Juries to get away and I struggle to see how this could happen.
Personally, I find Portugal hopeless.
Will qualify because...Bulgaria and Switzerland will flop with their staging and vocal performance, leaving Portugal being the last decent slow tempo entry.
Will not qualify because... Running order is a heavy burden.
Will struggle to find any televoting points apart from the Portuguese diaspora in France, Switzerland, and UK.
Realistic expectations for the Semi: 12th - 15th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Croatia 18' (NQ), San Marino 14' (Q but would be NQ with the 50/50)
Interesting Facts about the Running Order: That particular slot would be ideal for Bulgaria, Switzerland even Finland but it does not help Portugal. It is though one of the two places with 2 wins.
What happens next...: I'm confident that Portugal will not join the party on Saturday.
In case that magic happens and they qualify, a result like 2018 is the most probable scenario. Diaspora will always guarantee 25-40 points, depending on the threshold for the year that might be enough to avoid Bottom-3 in best case scenario.
A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: NQ with a 80-90% probability.
Some More Data: The definition of a roller-coaster ride! From first to last in one stop!
The number of points that Portugal scored in 2017 equals to the number of points that they have gathered from 1984 to 2018!!! (With the then scoring system)
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