Qualifying Record: 6/13
Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/4
Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12
Current Country Streak: 2 NQ
Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ
Tick - Tock, has the time finally come? The last time that Croatia made it to the Top-10 was back in 2001! And this is a year that they have a chance to make it. A very powerful entry that has lots of potential on staging to spread its energy and make it to the final.
If Croatia was performing on SF2 that would be a certain qualifier. This Semi though is a tough one and there is a group of five countries fighting for three tickets (Russia, Australia, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine). Quality wise, Croatia deserves to qualify and that will definitely be the case if the second half give 6 tickets.
Running order is like Chernobyl series' famous line ' Not great, not terrible'.
Will qualify because... it better than at least six other songs. Has televoting potential and can get some decent 2-5pts from Juries to secure the 105-110 points needed for qualification.
Will not qualify because... remember SF1-2013! Four former Yugoslav republics in the same semi and managed to finish 11th, 12th, 13th and 16th. Once they were brothers but lately not so much when it comes to Eurovision voting.
There are three or four memorable entries coming after Croatia and there is the fear that it will be forgotten.
10th slot has 4/5 NQ in the last five contests...
Guess who was performing 10th back in SF2-2019 and did not qualify? Yep, Croatia.
Realistic expectations for the Semi: 6th -11th
Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Bulgaria 18', Greece 17' both qualified
Interesting Facts about the Running Order: Producers lately use that particular running order to stuck one of the weakest entries of the second half and it is quite mind boggling why they have chosen Croatia, given Croatia's recent track record as well. Televoting has only 5/12 Top-10. Juries have saved a country twice ( Hungary 15', Czechia 16').
What happens next...: The tough part for Croatia is to qualify to the Final. If that happens, with a bit of luck and some friendly points, Top-10/15 is within reach. It has an appealing package both for Juries and Televoters. Definitely one to watch at the rehearsals.
I have it on my personal Top-10.
A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: 10th-16th
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