Eurovision 2019: Know your numbers

After breaking down the favorites of this year's contest, it is time to have a look at the voting patterns from the previous years. The patterns are for the years 2014-2018, where we have available the split results from Juries and Televoting.

Many bettors skip that part. I have to admit that this is the most difficult part to predict or analyse but there are some useful lessons to be learned and they are hidden in numbers.

There hasn't been a song that won either the Juries or the Televoting and failed to finish in the Top-3.

The ranking patterns for the 5 winners at the split voting era

1 - 1 x 2 times (Austria 2014, Portugal 2017)
2 - 2 x 1 time (Ukraine 2016)
3 - 1 x 2 times ( Sweden 2015 (3 Tv- 1 J), Israel 2018 ( 1 Tv - 3 J)

The tighter win was in 2016 with a 23 points difference and that was because Ukraine finished 2nd both in Televoting and Juries.

The worst performance in either Juries or Televoting that secured a Top-3 finishing was Austria last year, winning the Juries but managed to finish 13th in Televoting!

Impressive performance from Moldova back in 2017 as well securing a Top-3 result after having finished 3rd in Televoting and 8th with the Juries.

The worst performance in any of the two fields that secured a Top-5 was Italy 2018 that finished 17th with the Juries. No other country that finished outside the Top-10 made it there, fact that makes Austria 2018 result look even more impressive!

Worst performances that made it to the Top 10. Poland is the champion of the category and this is the reason behind the 'urban legend?' of the Polish diaspora. In 2014 finished 14th with the then voting rules, but if we apply the split system, it would have finished 8th, despite beind 23rd with the Juries. The same thing happened in 2016 and secured the same spot (8th) despite finishing 25th with the Juries again...Australia 2017 finished 9th despite securing only 2 points from Televoting and finishing 25th.

Last year was the only time that we had two countries being in the Top-10 and had a 20+ ranking. Sweden finished 23rd in Televoting and 7th in total and Denmark finshed 21st with Juries and 9th in total.

The most important conclusion after looking at these numbers is that in order to secure the win, the maximum total that you can have with Televoting and Juries is 4. We can take that number in consideration the night of the final and after the Juries voting will be completed.

Looking at these numbers again there is a list of countries that would rule out to win this year. I know that the rehearsals are where things can change but cannot see how Icelnad will finish Top-3 in both categories. Russia has the voting power but cannot see a Top-3 finishing in either of the categories. Switzerland? Definitely Televoting Top-3 but very difficult for the Juries.

There are still 6 weeks to go and many things will change,especially during rehearsals. Do we have a sleeping giant hidden somewhere? A game changer maybe? Would love to hear your thoughts.