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The biggest surprise of all was Slovenia that managed to qualify almost out of nowhere. I reckon that we did have a close race for the #9-#12 spots and Slovenia scraped through by a very small margin.
There wasn't a shocker non qualifier. Poland could be considered a surprise result but in reality it wasn't. This has been the weakest entry vocally in the whole lineup and the Polish diaspora decided not to support their entry. It has happened again in the past, I did mention it to my SF-1 analysis but decided not to bet against them.
Serbia was always a borderline entry and could have gone either way. Still happy with my bet against them because there was value (2.48 for a coin toss). Here is my analysis for SF-1 for those who missed it and now is time to focus on tonight's outcome.
This is a tougher Semi - Final to crack down with thirteen entries that still stand a chance to qualify. The difference in quality between the two Semi - Finals is enormous with Semi - Final 2 carrying 7-8 potential Top-10 entries in its lineup so the qualification bar is set really high for tonight and no mistakes are allowed.
Malta is opening the Semi and the staging has been improved very much. It does work as a show opener, however the comparisons with 'SloMo' and 'Unicorn' choreos will be unavoidable and Malta is traditionally suffering with the Public vote.
Malta not to qualify over 1.30 is fair and could be used for a combo bet.
Albania has taken out anything that reminded of Albania song and stage wise when their target group is the Albanian diaspora. Add the death slot and you have the perfect coctail for disaster tonight.
Having three straight qualifiers coming from #2 when there were only two in ten years until the SF-2 last year is a big ask.
I will do the same thing I did with Poland in SF-1 and leave Albania alone just because there is no point of taking a risk for a non qualification at 1.25 and I have no motive or data to back them.
Greece is sailing to the Final but is a missed opportunity in my opinion. They have taken many risks this year with 'Zari' and I am delighted that they did, but the staging is very underwhelming. Many ideas thrown at the same time with the hope that they could work all together but they don't.
I find the staging very basic with a choreo we have seen many times in the past.
I mentioned to the podcast last night something that could potentially hurt Greece's result tonight. Tonight there is a football game in Greece with Olympiakos playing against Aston Villa to qualify to the Europa Conference League final. It could be the first time that a Greek team will play in a football European Final since 1970!
I do expect the majority of diaspora and the majority of the Greek audience in Greece as well to watch that game tonight instead of the Semi - Final. There is a big chance for the Greek score tonight to be lower of what it could have been.
Add to that the fact that Marina is under the weather and Switzerland is performing after them and there are enough reasons to oppose a good result for Greece in Semi - Final.
For those who bet in Greece and Cyprus stoiximan offers
Greece not to finish in SF Top-3 @1.60 and Greece not to finish in SF Top-5 @2.67.
There is huge value there and the Top-5 would have been my main bet for tonight if my tips were for Greece only.
Switzerland is coming for win on Saturday but they do want to make a statement tonight as well. Nemo is delivering a faultless performance running and jumping around on stage without missing any notes and the crowd loves it.
Last night they unexpectedly won the audience poll by a vote against Netherlands and that was a very good sign for Saturday night's Public vote appeal.
To win the Semi - Final at 4.50 is a bit short but would be tempted to place a fun bet later tonight if these odds drift to the 6.00+ area.
Czechia is next and I have tp admit that Aiko has been probably the biggest improvement of the whole season. One of the few revamps that is actually working and a very powerful staging that serves the purpose of the song.
The current odds for qualification are at 4.60 and I would not try to change someone's mind if they are backing Czechia but they are not in my book for tonight.
I will not be surprised if they make it.
Austria has been circled as a potential non qualifier candidate since the first time I heard the song and two months after we are heading to that direction.
Kaleen performing after Slimane is one of the biggest downgrades in vocal abilities in the whole contest. Like Matt mentioned in the podcast, you can see the fear in her eyes while performing and she does look very vulnerable to be honest.
Austria is building a tradition in the last few years overhyping their entries that in the end fail or underperform on stage and the same will happen tonight.
'We Will Rave' has everything lined-up to become Halo 2.0 and this will be my main bet for tonight. Currently Austria not to qualify trades in the 2.75-3.00 area. I got it as high as 6.50 a few weeks ago and I do think it will be odds on later tonight.
Denmark is my candidate for the last place tonight. Saba was very shaky yesterday from the very first verse and there are parts of the song that she still cannot sing.
The song is radio friendly but does not work in a contest and Denmark's recent bad track record will continue.
Denmark not to qualify at 1.30-1.35 could be used in a NQ combo
Armenia was in the conversation for the Final's Top-10 a few weeks ago but the rehearsals yesterday left me cold. I expected the crowd to be carried away and create a party atmosphere but that was clearly not the case.
They have enough friends and allies to qualify easily but not sure about their impact on Saturday.
Again for those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers Armenia not to Finish in SF-2 Top-5 at 2.02 and I have taken that bet personally.
Latvia picked in late January when things were still foggy in most countries and since then they are spiraling from a Top-10 candidate to a 100% non qualifying entry.
The song is not bad but the staging and Dons denial to stare at the camera are the main reasons Latvia will prolong its non qualifying streak.
San Marino was the biggest surprise yesterday having one of the most refreshing and full of energy staging.
Coming after Spain, is a great reminder for the Spanish audience to support Megara and guarantee their 12 points. Add a few more from Italy's public vote as well and I find no reason San Marino cannot find the 30-35 points missing for the qualification threshold.
I have been backing them for a while and did the same yesterday as well during their rehearsal.
San Marino to qualify at 3.25 in Betfair Exchange will be my other tip for tonight and there is still value there.
Georgia has killed any conversation for a potential failure since the pre-parties and Nutsa is oozing energy on stage. She is a strong performer and the song might be a bit generic but applies all the fundamentals great and will be sailing to the Final. No value in current odds though.
Belgium the other strong candidate for a shocker non qualification. I have been backing that since the pre-parties and the running order does not help them at all.
Coming after San Marino and Georgia and before Estonia and Italy could massively hurt its chances being the only slow tempo song.
Mustii's egocentricity and aggressiveness does not help its cause either. The song it has enough quality to qualify and for that reason I will only tip it on a fun bet combo.
Estonia is much slicker than it used to be in its national final and they are sailing to the Final. This is by far the best odds on value for a qualifier.
Estonia to qualify at 1.41 in Betfair exchange is a value bet.
Israel has a simple but effective staging and is jury oriented, knowing that their diaspora will back them either way. There were many boos in the evening but not enough to disrupt the performance.
This is an extra motive for their diaspora to support them. There is no value in any bet for them being the biggest unknown in this season.
Norway is there offering a great spectacle that goes unnoticed for the whole season and I tend to believe that I belong to the small minority that likes this one.
Stoiximan has a great value bet that I have already taken.
Norway to score 0-65 points in the SF @13
Netherlands is a great way to close the show and Joost is excellent on stage. The have taken 100% the fun direction and have admitted that they have no winning ambitions.
I was expecting a better result in the audience poll that did not come and still expect them to win tonight but the 300+ points in Public vote that many were/are expecting on Saturday feels now just wishful thinking and not something that could happen.
The Dutch have overhyped their entry and the bar was raised too high for what their entry was.
Still a candidate for the Top-5 in the Final though.
And now my prediction for the Semi -Final is
1. Netherlands 160-180pts
2. Switzerland 150-170
3. Israel 100-120
4. Georgia 90-110
5. Estonia 80-100
6. Greece 60-80
7. Armenia 55-75
8. Norway 50-70
9. San Marino 40-60
10. Belgium 30-50
11. Czechia 25-45
12. Albania 20-40
13. Austria 15-35
14. Latvia 10-30
15. Malta 10-25
16. Denmark 5-20
I am very confident for my Top-8 and I do think that San Marino will also make the cut but not sure at all about Belgium.
And now time for my betting tips.
There will be three in total, with two main bets and a fun bet as well
Austria lay @ 1.36 (NQ approx 4.05) in Betfair Exchange x 50 units
San Marino to Qualify @ 3.20 Betfair Exchange x 45 units
Austria and Belgium not to Qualify combo @13.5 (Betfair sportsbook) x 5 units
Any of the three bets would give me a great return and I am happy with the value each of these bets holds.
Good luck with your bets tonight and stay tunned for a new 'Talk About Things' episode tomorrow about the running order.
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