Eurovision 2019: 1st Semi Final - Tips / Eurovision Challenge

Finally it's time!!! The day that we have been waiting for is finally here! The 1st Semi is by far the weakest of the year but that does not mean that is an easy one to predict. Things changed during the rehearsals, and we do have new dynamics but there are a few points that I would like to mention before moving to the breakdown of the qualifiers and non-qualifiers.

The true and most valuable flow of information and data will start running the time we see the songs live on stage. Currently, there is only a handful of people that has seen and can evaluate the dynamics of each song. The market has 7 songs as certain qualifiers (1.03-1.27), 2 almost certain qualifiers (1.45-1.48) and a marginal qualifier (Estonia 1.82). A useful reminder is that the market has failed to find all 10 qualifiers in the last 10 semis. The usual number is 9 and some 8s but last year was the only time with 3 misses on the 1st Semi and the 2nd Semi had 2 as well. This was the result of the discrepancies between Televoting, and Juries and it will be interesting to see if we do have the same trend.

For those of you that need some numbers to help you with your bets this is a list of previous posts that might be handy when placing your bets.

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovision-2019-know-your-numbers.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovisionbetsandpieces-one-eurovision.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/04/eurovisionbetsandpieces-one-eurovision_23.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/05/eurovision-2019-semi-final-1-pre.html

https://eurovisionbetsandpieces.blogspot.com/2019/05/eurovision-2019-first-blood.html

And now let's see where we stand for Semi final 1 in a Power Ranking form

1. Greece (-)

Televoting: 1 
Juries: 1

Sailing to the final. The question is if it will attract enough momentum to go after a Top-5 spot on the final.

2. Serbia (+2)

Televoting: 3 
Juries: 2

One of the songs that stepped up and deserves to qualify to the final. There things will be more difficult.

3. Australia (+7)

Televoting: 2 
Juries: 3

One of the songs that grew from rehearsal to rehearsal and is currently 5th favorite to win the whole thing. Let's not overreact. Running order will be decisive for a Top-5 finish.

4. Cyprus (-2)

Televoting: 4 
Juries: 6

It deserves to be lower and would be willing to bet for a shock non-qualification if in Semi 2, but Cyprus has enough allies to help.

5. Hungary (+4)

Televoting: 7 
Juries: 4

The good thing about having a balanced song and some experience in staging your song. Hungary is in!

6. Czechia (-1)

Televoting: 6
Juries: 5

The advantage of having a catchy song that comes after 2-3 bland ones. Might be slightly lower but will definitely qualify.

7. Iceland (-4)

Televoting: 5 
Juries: 7

Even my numbers say that it will sail to the final, but if i had to choose a shocker non qualifier, this is it. This is an interesting case study of what's the limit on a song with ambition to win.

8. Slovenia (-1)

Televoting: 8
Juries: 9

After the first 6-7 songs i do believe that no one is safe. Slovenia makes the cut on my list but it will be marginal. For those who are willing to risk it, NQ is @ 2.75.

9. Belgium (-1)

Televoting: 9 
Juries: 8

Neither Belgium is safe, but I believe that will get enough jury support to save it.

10. Georgia (+7)

Televoting: 11 
Juries: 10

I know that this a bold prediction, but the song has all the drama, sentiments, and narrative that better songs have failed to create. Has some friends as well that can help it a bit.

11. Portugal (-5)

Televoting: 10
Juries: 13

From favorite to win the contest, fighting to qualify! These have been 3 long months for Portugal! It's not written off but I'm afraid to touch it even @ 2.64. Will wait to see it live and then act.

12. Poland (-1)

Televoting: 12
Juries: 12

We are still in the area where there are hopes but coming from #4 and with all the madness coming after, this will be forgotten.

13. Estonia (-1)

Televoting: 14
Juries: 11

The unluckiest of all the songs this year, being sandwiched between Iceland and Portugal and Greece coming after that as well. 1.82 has value for those who believe in it.

14. Belarus (+1)

Televoting: 15 
Juries: 14

We are now entering the dark area where no light exists. Belarus has some very very very slim chances but needs to nail a Top-5/6 televoting to make it. Is that possible? I think it's difficult.

15. San Marino (-1)

Televoting: 13
Juries: 17

You can now live all your hopes outside. Serhat is not even pretending to be singing. Extremely poor song that cannot be saved even from pimp slot.

16. Montenegro (-)

Televoting: 17
Juries: 15

Avoiding the last place is the only target. Might secure some points from Serbia and Slovenia to avoid it.

17. Finland (-4)

Televoting: 16
Juries: 16

Nothing can save Finland from a poor score.

And now the Tips for the Semi. As I have already mentioned to my previous post, my book is split in 100 units for each Semi and 300 units for the final. The units that are won on each semi can be used to the 2nd Semi and Final. So far, my book for the 1st Semi is:

Semi 1

Poland NQ: 20 units @ 2.00 

Semi 1 New total : 80 units

I still have 80 units to spend and i will split them like this

Serbia Top-3 at Semi: 20 units @ 4.40 (result will be known after the final)

Iceland NQ: 10 units @ 6.00

Estonia NQ: 25 units @ 2.25

Georgia Q: 25 units @ 3.15

Semi 1 new Total: 0 units

As you can see, i just need any 2/5 bets to get my my money back and need 3 or more to have a decent profit. The best-case scenario gives me 323 units back.


Eurovision Challenge!!!

Having so many friends and people that watch the contest but do not bet regularly, I decided to create a Game/ Challenge to keep them interested. I call it the Eurovision Challenge and is very simple. I have estimated that if  I place an original bet of 10 pounds/euros/dollars on the 1st Semi at a price around the 1.50-1.70 area and keep betting the winnings on the next semi and then final and the semi etc, in 5 years time and if all the bets are successful, that amount can go up to 10.000 pounds/euros/dollars!!! Are you ready for it?

If the bet is lost, will start again with the same amount on the next contest. So here we go

Semi Final 1 - 2019: Poland NQ 10 x 1.90 if i win the bet, 19 pounds/euros/dollars will be invested on the 2nd Semi and so on. If not I will bet 10 units in Semi 2 and continue from there.

Good luck to everybody with your bets! I will be posting every day until next Sunday. Let me know about your thoughts and qualifiers!