After reviewing the big favorites of Eurovision 2019, let's have a look at the countries that have some slim chances for the win or for a good placing.
Italy 15.00
Italy is puzzling me every single year and 2019 is not an exception. The reason is because Italy is the only Big-5 country that, because of its national final, usually sends competitive songs that have the handicap to be presented live just once in the final. Because of that is exceedingly difficult for someone to weigh them. Back in 2015, Il Volo made me sweat during the final, having not covered the case of an Italian victory and was partly right. They won televoting by 80 points! Juries balanced somehow the scoreboard and Italy finished 3rd.
In 2017 it was the big favorite. For two months they were leading the odds board and Italy was considered the sure winner. And then Portugal happened and when I saw Occidentalis Karma live, it didn't have the energy that used to have in San Remo. Not only they didn't win but they finished 6th. And last year, a song that went under the radar for the whole season and most of the punters had it somewhere between 10th and 20th and with an amazing televoting again, Italy manages to finish 5th, even better than the year that they were the favorite!
Things are no different this year. Mahmood sings his personal story when his father abandoned him and his mother. The personal element and the melody of the song are the pluses. The weakest link is the televoting appeal of the song in San Remo, but Eurovision is a different field. Italy could be the dark horse of this year. The Top-10 is secured and is aiming for higher. Waiting to see the final product.
Sweden 15.50
Melodifestivalen ( Swedish national final) gives Sweden the luxury to send to the contest solid songs that have a broad appeal to the public. The brand name gives them some extra points, especially with the juries, but lately the swedish songs lack something that makes the difference. Sentiments and originality. They are to slick and don't have the fragility that can make the difference.
In my opinion this is the year that Sweden will go busted with the juries as well. John Lundvik sings a gospel song that does not have the climax that Austria had last year neither the originality nor the wow factor. Market has the same opinion. Started the pre-rehearsal season as a 2nd favorite @7.00-8.00, currently 6th and going further down. Top-10 will be its ceiling.
Iceland 16.00
The song that I bet you any money, will be the talk of the town when rehearsals start. Would that be enough to secure a win? I would never bet my money on a song that is called "Hate will prevail'. A dystopic track about the end of happiness is not everyone's cup of tea, especially on a European family show. Add to that the BDSM part of the staging and I cannot figure out how Iceland can finish in the Top-10 with the juries. Curious to see the reception of this one from the televoters as well.
Honorable mentions:
Cyprus 22.00, Malta 24.00, Portugal 44.00, Slovenia 70.00
Waiting for the rehearsals to have a better idea of how these songs will be.
Would love to hear your thoughts and opinions.
My short opinion about Portugal. Beside Conan fans, I don't really see who would have Portugal in their top 3. Yes, it's something new and unheard but it's too sophisticated for average listener. I miss a memorable melody. I can hardly differentiate song elements one from another. Personally, I think Portugal will hardly qualify let alone win the whole thing.
ReplyDeleteNice to see a familiar sofabet face! I do love Portugal and still think that could achieve a Top-10 result but this is the ceiling of this song. Way too leftfield to have mass appeal.
DeleteThough i don't think that will fail to qualify