Just before posting my SF Power Rankings and my tips about the SFs, I thought that is nice to have a reference post about the numbers that matter both for the Semis and the Final.
This will be a long post but is very useful to keep in mind before placing your bets or when you are trying to choose your qualifiers or your winners.
Take some popcorn and enjoy the read!
The stats and data include the 2014 -2019 era with the 50/50 system applied to 2014 and 2015.
Semi Final Entries Saved by Juries and Televoting
So far, we have had 208 entries participating in the SFs. There were 35 times that a song was saved by the Js or TV, an average of 2.92 entries per SF.
The Js managed to save 14 entries (1.16 per SF). There are 2 countries that were saved twice: Yes, you guessed right, Malta and Denmark!
The most impressive of these rescues are the following:
2017 - Denmark finishing J:5th - TV: 16th, J pts: 96 - TV pts: 5, Rank: 10th
2016 - Israel finishing J: 4th - TV: 16th, J pts: 127 - TV pts: 20, Rank: 7th
2017 - Australia finishing J: 2nd - TV: 15th, J pts 139 - TV pts: 21, Rank: 6th
The Average Ranking for these 14 entries is J: 4.8 - TV: 12.6
11/14 entries were performing on the first half. The R.O. with the most saves is 8th with 4!
3rd and 10th have 2 saves each.
Having 14 entries saved by Juries means that we also have 14 entries that were Top-10 with TV and were 'killed' by the Jurors.
The Average Ranking is J: 13.6 - TV: 8.9
2 countries were punished twice: Yes, you got that right again, Poland and Finland
6 were performing on the 1st half and 8 on the 2nd half.
The impact here is less important with 7/14 being ranked 10th with TV, meaning that they were marginal already.
The biggest discrepancies are:
2017 - Estonia J: 17th - TV: 6th, J pts: 16 - TV pts: 69, Rank: 14th
2019 - Lithuania J: 17th- TV: 8th, J pts: 16 - TV pts:77, Rank: 11th
2016 - Bosnia J: 14th - TV: 8th, J pts: 26 - TV pts: 78, Rank: 11th
Televoting has managed to save 21 entries (1.75 per SF), 10 performing on the 1st half and 11 on the 2nd.
The Average Ranking for these entries is J: 12.7 - TV: 5.2.
The R.O with the most saves is 5th with 4 and then there are 5 slots with 2 (2nd, 11th, 13th, 15th, 17th)
The champion of this category is of course Poland with 4 saves (14',15', 16', 17') and Serbia has 2.
There is a statistical fact that really stands out in this category: The 2 last Televoting Winners in SF2 (18', 19') have both finished out of Top-10 with Juries...
2018 - Denmark J: 12th - TV: 1st, J pts: 40 - TV pts: 164, Rank: 5th
2019 - Norway J: 11th - TV: 1st, J pts: 40 - TV pts: 170, Rank: 7th
There is also a number of entries that finished at the podium with Televoters and outside Top-10 with the Jurors:
2016 - Austria J: 11th - TV: 2nd, J pts: 37 - TV pts: 133, Rank: 7th
2014 - Poland J: 12th - TV: 3rd, J pts: 34 - TV pts: 116, Rank: 6th
2017 - Belgium J: 13th - TV:3rd, J pts: 40 - TV pts: 125, Rank: 4th
2017 - Romania J: 15th - TV: 3rd, J pts: 26 - TV pts: 148, Rank 6th
And now the 21 entries that were punished by the viewers even though finished in Top-10 with Js.
Only 2 countries were punished twice: Correct! Malta is the one (2 times saved by Juries, 2 times punished by televoting) and Romania.
The Average Ranking is J: 8.3 - TV: 14.8
12 of them were performing in the 1st half and 9 in the 2nd.
The R.O with most entries is 11th with 4, followed by 2nd and 4th with 3 times.
Apart from 2 entries all the rest finished 7th-10th, meaning that the public almost always recognize the quality songs.
2018 - Malta J: 5th - TV: 18th*, J pts: 93 - TV pts: 8, Rank: 13th
2018 - Latvia J: 6th - TV: 15th, J pts: 92 - TV pts: 14, Rank: 12th
So far, we had 12 SFs with the 50/50 format and there hasn't been a SF without at least 2 saves. The maximum is 4
14.1 J: 1 - TV: 2
14.2 J: 1 - TV: 1
15.1 J: 1 - TV: 2
15.2 J: 1 - TV: 2
16.1 J: 1 - TV: 1
16.2 J: 2 - TV: 1
17.1 J: 1 - TV: 2
17.2 J: 2 - TV: 2
18.1 J: 1 - TV: 2
18.2 J: 1 - TV: 3
19.1 J: 1 - TV: 1
19.2 J: 1 - TV: 2
Biggest Discrepancies in Running Order between Js and Televoting
There are a few Running Order Slots where the discrepancy in Average Placing and Qualifications are significant and can influence the final result.
Juries' Territory:
R.O 3rd - J: 9.7 - 6/12 Qs / TV: 12.9 - 3/12 Qs / Total: 11.5 - 5/12 Qs
R.O. 8th - J: 8.4 - 7/12 Qs / TV: 10.8 - 5/12 Qs / Total: 9.5 - 7/12 Qs
R.O. 6th - J: 7.3 - 9/12 Qs / TV: 8.7 - 8/12 Qs / Total: 8 - 8/12 Qs
Televoting's Territory:
R.O 17th - J: 12.7 - 3/9 Qs / TV: 9 - 6/9 Qs / Total: 10.8 - 4/9 Qs
R.O. 5th - J: 10.4 - 5/12 Qs / TV: 6.9 - 10/12 Qs / Total: 8.3 - 8/12 Qs
R.O. 13th - J:10.8 - 5/12 Qs / TV: 8.1 - 8/12 Qs / Total: 9.9 - 7/12 Qs
SF Qualification margins and Top-3 scores
Did you know that 6/12 qualifications were clinched with a 4 points difference or less? We actually have 2 SFs that have a single point margin between the 10th and 11th
15.2 Montenegro 105 pts - Azerbaijan 104 pts * ( when the 50/50 applied)
19.2 Denmark 94 pts - Lithuania 93 pts
and there are 2 SFs that were decided by a 2 points difference
14.1 Portugal 89 pts - Albania 87 pts * (when the 50/50 applied)
19.1 Belarus 122 pts - Poland 120 pts ** ( Belarus got away because EBU hadn't realised yet that Jurors were voting with the opposite order...)
The margins are completely different when we are checking the the scores of the Winners and the 2nd place. The average points difference is 64.9 pts. The closest SF was the second back in 2018 where the difference between Norway and Sweden was only 12 points, though the Average for the last 4 SFs is just 23.3 pts so there is a pattern there.
Final Average Points and Margins
The first part of this section was posted in a post last year but is always useful to have a look at these numbers and will add some more observations.
So far, we have the following combinations for the winners
2014: Austria: J: 1 - TV: 1
2015: Sweden: J: 1 - TV: 3
2016: Ukraine: J: 2 - TV: 2
2017: Portugal: J: 1 - TV: 1
2018: Israel: J: 3 - TV: 1
2019: Netherlands: J: 3 - TV: 2
2015: Sweden: J: 1 - TV: 3
2016: Ukraine: J: 2 - TV: 2
2017: Portugal: J: 1 - TV: 1
2018: Israel: J: 3 - TV: 1
2019: Netherlands: J: 3 - TV: 2
Out of the 6 winners we do have 2 clear favorites that won both the Juries and Televoting, 2 that won one of the two and were third on the other half and 2 winners that haven't topped either of the two. Netherlands won last year even though it finished third with Juries and second with Televoting and it is more impressive that Italy who finished second was fourth with the Juries and third with the Televoting.
The average Jury rankings for the winners is 1.83 and the Televoting 1.67.
The average points for the winner are 581.7 or 60.85% of the maximum available points that equals to 7.3 pts per jury or televoting.
The best scoring performance was from Portugal 2017 with 758pts, 77.03% of the maximum points or 9.24 pts.
The lowest score for a winner is Netherlands' 2019 with 498pts, just 51.88% of the available points to grab, an average of 6.23 pts.
The average difference between the winner and the second place is 83.2 points. The biggest lead was in 2017 with 143 points of margin between Portugal and Bulgaria and the smallest mark the 23 points that secured the win for Ukraine in 2016 with Australia coming really close.
What's more important? Winning the Juries or the Televoting?
This is the most interesting part of the analysis. I observed the Top-5s in the final rankings and for Juries and Televoting separately and these are my findings:
Average rankings with Juries and Televoting from Winner to 5th
Winner: J: 1.83 - TV: 1.67
2nd: J: 3 - TV: 2.5
3rd: J: 5.2 - TV: 4.17
4th: J: 6.12 - TV: 4.67
5th: J: 6.5 - TV: 7
There is a pattern there. Televoting tends to score slightly better than the Juries and that is because Televoting winners tend to have wider margins and score more consistently than the Jury winners! Have a look to the average points for each place for Juries and Televoting individually.
Winner: J: 299.5 pts / 62.66% of maximum available points
TV: 337.7 pts/ 70.65% of maximum available points
TV: 337.7 pts/ 70.65% of maximum available points
2nd: J: 238.8 pts / 49.96% of maximum available points
TV: 280 pts / 58.58% of maximum available points
3rd: J: 208.1 pts / 43.54% of maximum available points
TV: 243.5 pts / 50.94% of maximum available points
4th: J: 182.1 pts / 38.09% of maximum available points
TV: 215.5 pts / 45.08% of maximum available points
5th: J: 160.1 pts / 33.49% of maximum available points
TV: 183 pts / 38.28% of maximum available points
Televoting secures a 23-38 pts handicap on every place. We must go to the 7th place to see Juries scoring better than Televoting (134.6 vs 125.8).
Finishing third in Televoting is better than finishing second with Juries and gives a clear advantage. The reason for that is the longer tail with the Juries. They tend to distribute their points to more countries. From 7th to 25th Jury points have a higher average than Televoting. Be it professionalism or the exchange of points between allies the jurors tend to vote more countries.
The next thing I did was to check the average rankings on the other half and the final scoreboard for the Top-5s in Juries and Televoting (eg: Jury winner: what's its average ranking in televoting and the average ranking in the combined scoreboard)
Juries
Winner: TV: 5.67 - Final Ranking: 2.5 - Deviation +4.67 / +1.5
2nd: TV: 7.83 - Final Ranking: 4 - Deviation +5.83 / +2
3rd: TV: 4 - Final Ranking: 2.83- Deviation +1 / -0.17
4th: TV: 11.8 - Final Ranking: 6.17 - Deviation +7.8 / +2.17
5th: TV: 6.33 - Final Ranking: 5.33 - Deviation +1.33 / +0.33
You can observe that apart from the third place that secures a better Ranking in Totals, and that's because the last 2 winners (Israel, Netherlands) finished there. Add Russia 16' that won the televoting and you have the big picture.
Sweden finishing second (3 times) skews the numbers for that place, the same with the fourth place where we had Malta (16') and Australia (17') when they finished way lower with Televoting.
Televoting
Winner: J: 5.67 - Final Ranking: 2.5 - Deviation +4.67 / +1.5
2nd: J: 3 - Final Ranking: 1.67 - Deviation +1 / -0.33
3rd: J: 9.5 - Final Ranking: 3.67 - Deviation +6.5 / +0.67
4th: J: 7.33 - Final Ranking: 3.83 - Deviation +3.33 / -0.17
5th: J: 13.83 - Final Ranking: 6.67 - Deviation +8.83 / +1.67
The winners of the individual boards have secured 3 wins but only have the second best average.
The best place to be is finishing 2nd in televoting that has an average ranking of 1.67. That spot has given 2 winners and 4 second place finishings.
The other important finding is that Televoting tends to be closer to the final rankings with smaller deviations and can survive and bounce back even when the Juries try to punish it.
Televoting has punished a Top-5 Jury 6 times, ranking it below Top-10 and forced 2 of them to finish out of Top-10.
There were 8 cases where a Televoting Top-5 has scored worse than a Top-10 with Juries but none of these discrepancies forced a finishing outside the Top-10.
If you have made it to this point without taking an aspirin congratulations! You will probably need one now...
For those who are to estimate where a country should finish in order to win or finish in the Top-3/4/5/10/15
here are the Average Points in Total, with Js and Televoting for every single place*
1. Total: 581.7 - J: 299.5 - TV: 337.7
2. Total: 498.5 - J: 238.8 - TV: 280
3. Total: 415.3 - J: 208.1 - TV: 243.5
4. Total: 345.5 - J: 182.1 - TV: 215.5
5. Total: 306.5 - J: 160.1 - TV: 183
6. Total: 292.3 - J: 140.8 - TV: 155.5
7. Total: 251 - J: 134.6 - TV: 125.8
8. Total: 224.3 - J: 113.8 - TV: 112.1
9. Total: 203.8 - J: 103.5 - TV: 100.1
10. Total: 174.3 - J: 90.3 - TV: 88.6
11. Total: 147.3 - J: 85 - TV: 68.6
12. Total: 137.8 - J: 77.3 - TV: 62.8
13. Total: 131.8 - J: 71 - TV: 55.6
14. Total: 125.3 - J: 60.7 - TV: 52.3
15. Total: 118 - J: 55.9 - TV: 50.3
16. Total: 110.3 - J: 51.1 - TV: 48.5
17. Total: 100.1 - J: 47.4 - TV: 44.5
18. Total: 96.2 - J: 43.7 - TV: 39
19. Total: 88.4 - J: 39.7 - TV: 31.7
20. Total: 83.2 - J: 36.2 - TV: 27.9
21. Total: 77 - J: 32.7 - TV: 22.9
22. Total: 63.2 - J: 25.7 - TV: 20.1
23. Total: 52.9 - J: 21.5 - TV: 16.1
24. Total: 42.4 - J: 18 - TV: 13.8
25. Total: 30.4 - J: 10 - TV: 11.3
26. Total: 16.7 - J: 3.7 - TV: 5.1
* Totals are not equal to the two constituencies of the same because these are the individual averages.
eg: The average points for the 26th place is 16.7, but the 26th place in Juries has an average of 3.7 points and the 26th place with Televoting has an average of 5.1 points.
Keep the above chart in mind when calculating the points or the ranking of your projected winner
ie: You have 2 songs as possible winners
Song 1 is estimated to win the Juries and finish 4th with Televoting.
Song 2 is estimated to win Televoting and finish 4th with Juries.
The average score for Song 1 would be 515 points
The average score for Song 2 would be 519.8 points
Of course, we are talking about averages that are not aways accurate, but keep in mind that Televoting has the upper hand.
I hope that you find all these info useful when you are trying to pick your favourites.
Here you can also find all the useful stats about the running order of the SFs.
And just a reminder that you can also find my comments https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets
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