This post will examine the split voting for the Top-3 of the semis and the minimum requirements to secure a Semi Final win. A small reminder that I have implemented the current voting system to the 2014 and 2015 semis,since we have the data available. There are some interesting findings that I would like to share with you.
Norway 2018 is the first country ever that wins a Semi even though it finished 3rd with the Televoting (133 points) and 2nd with the Juries (133 points as well)!
In 6 occasions the winner of the Semi won both Televoting and Juries (Netherlands 2014, Austria 2014, Russia 2015, Sweden 2015, Portugal2017 and Bulgaria 2017)
In an occasion the winner of the Televoting finished 2nd with the Juries (Russia 2016) and at another occasion the winner of the Juries ranked 2nd with the Televoting (Australia 2016).
2018 gave two more remarkable findings apart from Norway's victory. Israel is the only country that secured the win even though it failed to be Top-3 with the Televoting, finishing 4th with 116 points. The other interesting fact is that in Semi 2, the televoting winnner (Denmark 164 points and 204 in total) failed to secure a Top-3 result ending up 5th.
I do not know if 2018 is a sign of a new tendency where Jurors tend to disagree with the public, but it is a fact that these two where the two toughest semis so far.
2018 - 1st
1. Israel 283 pts: Televoting - 4th , Juries - 1st
2. Cyprus 262 pts: Televotning - 1st, Juries - 6th
3. Czechia 232 pts: Televoting - 2nd , Juries - 5th
Point Differential: 21 / 2nd closest
2018 - 2nd
1. Norway 266 pts: Televoting - 3rd, Juries - 2nd
2. Sweden 254 pts: Televoting - 6th, Juries - 1st
3. Moldova 235 pts: Televoting - 2nd, Juries - 7th
Point Differential: 12 / Closest ever with the current system
It will be very interesting to see how 2019 folds out...
The second and biggest part of this post will examine the behavior of each country for the last 5 years with the 50/50 system and their records in semis and will try to identify patterns. And the countdown begins...
Semi Final 1
1. Cyprus
Q: 7/13
Current Streak: 4 Q
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 Q
15b: 6th / 156 pts, TV: 8th/80 - J: 8th/76
16a: 8th / 164 pts, TV: 6th/ 93 - J: 9th/71
17a: 5th / 164 pts, TV: 5th/103- J: 10th/61
18a: 2nd / 262 pts, TV: 1st/173 - J: 6th/89
Average: 5.3th / 18 Contestants, 186.5 pts
Average TV: 5th / 112.3 pts
Average J: 8.3th / 74.3 pts
Cyprus is doing slightly better with the Televoting because of the nature of its songs and this year I am expecting a similar result. Lots of friends and allies as well will guarantee high rankings in both categories.
2. Montenegro
Q: 2/10
Current Streak: 3 NQ
Running Order record: 4/12 Q , Current Streak: 3 NQ
14a: 9th / 117 pts, TV: 10th/43 - J: 7th/74
15b: 10th / 105 pts, TV: 9th/58 - J: 11th/47
16a: 13th / 60 pts, TV: 17th/ 14 - J: 10th/46
17a: 16th / 56 pts, TV: 11th/39 - J: 16th/17
18b: 16th / 40 pts, TV: 14th/17 - J: 14th/23
Average: 12.8th / 17.4 Contestants, 75.6 pts
Average TV: 12.2th / 34.2 pts
Average J: 11.6th / 41.4 pts
Montenegro is always strugglingon both sides of the board and probably this will be the case this year as well. I predict that it will get a few extra points on its televoting this year because of Serbia's presence but expect a similar result of the previous two years.
3. Finland
Q: 7/14
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 5/12 Q , Current Streak: 3 Q
14b: 3rd / 180 pts, TV: 7th/63 - J: 2nd/117
15a: 16th / 52 pts, TV: 10th/51 - J: 16th/1
16a: 15th / 51 pts, TV: 15th/16 - J: 12th/35
17a: 12th / 92 pts, TV: 10th/51 - J: 12th/41
18b: 10th / 108 pts, TV: 7th/73 - J: 15th/35
Average: 11.2th / 17.2 Contestants, 96.6 pts
Average TV: 9.8th / 50.8 pts
Average J: 11.4th / 45.8 pts
Mixed results for Finland that tends to do slightly better with the televoting. Interesting fact though that back in 2017 failed to qualify because of the Juries' scores, even though it was considered to have a jury friendly song and the opposite was the case back in 2014. Difficult year ahead with Estonia and Estonia the only countries that can give some support.
4. Poland
Q: 5/12
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 5/12 Q , Current Streak: 4 NQ
14b: 5th / 150 pts, TV: 3rd/116 - J: 12th/34
15b: 8th / 124 pts, TV: 4th/114 - J: 16th/10
16b: 6th / 151 pts, TV: 4th/131 - J: 15th/20
17a: 9th / 119 pts, TV: 6th/69 - J: 11th/50
18b: 14th / 81 pts, TV: 10th/60 - J: 15th/21
Average: 8.4th / 17.2 Contestants, 125 pts
Average TV: 5.4th / 98 pts
Average J: 13.8th / 27 pts
Poland is the definition of a case study! Never failed to miss Top-10 with Televoting, never made it with the Juries! The question is if the Polish diaspora will back their song. My answer would be that this year they will definitely vote for their song and help it qualify to the final. The running order is not on their side but if they can secure 40-45 jury points, they will sail to the final.
5. Slovenia
Q: 5/15
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 4 Q
14b: 10th / 108 pts, TV: 9th/48 - J: 8th/60
15b: 5th / 179 pts, TV: 7th/95 - J: 6th/84
16b: 14th / 57 pts, TV: 17th/8 - J: 10th/45
17a: 17th / 36 pts, TV: 16th/20 - J: 17th/16
18b: 8th / 132 pts, TV: 9th/65 - J: 8th/67
Average: 10.8th / 17.2 Contestants, 102.4 pts
Average TV: 11.6th / 47.2 pts
Average J: 9.8th / 54.4 pts
Slovenia tends to score better with the juries but their songs tend to be balanced and score more or less the same amount of points on both boards. Slovenia also has one of the best running orders of the first half. I have a feeling that will score slighlty better with the juries and will qualify to the final.
6. Czechia
Q: 2/7
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 NQ
15b: 13th / 85 pts, TV: 10th/51 - J: 12th/34
16a: 9th / 161 pts, TV: 12th/41 - J: 4th/120
17a: 13th / 83 pts, TV: 18th/2 - J: 7th/81
18b: 3rd / 232 pts, TV: 2nd/134 - J: 5th/98
Average: 9.5th / 18 Contestants, 140.3 pts
Average TV: 10.5th / 57 pts
Average J: 7th / 83.3 pts
Czechia was heavily dependant on the juries to secure a good result and last year changed direction and had the best result ever. This year is coming back with the same recipe hoping to qualify and maybe sneak in the Top-10.
7. Hungary
Q: 10/12
Current Streak: 8 Q
Running Order record: 7/12 Q , Current Streak: 3 Q
14a: 2nd / 247 pts, TV: 2nd/125 - J: 3rd/122
15a: 10th / 113 pts, TV: 12th/45 - J: 6th/68
16a: 4th / 197 pts, TV: 3rd/119 - J: 8th/78
17b: 2nd / 231 pts, TV: 2nd/165 - J: 7th/66
18b: 10th / 111 pts, TV: 5th/88 - J: 13th/23
Average: 5,6th / 17.2 Contestants, 179.8 pts
Average TV: 4.8th / 108.4 pts
Average J: 7.4th / 71.4 pts
Believe it or not, Hungary has the longest qualifying streak with 8 years in a raw! Tends to score better with televoting but i think that this year their points will be more balanced. Can they make it?
8. Belarus
Q: 5/15
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 7/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 Q
14b: 4th/ 157 pts, TV: 6th/86 - J: 6th/71
15a: 11th / 97 pts, TV: 13th/32 - J: 7th/65
16b: 12th / 84 pts, TV: 9th/59 - J: 12th/32
17b: 9th / 110 pts, TV: 7th/55 - J: 9th/55
18a: 16th / 65 pts, TV: 13th/45 - J: 17th/20
Average: 10.4th / 17.2 Contestants, 102.6 pts
Average TV: 9.6th / 54 pts
Average J: 10.2th / 48.6 pts
Mixed results for Belarus. Will definitely score better with the public this year but cannot see where they will find the points to qualify.
9. Serbia
Q: 7/10
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 Q
15a: 9th / 121 pts, TV: 7th/78 - J: 14th/43
16b: 10th / 105 pts, TV: 10th/50 - J: 9th/55
17b: 11th / 98 pts, TV: 11th/45 - J: 10th/53
18b: 9th / 117 pts, TV: 8th/72 - J: 11th/45
Average: 9.8th / 17.5 Contestants, 110.3 pts
Average TV: 9th / 61.3 pts
Average J: 11th / 49 pts
Juries tried to 'penalize' Serbia twice but it finaly made it to the final. Televoting though prevented them qualifying in 2017. Marginal qualifications and disqualifications. Interested to see what will happen this year.
10. Belgium
Q: 5/14
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 8/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 Q
14a: 15th/ 65 pts, TV: 12th/41 - J: 14th/24
15a: 2nd / 251 pts, TV: 3rd/112 - J: 2nd/139
16b: 3rd / 274 pts, TV: 3rd/135 - J: 2nd/139
17a: 4th / 165 pts, TV: 3rd/125 - J: 13th/40
18a: 12th / 91 pts, TV: 16th/20 - J: 9th/71
Average: 7.2th / 17.4 Contestants, 169.2 pts
Average TV: 7.4th / 86.6 pts
Average J: 8th / 83.2 pts
The situation is balanced for Belgium. Last year public forced them to miss the final and back in 2017 jurors had it 13th while televoters 3rd. My prediction for this year is that it will score better with juries.
11. Georgia
Q: 7/11
Current Streak: 2 NQ
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ
14b: 15th/ 48 pts, TV: 15th/15 - J: 13th/33
15a: 4th / 186 pts, TV: 4th/96 - J: 3rd/90
16b: 9th / 123 pts, TV: 11th/39 - J: 7th/84
17a: 11th/ 99 pts, TV: 13th/37 - J: 8th/62
18b: 18th / 24 pts, TV: 17th/13 - J: 18th/11
Average: 11.4th / 17 Contestants, 96 pts
Average TV: 12th / 40 pts
Average J: 9.8th / 56 pts
Juries gave the green light back in 2016 and were not enough in 2017 but did help Georgia. I don't know if they will be enough for this year even though Georgia has some allies on the semi.
12. Australia
Q: 3/3
Current Streak: 3 Q
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ
16b: 1st/ 330 pts, TV: 2nd/142 - J: 1st/188
17a: 6th/ 160 pts, TV: 15th/21 - J: 2nd/139
18b: 4th / 212 pts, TV: 7th/82 - J: 3rd/130
Average: 3.7th / 18 Contestants, 234 pts
Average TV: 8th / 81.7 pts
Average J: 2nd / 152.3 pts
Impressive record so far and a pattern is emerging! Juries are in love with Australia and the country never failed to finish out of the Top-3. Televoting is slightly different with 2017 being the top of the iceberg, rewarding Australia with just 21 of its 160 pts...For 2019 i have a risky prediction to make. I believe that they will score better with the public.
13. Iceland
Q: 7/14
Current Streak: 4 NQ
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ
14b: 8th/ 118 pts, TV: 9th/50 - J: 8th/68
15b: 15th/ 36 pts, TV: 14th/21 - J: 15th/15
16b: 14th / 51 pts, TV: 13th/24 - J: 13th/27
17a: 15th/ 60 pts, TV: 14th/31 - J: 15th/29
18a: 19th / 15 pts, TV: 19th/0 - J: 19th/15
Average: 14.2th / 17.6 Contestants, 56 pts
Average TV: 15.8th / 25.2 pts
Average J: 14th / 30.8 pts
The country runs one of its worst streaks, that will most probably end this year. Qualification isn't a matter, but the Juries are the ones that can bring them close to victory or take the dream away.
14. Estonia
Q: 6/15
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ
14a: 13th/ 74 pts, TV: 16th/13 - J: 10th/61
15a: 3rd/ 189 pts, TV: 2nd/129 - J: 10th/60
16a: 18th / 24 pts, TV: 16th/15 - J: 18th/9
17b: 14th/ 85 pts, TV: 6th/69 - J: 17th/16
18a: 5th / 201 pts, TV: 3rd/120 - J: 7th/81
Average: 10.6th / 17.4 Contestants, 114.6 pts
Average TV: 8.6th / 69.2 pts
Average J: 12.4th / 45.4 pts
Estonia is televoting dependant when it comes to qualification. Juries tend to keep them low. The worst placing for a Top-3 song on any Semi since 2014 belongs to Estonia in 2015 when it was 10th with the juries.
15. Portugal
Q: 4/12
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 10/12 Q , Current Streak: 4 Q
14a: 10th/ 89 pts, TV: 7th/72 - J: 16th/17
15b: 14th/ 47 pts, TV: 13th/24 - J: 13th/23
17a: 1st/ 370 pts, TV: 1st/197 - J: 1st/173
Average: 8.3th / 17 Contestants, 168.7 pts
Average TV: 7th / 97.7 pts
Average J: 10th / 71 pts
Small sample that is skewed by Salvador Sobral's performance. My intuition says that this year Portugal will score better with juries.
16. Greece
Q: 10/12
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 5/11 Q , Current Streak: 3 NQ
14b: 9th/ 143 pts, TV: 5th/91 - J: 9th/52
15a: 6th/ 148 pts, TV: 9th/59 - J: 4th/89
16a: 16th / 44 pts, TV: 14th/2 - J: 16th/22
17a: 10th/ 115 pts, TV: 9th/54 - J: 9th/61
18a: 14th / 81 pts, TV: 10th/53 - J: 16th/28
Average: 11th / 17.2 Contestants, 106.2 pts
Average TV: 9.4th / 55.8 pts
Average J: 10.8th / 50.4 pts
Greece tends to do better with the televoters but lately lost that advantage. Curious to see where and how will score better this year.
17. San Marino
Q: 1/9
Current Streak: 4 NQ
Running Order record: 3/8 Q , Current Streak: 1 Q
14a: 12th/ 83 pts, TV: 8th/58 - J: 13th/25
15b: 16th/ 22 pts, TV: 15th/16 - J: 17th/6
16a: 12th / 68 pts, TV: 11th/49 - J: 17th/19
17b: 18th/ 1 pt, TV: 18th/0 - J: 18th/1
18b: 17th / 28 pts, TV: 16th/14 - J: 17th/14
Average: 15th / 17.4 Contestants, 40.4 pts
Average TV: 13.6th / 27.4 pts
Average J: 14.4th / 13 pts
The poorest results on the field. San Marino will definitely score better with televoters but don't think will be enough to secure a spot at the final.
I hope you find my analysis helpful. Stay tuned to Eurovisionbetsandpieces blogspot for the analysis of Semi Final 2.
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