What a week it has been so far! So many changes in the lead, entries going up and down. Like every year, the reality that we had just a week ago feels so distant right now.
We have seen all the SF songs performing twice, and tomorrow we will have the 2nd rehearsal for the Big-6. I will try to summarise what happened so far and where we are heading next week.
Winner's Market
Thursday has been one of the most exciting days, if not the most exciting, that we ever had in the rehearsal week.
France was leading the market in the morning, then Malta performed first and took the lead for a few hours. Italy had its first rehearsal and saw its price dropping from 12.00 to 4.40. It lasted there for an hour and then France regained the lead and its price dropped as low as 3.60.
That Top-3 has remained the same today as well but keep an eye tomorrow for the second rehearsal and mostly for the press conference afterwards, where each country will draw the half of its running order.
What to expect: If France gets second half and Italy first, then France will shorten, and Italy will drift more.
If the opposite happens, Italy might take the lead, or we might see both countries near the 4.00 region.
If both get the same half and that's the second one, I reckon that Top-3 stays the same, but Malta will drift.
If they are both performing at the first half, Malta will be the 'winner' of the day and will get closer to them, surpassing Italy.
Here are my thoughts for the market leaders based on what we know and have seen this week.
I keep an open mind about France but still believe that this is not the winner. It has a very intimate staging and it's all about Barbara's vocal abilities and expressions, but I still have two reservations:
a. It needs to crack Top-3 with Televoting, and I still struggle to find where these points will come from. Italy, Malta, Bulgaria, Iceland, Russia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Ukraine are up there as well. Beating five of that group seems very very difficult.
b. Europe needs to party this year and leave everything behind. Malta, Italy have a more attractive package and Bulgaria that is also dark has a stronger message, with the circle of life and time that goes by.
France is an entry made by numbers to remind Europe of the classic French chanson of the Edith Piaf era. Add to that an Amelie OST touch in the last minute and you have a hit. Will that work? Maybe, but I seriously doubt it.
Italy has less problems to solve. They are charismatic performers; they own the stage and they set the stage on fire literally!
They have a higher ceiling than France, being Top-2 in Televoting is the worst-case scenario
Juries is the main problem for them. If they stay within reach with the J's Top-5, it is theirs to lose. Euro Jury results is an exceptionally good sign for them.
Malta had its difficulties as well. The first rehearsal was a bit underwhelming without creating panic though. It drifted a bit and then remained stable.
The second rehearsal was way better, and punters showed their trust putting their money in this one. But then Italy and France happened and is back to the third place.
I can't say that I am impressed with the staging, which reminds me very much that of Switzerland back in 2019 with a pink touch a la Netta 2018. We can safely say that this is not SJB's year regarding originality.
The good news for Malta is that it will be in or near Top-3 both with the Juries and Televoting. Let's not forget that Duncan won finishing third with Js and second in Televoting.
In a scenario where France is out of Top-3 with TV and Italy out of Top-4 with Juries, Malta gets game.
Behind the Top-3 we had, until a few hours ago another group of 3 entries that were nearby. Iceland is the roller coaster of the year with punters going back and forth with them. Iceland has reached Top-3 trading as low as 7.6 and drifted as high as 14.00 and that game keeps going on.
In my opinion this one is the definition of a false favourite, could crack the Top-5 with Televoting and that's it. It has Australia 19' vibes all over it. Not a great song, not a great staging or a novelty gimmick. Just trying to create a hype about itself but the actual product is not top quality. You have been warned!
Bulgaria has been less volatile, trading to the teens the whole week, being 4th - 6th.
The staging is one of the best this season, it has the potential to create an impact but I'm a bit sceptical when checking its metrics. I know that it is still early, and things can change during and after the shows next week, but I would expect better numbers in terms of views. Will people connect with it, or will it be a hit and miss attempt? To be seen...
All these 5 were included among the favourites throughout the season and haven't lost touch with the Top.
There is one country though that as of today, in my opinion has lost its contender status and currently Top-4/5 is its ceiling and I'm talking about Switzerland.
Everything that could go wrong regarding the staging, did go wrong. We have come to the point to agree that Gjon's behind a piano would look better right now.
The avant guarde staging, the strange choreography that does not fit the song, the lack of actual dancers makes the whole experience awkward. The song is nice, but I fail to find a connection with the videoclip, that at least had a plot. The backdrop is also remarkably similar to Sweden's.
The market has decided that Switzerland is not among the contenders. 20s is a matter of time to happen.
They are here with a bang!!!
There is a group of countries that upped their game in Rotterdam and they aim high.
Cyprus might be our dark horse! Elena is gaining ground day by day and Top-10 looks like a certainty.
Top-3 in the SF is a lock!
Russia has the best staging in my opinion and has the power to secure a Top-10 finishing as well. I believe that this one will grow further after the SF. My dark horse for Top-5 finishing.
Ukraine is also bringing good vibes and energy on the stage. Great staging as well.
Greece has Stefania! She is full of charisma. Can't say I'm impressed with the optical trick that looks cheap in my opinion. Could be near Top-10 as well.
Croatia has also shown some potential and Serbia is sailing to the final.
I think there is something wrong here!
Sweden is in trouble! The staging has not impressed anyone, Russia coming before it and Australia after, make it look so blunt. Can Juries save them once more?
Moldova and Azerbaijan: the juries' fear forced them to a very conservative staging when everyone expected something more extravagant. They are both in danger...
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