EurovisionBetsandPieces: One Eurovision Data analysis to rule them all! (Semi Finals Part 3)

This is the third and final part of the Semi Finals analysis and will be focused on the 2nd Semi Final. Rehearsals are almost around the corner and things will start heating up. The posts will start coming on a daily basis so stay tunned and also follow https://twitter.com/eurovisionbets  on Twitter and on  Facebook as well for any updates.





Semi Final 2

1. Armenia

Q: 9/11
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 NQ

14a: 4th / 223 pts, TV: 4th/121 - J: 4th/102
15a: 7th / 134 pts,  TV: 6th/80 - J: 11th/54
16a: 2nd / 243 pts,   TV: 4th/ 116 - J: 3rd/127
17a: 7th / 152 pts,  TV: 7th/65 - J: 6th/87
18b: 15th / 79 pts,  TV: 14th/41 - J: 14th/38

Average: 7th / 17.4 Contestants, 166.2 pts
Average TV: 7th / 84.6 pts
Average J: 7.6th / 81.6 pts

A balanced presence for Armenia for the last 5 years, getting points from both sides. I do believe that Armenia will be in trouble this year because of  its early spot and will need all possible support to qualify. It gives me some Israel 2014 vibes. Has enough support on the semi but with all the favorites coming after it will be marginal.


2. Ireland

Q: 6/13
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 4/12 Q , Current Streak: 3 NQ

14b: 13th / 80 pts, TV: 10th/47 - J: 14th/33
15b: 12th / 98 pts,  TV: 16th/14 - J: 7th/84
16b: 15th / 46 pts,   TV: 14th/ 31 - J: 16th/15
17b: 13th / 86 pts,  TV: 12th/41 - J: 12th/45
18a: 6th / 179 pts,  TV: 6th/108 - J: 8th/71

Average: 11.8th / 17.4 Contestants, 97.8 pts
Average TV: 11.6th / 48.2 pts
Average J: 11.4th / 49.6 pts

Another balanced country, not that it will be relevant this year. Ireland is destined to return to its previous mediocre results after last year's success. Probably will score better with the public but not enough to boost its qualifying chances.

3. Moldova

Q: 9/13
Current Streak: 2 Q
Running Order record: 5/12 Q , Current Streak: 3 Q

14a: 16th / 39 pts, TV: 15th/14 - J: 15th/24
15a: 12th / 94  pts,  TV: 11th/48 - J: 13th/46
16a: 17th / 33 pts,   TV: 18th/9 - J: 15th/24
17a: 2nd / 291 pts,  TV: 2nd/180 - J: 4th/111
18b: 3rd / 235 pts,  TV: 2nd/153 - J: 7th/82

Average: 10th / 17.2 Contestants, 138.4 pts
Average TV: 9.6th / 80.8 pts
Average J: 10.8th / 58.2 pts

Moldova is one of the countries that have found the recipe for success but this year denies to use in its favor. Whenever they are sending a feel good kind of comical song not only they qualify but they finish in Top-10 or higher. This year they have taken a different direction and they will pay the cost. Televoting is their power but this year they have to rely on juries for a good result and i cannot see that happening.

4. Switzerland

Q: 3/14
Current Streak: 4 NQ
Running Order record: 5/12 Q , Current Streak: 4 NQ

14b: 7th / 149 pts, TV: 4th/98 - J: 10th/51
15b: 17th / 21  pts,  TV: 17th/6 - J: 14th/15
16b: 18th / 28 pts,   TV: 18th/3 - J: 14th/25
17b: 12th / 97 pts,  TV: 10th/49 - J: 11th/48
18a: 13th / 86 pts,  TV: 15th/27 - J: 10th/59

Average: 13.4th / 17.4 Contestants, 76.2 pts
Average TV: 12.8th / 36.6 pts
Average J: 11.8th / 39.6 pts

One of the worst possible combinations that proves that numbers do not mean anything if you have a strong song. Switzerland with one the weakest qulifying records and the 2nd worst streak of  non qualifications in one of the worst possible slots with the current longest non qualifying streak! And still, Switzerland will sail to the final. Will definitely score better with the televoters but difficult to secure a Top-3 ranking from that order.


5. Latvia

Q: 5/14
Current Streak: 2 NQ
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 4 Q

14a: 14th / 67 pts, TV: 13th/40 - J: 12th/27
15b: 3rd / 271  pts,  TV: 3rd/116 - J: 2nd/155
16b: 8th / 132 pts,   TV: 7th/68 - J: 8th/64
17a: 18th / 21 pts,  TV: 17th/20 - J: 18th/1
18b: 12th / 106 pts,  TV: 15th/14 - J: 6th/92

Average: 11th / 17.4 Contestants, 119.4 pts
Average TV: 11th / 51.6 pts
Average J: 9.2th / 67.8 pts

Latvia tends to score better with Juries and that is a plus for this year. They have enough allies as well on the semi, the song has some quality but can easily see it having a similar result to last year. I strongly believe that 80-85 points is its ceiling and will not be enough to send it to the final.

6. Romania

Q: 10/11
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 NQ

14b: 2nd / 225  pts,  TV: 2nd/126 -  J: 5th/99
15a: 5th / 159 pts,   TV: 5th/93 - J: 8th/64
17b: 6th / 174 pts,  TV: 3rd/148 - J: 15th/26
18b: 11th / 107 pts,  TV: 13th/40 - J: 9th/67

Average: 6th / 16.8 Contestants, 166.3 pts
Average TV: 5.8th / 101.8 pts
Average J: 9.3th / 64 pts

Romania will need its televoting power to qualify and this is making things difficult. A song that suffered on its own national final with televoting will struggle on that semi, unless the Romanian diaspora will back it heavily but even then it will be tough.

7. Denmark

Q: 9/13
Current Streak: 2 Q
Running Order record: 7/12 Q , Current Streak: 3 Q

15a: 14th / 74  pts,  TV: 14th/23 - J: 12th/51
16b: 17th / 34 pts,   TV: 15th/24 - J: 17th/10
17b: 10th / 101 pts,  TV: 16th/5 - J: 5th/96
18b: 5th / 204 pts,  TV: 1st/164 - J: 12th/40

Average: 11.5th / 17.5 Contestants, 103.3 pts
Average TV: 11.5th / 54 pts
Average J: 11.5th / 49.3 pts

Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde of the Eurovision Semis! Made it to the final twice in a row even though it finished 16th with the televoting on 2017 getting just 5 points! 2018 focused on the televoting and finished 1st but managed only a 12th place with the Juries! In 2019 I reckon that things will be more balanced. Qualitywise Denmark can get points both from televoting and juries, though Norway will defnitely affect its televoting result and Sweden its jury result. For the moment i give it a 60% to qualify.


8. Sweden

Q: 9/10
Current Streak: 8 Q
Running Order record: 7/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 Q

14a: 3rd/ 247 pts, TV: 3rd/122 - J: 2nd/125
15b: 1st / 403  pts,  TV: 1st/195 - J: 1st/208
17a: 3rd / 227 pts,  TV: 4th/103 - J: 3rd/124
18b: 2nd / 254 pts,  TV: 6th/83 - J: 1st/171

Average: 2.5th / 17.3 Contestants, 282.8 pts
Average TV: 3.5th / 125.8 pts
Average J: 1.8th / 157 pts

Somewhere in a parallel universe Sweden might not qualify to the final. Its jury performance the last 5 years is astonishing never failing to land outside the Top-3. There is a pattern also with the televoting that i strongly believe that will continue this year, maybe not on the semi but definitely on the final. Televoting wise the late Swedish song do not have the same appeal that they used to have.

9. Austria

Q: 5/9
Current Streak: 5 Q
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 Q

15b: 1st / 303  pts,  TV: 1st/165 -  J: 1st/138
16a: 7th / 170 pts,   TV: 2nd/133 - J: 11th/37
17b: 7th / 147 pts,  TV: 14th/32 - J: 4th/115
18a: 4th / 231 pts,  TV: 5th/72 - J: 2nd/115

Average: 4.8th / 17.5 Contestants, 212.8 pts
Average TV: 5.5th / 111.5 pts
Average J: 4.5th / 101.3 pts

Austria has built a very good streak of qualifications that unfortunately will stop this year. Personally i find the song interesting but it will fail both with the juries and televoting. Coming after Sweden as well does not make it any easier. Will definitely score better with juries.


10. Croatia

Q: 6/12
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 8/12 Q , Current Streak: 1 Q

16a: 10th / 133 pts,   TV: 10th/53 - J: 7th/80
17b: 8th / 141 pts,  TV: 5th/104 - J: 13th/37
18a: 17th / 63 pts,  TV: 17th/17 - J: 13th/46

Average: 11.7th / 18.7 Contestants, 112.3 pts
Average TV: 10.7th / 58 pts
Average J: 11th / 54.3 pts

Another case where numbers do not give us a single clue about this year. Croatia will be lucky if it will not finish last.


11. Malta

Q: 6/13
Current Streak: 2 NQ
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ

14b: 6th/ 149 pts, TV: 12th/36 - J: 3rd/113
15b: 9th / 116  pts,  TV: 12th/32 - J: 5th/84
16a: 3rd / 209 pts,   TV: 9th/54 - J: 1st/155
17b: 16th/ 55 pts,  TV: 18th/0 - J: 8th/55
18b: 13th / 101 pts,  TV: 18th/8 - J: 5th/93

Average: 9.2th / 17.2 Contestants, 128.8 pts
Average TV: 13.8th / 26 pts
Average J: 4.4th / 100 pts

Do it like Malta! For every point that it takes from the public, Malta takes four from the juries! Something that will definitely help their chances this year because of its televoting dependant song. One of the reasons that i have Malta as definite Top-10 on the final.


12. Lithuania

Q: 8/14
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 9/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ

14b: 12th/ 85 pts, TV: 11th/44 - J: 11th/41
15b: 7th / 150  pts,  TV: 6th/32 - J: 10th/52
16b: 4th / 222 pts,   TV: 6th/118 - J: 5th/104
17b: 17th/ 42 pts,  TV: 15th/25 - J: 16th/17
18a: 9th / 119 pts,  TV: 9th/62 - J: 11th/57

Average: 9.8th / 17.2 Contestants, 123.6 pts
Average TV: 9.4th / 69.4 pts
Average J: 10.6th / 54.2 pts

Lithuania will be mostly affected by its running order and not its history with televoting and juries. Has enough allies to get some help but will suffer sandwiched between Malta and Russia.


13. Russia

Q: 9/10
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ

14a: 7th/ 130 pts, TV: 6th/73 - J: 11th/57
15a: 1st/ 304  pts,  TV: 1st/145 - J: 1st/159
16a: 1st / 342 pts,   TV: 1st/194 - J: 2nd/148
18a: 15th / 65 pts,  TV: 11th/51 - J: 16th/14

Average: 6th / 17 Contestants, 201.3 pts
Average TV: 4.8th / 115.8 pts
Average J: 7.5th / 94.8 pts

Russia traditionally suffers with the Juries and focused on that part this year. What we need to see is what kind of show they will stage in order to keep the televoters happy. They won't have any problem to qualify. The focus is on the final.

14. Albania

Q: 7/14
Current Streak: 1 Q
Running Order record: 6/12 Q , Current Streak: 2 NQ

14a: 11th/ 87 pts, TV: 14th/23 - J: 9th/64
15a: 8th/ 127  pts,  TV: 8th/66 - J: 9th/61
16b: 16th / 45 pts,   TV: 12th/35 - J: 18th/10
17a: 14th/ 76 pts,  TV: 12th/38 - J: 14th/38
18a: 8th / 162 pts,  TV: 11th/48 - J: 3rd/114

Average: 11.4th / 17.4 Contestants, 99.4 pts
Average TV: 11.4th / 42 pts
Average J: 10.6th / 57.4 pts

Albania will rely on Juries and diaspora one more time. It's a 50-50 call and my gutt says it will be 11th on that semi. There is still hope.


15. Norway

Q: 9/12
Current Streak: 2 Q
Running Order record: 10/12 Q , Current Streak: 4 Q

14b: 4th/ 155 pts, TV: 8th/55 - J: 4th/100
15b: 4th/ 248  pts,  TV: 5th/104 - J: 3rd/144
16b: 13th/ 63 pts,  TV: 13th/34 - J: 13th/29
17b: 5th/ 189 pts,  TV: 8th/52 - J: 3rd/137
18b: 1st / 266 pts,  TV: 3rd/133 - J: 2nd/133


Average: 5.8th / 17.2 Contestants, 184.2 pts
Average TV: 7.4th / 75.6 pts
Average J: 5th / 108.6 pts

Norway is the first country ever to win a semi, even though it hasn't won  the  televoting or the juries and that happened last year (2nd and 3rd). It is one of the songs that gives me different vibes. It is my main candidate for a shocker non qualifier. Waiting to see the rehearsal.


16. Netherlands

Q: 6/15
Current Streak: 3 Q
Running Order record: 5/11 Q , Current Streak: 3 NQ

14a: 1st/ 277 pts, TV: 1st/147 - J: 1st/130
15a: 13th/ 93  pts,  TV: 15th/23 - J: 5th/70
16a: 5th / 197 pts,   TV: 5th/95 - J: 5th/102
17b: 4th/ 200 pts,  TV: 9th/51 - J: 2nd/149
18b: 7th / 174 pts,  TV: 12th/47 - J: 4th/127

Average: 6th / 17.2 Contestants, 188.2 pts
Average TV: 8.4th / 72.6 pts
Average J: 3.4th / 115.6 pts

Nothing to add here! Being after Russia and Switzerlad is helpful but the focus is the final. Will it get the momentum needed? Few days left to find out!

17. North Macedonia

Q: 5/15
Current Streak: 6 NQ
Running Order record: 3/8 Q , Current Streak: 1 Q

14b: 11th/ 98 pts, TV: 13th/28 - J: 7th/70
15a: 15th/ 64  pts,  TV: 16th/22 - J: 15th/42
16b: 11th / 88 pts,   TV: 8th/54 - J: 11th/34
17b: 15th/ 69 pts,  TV: 13th/40 - J: 14th/29
18a: 18th / 24 pts,  TV: 18th/6 - J: 18th/18

Average: 14th / 17.2 Contestants, 68.6 pts
Average TV: 11.2th / 30 pts
Average J: 13th / 38.6 pts

If not this year then when? Producers tried to help as much as possible and Macedonia has a decent song that can be helped both from juries and televoting. Staging is always a problem for their delegation and will be the key factor. If they fail again the only option in the future will be to hire famous artists to represent their country.


18. Azerbaijan

Q: 9/10
Current Streak: 1 NQ
Running Order record: 5/6 Q , Current Streak: 3 Q

14a: 6th/ 135 pts, TV: 11th/41 - J: 5th/94
15b: 11th/ 104  pts,  TV: 11th/37 - J: 9th/67
16a: 6th / 185 pts,   TV: 7th/93 - J: 6th/92
17a: 8th/ 150 pts,  TV: 8th/63 - J: 5th/87
18a: 11th / 94 pts,  TV: 12th/47 - J: 11th/47

Average: 8.4th / 17.6 Contestants, 133.6 pts
Average TV: 9.8th / 56.2 pts
Average J: 7.2th / 77.4 pts

Pimp slot on the 2nd semi is the perfect boost for a Top-3 in the semi and a Top-10 finishing at the final. Azerbaijan has the potential to tick both boxes. Sailing to the final.

After all the technical analysis, the next post will be focused on the betting part of the contest. After all, this is all this blog is about. I hope you find my data useful for your bets and would like to hear your opinions and thoughts about this year.