There are eight certain qualifiers (1.01-1.32), an almost certain (1.65), three nots (2.10-2.22) and four no hopers.
In the past 12 SFs the market always predicted correct 7-9 qualifiers (7x2, 8x3, 9x7).
Here is my final Power Ranking for the Semi. In parenthesis you will find the change from the pre rehearsal one.
1. Malta (-)
Juries: 1
Televoting: 1
Estimated Points: 300-360
The clear favourite. Had improved after every rehearsal. Is among the contenders for Saturday. Anything less than a landslide victory in the SF will be a surprise.
The win in SF @1.57-1.67 is fair but I don't find any value.
2. Lithuania (-)
Juries: 4
Televoting: 2
Estimated Points: 225-260
Nothing changed here either. Lithuania is a great show opener and could be in the Top-10 in the Final with a decent running order.
A Top-3 finish in the SF @ 2.84 hides some value.
3. Ukraine (+3)
Juries: 2
Televoting: 4
Estimated Points: 220-250
Was never in doubt that Ukraine would stage its song in the best possible way or that there would ever be a possibility to non-qualify. It's sailing to the final and is another candidate for a Top-10 finish.
Top-3 in the SF @ 1.68 is too short for my likings.
4. Cyprus (-1)
Juries: 7
Televoting: 3
Estimated Points: 190-215
Staging is great and this is sailing to the Final. I am still not convinced about Elena's vocal ability, and I reckon the Market has overreacted to this one. Is currently the fifth favourite to win. It has Top-10 potential, but I don't consider it a done deal yet.
Lay the Top-3 @ 1.37 (approx. 3.70) is a fair bet.
5. Russia (-)
Juries: 5
Televoting: 5
Estimated Points: 165-195
This is my dark horse (biased alert), and the staging is impressive. Just ten days ago Q was paying 1.37, the definition of a value bet.
It has potential do well. Had it been in the second half, Top-3 would be a certainty.
6. Belgium (+3)
Juries: 3
Televoting: 9
Estimated Points: 160-185
Quality is there and in a SF with all these bangers, Belgium looks like an oasis of calmness. Juries will love it and Hooverphonic have the brand name to guarantee some PV as well.
Finishing Top-3 in the SF @ 16 is a fun bet, considering how often a surprise song sneaks in the Top-3 of a SF.
7. Norway (-)
Juries: 8
Televoting: 6
Estimated Points: 130-160
Norway is still a mystery for me. I will be checking its metrics during the SF for any signs of flopping. Will people understand the concept? To be seen...
8. Sweden (-)
Juries: 6
Televoting: 9
Estimated Points: 130-160
There are still people that believe that Sweden might be a shocker non qualifier. I have also laid it @ 8.00 and yes there was some value there. Currently Sweden non qualification pays 4 times your money and any value is now lost.
It's not my cup of tea as a song but is definitely stronger than a bunch of other entries that follow.
9. Croatia (+1)
Juries: 9
Televoting: 7
Estimated Points: 120-150
Croatia looks like to be the last secured spot for the Final. Staging is great for Televoting and there are no reasons for the jurors to punish it. There is no value at its current Q price (1.28-1.35)
For those who don't like the song NQ is @ 3.50 and there could be some value there, but this is not me.
And now the headache starts. There is a group of three countries that will be very very close fighting for the last ticket. Wouldn't be surprised if any of the three makes it to the Final.
10. Romania (-6)
Juries: 13
Televoting: 10
Estimated Points: 75-95
I know that Romania will struggle with Juries. Yesterday they had to perform a second time because of technical difficulties. But...the song has an actual message and has appeal to the younger audience.
Apart from that, we had many cases in the past where shaky vocalists have qualified managing a good result with the Juries. I'm not tipping it because it will be very marginal.
11. Israel (-)
Juries: 11
Televoting: 12
Estimated Points: 75-95
Israel failed to reproduce the videoclip concept on stage and is currently walking on thin ice. Yesterday, before the dress rehearsal, the Q price was 1.70-1.75. This morning is @ 2.20-2.30.
12. Azerbaijan (-)
Juries: 12
Televoting: 11
Estimated Points: 75-95
Mata Hari is the weakest of all the marginal entries. She did perform better than Romania and Israel with the Juries, but the staging looks empty and the choreography uninspired. And let's face it! There is not much of a song there. It has an audience though and if Romania flops with Televoting, this is the one to qualify.
I have already tipped it as NQ @ 3.25 and currently is @ 2.37. There is still value there for a 50/50 entry.
13. Australia (+2)
Juries: 10
Televoting: 13
Estimated Points: 70-80
The mystery of the night. Can fans save this one? Montaigne is not in Rotterdam and the performance is live on tape. It looked better than someone would expect but is clear that she is not in stage. Will people give her some sympathy votes?
Juries will be there to help as they always do with Australia, but I think it won't be enough.
14. Slovenia (-)
Juries: 14
Televoting: 15
Estimated Points: 40-55
Running order, staging did not do any favours to Slovenia. Producers proved to be right placing this one second in the running order. She needed some backing singers to recreate the gospel feeling of the song.
In a better running order, I would be tempted to back her Q @5.00 but now it feels like throwing money in the air.
15. Ireland (-2)
Juries: 16
Televoting: 14
Estimated Points: 30-50
Another missed opportunity for Ireland. A shaky vocalist that fails to deliver live, plus an overly complicated staging. Lesley needs a map on stage to follow all the steps of the choreography.
Finishing last in the SF is currently @ 3.10. I personally got some @ 5.30.
16. North Macedonia (-)
Juries: 15
Televoting: 16
Estimated Points: 25-45
North Macedonia did their best and the staging is the best possible they could produce. Unfortunately, their entry is too weak. Anything better than the bottom-3 will be a success.
Let's talk about bets
I have mentioned in my previous posts that my book for this year is 1000 units (200 for each SF + 600 for the F). The returned units from the SFs can be used as well.
Last week I tipped Azerbaijan NQ @ 3.25 - 40 units
That means that I have 160 units left.
My main bet for tonight will be Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units
Belgium is a safe choice with the Juries, and I find it difficult to see them struggling much with Televoting. This is the price that currently has the most value and I'm happy to call it.
I will also top-up Azerbaijan's NQ @ 2.37 - 35 units, so the total will be
Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units
and I'm left with 25 units.
Unfortunately, my next tips are not available in all betting sites but there is some value there for those who have access.
Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (approx. 3.70) - 20 units
Cyprus is currently overpriced and Lithuania, Ukraine, Russia could steal its spot.
And finally, my fun bet Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units
So here are all my tips
Azerbaijan NQ @ 2.84 - 75 units
Belgium Q @ 1.91 - 100 units
Cyprus SF Top-3 Lay @ 1.38 (approx. 3.70) - 20 units
Belgium SF Top-3 @ 14.5 - 5 units
Good luck with all your bets tonight. I will be live on Twitter during the SF
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