Eurovision 2021 - Semi Final 2 - 11. Albania

 

11. Albania

Qualifying Record: 8/15

Qualifying Record 50/50 era: 3/6

Running Order Record 50/50 era: 4/12

Current Country Streak: 2 Q

Current Running Order Streak: 1 Q

Even though Albania has a positive record of qualifications, most of them were marginal. They like the rush and therefore get ready for another thriller.

Anxhela Peristeri hopes she will have some good Karma and will bring Albania to the third consecutive Final. The song had the classic Albanian revamp and has many folk elements that will attract some Balkan votes. 

Quality wise Albania is not on the top but on the other hand the SF is so open that they might just scrape through.

My personal feeling is that this will be borderline, currently leaning towards non qualification.

Will qualify because... allies, Albanian diaspora and random Televoting points will be more than enough.

Will not qualify because...Bad running order, a mix of mediocre songs before and after and Albania might be forgotten by the time viewers will start voting.

Realistic expectations for the Semi: 9th - 13th

Similar Entries of the Past in the same Running Order? Georgia 19' (NQ), Poland 17' (Q)

Interesting Facts about the Running Order: Only 4 qualifications, none higher than 8th.

The best result for Juries so far 4th and 6th for Televoting. 

For the last 4 SF only one or no song is qualified from 10-12 slots.

What happens next...: A similar result to 2019 will be within reach, slightly worse if Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova are all in the final. 

It will secure enough points to avoid Bottom-5 or at least Bottom-3.

A drug dealer is pointing at you with a gun and threatens to kill you if you don't predict the Final Ranking: NQ 50-60%, if in Final 18th-22nd

Some More Data: Albania has had all kinds of everything so far. A televote magnet, a jury magnet and a completely balanced song. I believe that it will do better with televoting this year.