Eurovision 2025 Early Thoughts - Croatia

 

Poison Cake - Marko Bosnjak

Croatia '25 is one of the biggest downgrades in the modern Eurovision history going from finishing 2nd to the Final straight to Bottom-3 if not last in the Semi-Final.

'Poison Cake' won Dora '25 in a very unconventional way, winning Juries!!! and finishing 4th in the Public vote, which is never good news for an entry in a Eurovision Semi-Final.

The fact that they opted for a Bambie Thug rip off when they had Baby Lasagna's blueprint still puzzles me!

Marko was shaky at times in Dora as well and I struggle to find something positive to say about this entry.

They might get some points from Slovenia but I doubt there will be someone else to take a bite from their 'Poison Song'...

I hope this year's result to awaken their broadcaster and makensome changes in their jurors selection process...

What do I see in my crystal ball?

Croatia closing their Public vote magnet trilogy, missing qualification and opening a new circle in their Eurovision journey. Will be impressed if they can escape Bottom-3.

Televoting Potential: 6/10

Jury Potential: 1/10

Staging Potential: 5/10

Momentum: 2/10

My Opinion: 3/10

Total: 17/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

None

Best case scenario:

23rd

Worst case scenario:

Last in Semi - Final

Pre-Contest estimated points:

SF: 10-30

F: J: 10-25 - PV: 25-30 - Tot: 35-55

Share your thoughts in the comments area. Is Croatia the weakest entry in the Eurovision '25 line-up?

You can hear my thoughts about Croatia in the 5th episode of the Eurovision Analysis podcast 'Talk About Things'  co-hosted with the Eurovision experts @mat_rickard and  @Panos_Zannettos at

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Eurovision 2023: The First Impression: Croatia

 

First Thoughts:

Croatia is going all in this year on a make-or-break situation, and I must admit that I feel for them.

With just 2 qualifications in the last 10 contests with the most recent one back in 2017 it was time for Croatia to try something different.

This is the first country so far that is trying to take advantage of the new rules that apply in Semi-Finals and will try to make it using a mid '00s recipe.

Mama SC is not a joke entry; it has a political background however I do expect most of the viewers to perceive it as a bad joke.

This entry will test the waters for similar songs in the future and will give some answers regarding this type of entries. Do they belong in the past or now that the jurors are not voting there is some room to go wild.

The thing is that a song just needs to find an audience and there is no negative voting in Eurovision. 

I do think that Croatia stands a chance to qualify but if they fail to make it, they will fail big finishing last.

If the later happens it is safe to assume that this will be the last Croatian entry in Eurovision for some time.

It reminds me of...

This is tricky...Germany '98, Austria '03,

Televoting Potential: 7.5/10

Jury Potential: 2/10

Staging Potential: 7/10

Momentum: 1/10

My Opinion: 5/10

Total: 22,5/50

What the fair winning chance % would be?

0.001% - 0.009%

Best case scenario:

Qualify to the Final

Worst case scenario:

Finish last in Semi - Final

To Qualify or Not to Qualify? That's the question...

60% not to qualify

What do I see in my crystal ball?

If EBU finally decides to redeem themselves for all those bad draws that gave Croatia all these years and give them a favorable slot, with a momentum and the wow factor, Croatia can make it to the Final which is their goal. 

Eurovision 2022 - Semi-Final 1 - 11. Croatia...is a Guilty Pleasure

Qualifying Record: 6/14

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/5

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 6/14

Current Country Streak: 3 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 Q

Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 1 - 10. Croatia

 

10. Croatia

Qualifying Record: 6/13

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 2/4

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 7/12

Current Country Streak: 2 NQ

Current Running Order Streak: 3 NQ