Eurovision 2019: Semi Final 2 Pre - Rehearsal Power Rankings

Better late than never! Rehearsal season has started and with a small delay here are my power rankings for Semi final 2.

Ps: I haven't changed a bit on my comments, the only thing that has changed are the available odds that have more value for the countries that have already made their first rehearsal.



1. Netherlands

Televoting: 1 - Juries: 1 

Odds: Q 1.03 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 15.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 2.24 (exchange) - 2.20 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It is the big favorite to win the whole thing.
It is the big favorite to win the whole thing...
One more time, it is the favorite to win the whole thing!

Will not qualify because...
Martians invade planet earth and Eurovision is postponed...

Personal opinion: The one to beat and this is the only reason I'm waiting for the rehearsal! Netherlands must screw their staging big time to lose the win! And keep it a little bit low. Stay humble and take it step by step.

2. Russia

Televoting: 2 - Juries: 4 

Odds: Q 1.03 (exchange market), Q:1.02 -NQ: 12.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 4.50 (exchange) - 4.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It's Russia and non-qualifications happen once every 25 years.
Televoting and allies will do their job.

Will not qualify because...
Russia non qualification was the perfect storm of failed politics and pr. This is not the case this year.

Personal opinion: It's the song that everybody or almost everybody respects a bit too much. Can go anywhere between 2-8. Quality wise i wouldn't place it in Top-10 but we are talking about Russia so 5-8 is where it should finish, always talking about the final.

3. Malta

Televoting: 6 - Juries: 3 

Odds: Q 1.23 (exchange market), Q:1.22 -NQ: 4.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 23.00 (exchange) - 21.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Malta is always doing an excellent job with the juries and this year can attract televoters too.
It has lots of potential on stage.

Will not qualify because...
Malta might overdo it on staging and create a mess.
We haven't heard yet the live version.

Personal opinion: One of my dark horses. I have already placed a bet on its potential Top-10 finish on the final.

4. Sweden

Televoting: 7 - Juries: 2 

Odds: Q 1.02 (exchange market), Q:1.01 -NQ: 15.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 9.60 (exchange) - 7.50 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Swedish productions are always slick and can guarantee qualifications.
There are at least 8 worst songs.

Will not qualify because...
Juries decide to mess with Sweden and don't give Sweden a single vote.

Personal opinion: Sweden is always destined to be Top-10 in the final and usually Top-5 as well.

5. Azerbaijan

Televoting: 3 - Juries: 7 

Odds: Q 1.16 (exchange market), Q:1.11 -NQ: 6.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 27.00 (exchange) - 34.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It has the pimp slot of the 2nd semi and the last few years that was enough for the uplifting closing song to finish Top-3 in the Semi. (Belgium 2016, Israel 2017)
Does stand out.

Will not qualify because...
Chingiz will lose his voice and will not be able to sing a word. Even then will have some chances to qualify.

Personal opinion: Sailing to the final.

6. Switzerland

Televoting: 5 - Juries: 5 

Odds: Q 1.06 (exchange market), Q:1.03 -NQ: 11.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 7.60 (exchange) - 5.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It will probably be the radio hit of the year.
It's time for Switzerland to qualify and have a Top-10 result after 2005!

Will not qualify because...
Dancers and Hani collapse on stage after hours of rehearsals

Personal opinion: It will be a televoting magnet but still doubt about its jury appeal. Solid Top-10 though.

7. North Macedonia

Televoting: 9 - Juries: 6 

Odds: Q 1.41 (exchange market), Q:1.40 -NQ: 2.75 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 25.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
If not this year, then never!
The song is an inspirational anthem and Tamara has an excellent voice.
Jury friendly.

Will not qualify because...
Macedonia has the worst record on staging. They can destroy a masterpiece.

Personal opinion: They are set for their best performance in Eurovision ever. Top-15 @2.06 is a value bet.

8. Norway

Televoting: 4 - Juries: 11 

Odds: Q 1.44 (exchange market), Q:1.36 -NQ: 3.00 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 16.00 (exchange) - 26.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Denmark did the same last year.
Televoting magnet

Will not qualify because...
Remember Iceland 2016, Estonia 2017...
Juries might find it Kitch or outdated.

Personal opinion: Not touching it for the moment but the main candidate for a shocker non qualifier.

9. Armenia

Televoting: 8 - Juries: 8 

Odds: Q 1.62 (exchange market), Q:1.44 -NQ: 2.62 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 50.00 (exchange) - 34.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Armenia has a good record and some allies on this semi.
The song is contemporary.

Will not qualify because...
Running order is problem especially with all those favorites coming later.
Might look too aggressive.

Personal opinion: Armenia will be marginal either way.

10. Denmark

Televoting: 10 - Juries: 9 

Odds: Q 1.71 (exchange market), Q:1.57 -NQ: 2.25 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 11.50 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Love is forever.
A feel-good song with a touch of nostalgia.

Will not qualify because...
Leonora is not smiling when singing and this is a problem.

Personal opinion: Somehow i believe it will qualify.

11. Albania

Televoting: 11 - Juries: 12

Odds: Q 2.30 (exchange market), Q:2.10 -NQ: 1.66 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 50.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
It is a very sentimental song with some allies on the semi.

Will not qualify because...
Staging won't be perfect and might be looking very flat

Personal opinion: Not written off but must be perfect on stage to make it and Albania does not have a good staging record.

12. Austria

Televoting: 14 - Juries: 10 

Odds: Q 5.50 (exchange market), Q:3.50 -NQ: 1.28 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Even though it goes under the radar, there is some quality hidden in the song.

Will not qualify because...
Juries and televoters will find something better to vote for.
Seems like it's too long

Personal opinion: Definitely a fun bet for qualification just to be ok with my conscience and gut in case it qualifies.

13. Lithuania

Televoting: 12 - Juries: 15

Odds: Q 3.25 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 251.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
If he can run with lions, why not qualify as well?
Ally friendly semi-final.

Will not qualify because...
Back in the Roman empire times, lions were eating the Christian martyrs in the arena.
Lacks something that will lift the song.

Personal opinion: Not 100% written off but almost there.

14. Romania

Televoting: 13 - Juries: 14 

Odds: Q 2.52 (exchange market), Q:2.37 -NQ: 1.53 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 201 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Romania has a particularly good record on staging and making the most of its songs
Enough allies on the semi.

Will not qualify because...
The song struggled on its own national final.
Not a typical Balkan song.

Personal opinion: Romania should always be respected and can find the points to qualify but it is an uphill for them.

15. Latvia

Televoting: 16 - Juries: 13 

Odds: Q 7.40 (exchange market), Q:6.00 -NQ: 1.11 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 251.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
We might not understand it consciously, but the song is hypnotizing the audience and sends subconscious messages to vote for it.

Will not qualify because...
It seems like it's on a loop forever.
Not even juries will be able to save it!

Personal opinion: Does not stand a chance.

16. Moldova

Televoting: 15 - Juries: 16 

Odds: Q 3.65 (exchange market), Q:2.75 -NQ: 1.40 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 190.00 (exchange) - 67.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
Televoters will use the song as an anthem against Brexit. A last call for UK to remain in EU!

Will not qualify because...
This is so cliche that is almost a parody. And videoclip enforces that point.


Personal opinion: Moldova Won't Stay for the final this year.

17. Ireland

Televoting: 17 - Juries: 18 

Odds: Q 8.20 (exchange market), Q:6.50 -NQ: 1.10 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 75.00 (exchange) - 101.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
7 other songs will be worse on stage and with vocal difficulties.

Will not qualify because...
You can't qualify to the final with an amateurish song that doesn't even sound original

Personal opinion: Nothing to see here! Move on.

18. Croatia

 Televoting: 18 - Juries: 17 

Odds: Q 6.40 (exchange market), Q:5.00 -NQ: 1.14 (betting site)
Semi Winner: 140.00 (exchange) - 201.00 (betting site)

Will qualify because...
The angels up there will vote to show their solidarity to Roko.

Will not qualify because...
Nothing in its favour. Croatia has lost its mojo the last decade.

Personal opinion: Avoiding bottom -3 will be a success!

Will try to post tomorrow my resume of the first rehearsals and my first tips for this year. The posts will be coming on a more regular basis from now on. Let me know your thoughts and opinions.

For more comments and regular communication my twitter account is https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets

Stay tuned!