Qualifying Record: 10/11
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 4/5
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 5/12
Current Country Streak: 1 Q
Current Running Order Streak: 2 NQ
Russia has taken a different route the last two years, away from Kirkorov's arms and the result is very interesting and exciting. Will that lead to a better result is to be seen. Manizha is a fresh breath for the contest, bringing on the table many difficult conversations ( women's emancipation, life of immigrants, racism) and offers an explosive mix.
Though 'Russian Woman' has a mountain to climb. This is by far the most challenging slot that Russia had for a while and losing Belarus has taken away 20-24 pts from the bag.
On the positive side Belgium 15', Albania 18' sailed to the final and Serbia 18' managed to qualify with one of its weakest entries ever.
The key will be to attract some western votes and that particular song has that potential.
Will qualify because... the song has the quality to attract Televote points and and some low jury points here and there. Who wants Krkorov to come back for Russia?
Will not qualify because... western juries and public will find it too leftfield. The only secured points come from Azerbaijan (16-24), Ukraine's Televote (8-12), Lithuania (6-14). Any other year Russia would start with 80-100 secured points.
Realistic expectations for the Semi: 7th - 12th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order?: Belgium 15', Serbia 18'
Interesting Facts about the Running Order: No song has managed to finish higher than 5th ( Norway SF2- 14'), but there are two second and a third place in Jury split results.
What happens next...: If Russia manages to qualify, things are getting easier for them in terms of allies. Let's not forget that in 2019 finished 6th in the SF and managed to finish 3rd in the Final.
I personally think that Russia could be on of the dark horses of the contest. It all depends of the staging and momentum that the song can build during rehearsals and after the Semi.
A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 5th - 10th
Some More Data: Russia has some amazing results on the contest flirting with the win but always coming short with the juries. The main reason behind it is politics and it will be very interesting to see how west media, juries and public will react to a Tajik girl singing about the soul of the Russian woman.
I'm also very curious how the eastern juries will react to that. The last time that Russia was left out of the Top-10 was back in 2011...
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