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Semi - Final 1 is here to entertain us and the two halves feel like the yin and yang.
The first half is one of the stronger we ever had while the second one is one of the weakest ever.
We had the conversation throughout the season that the impossible would happen and we could have 7/7 qualifications from the first half, something that has never happened.
The market suggests that it will happen, but I am more optimistic with a 6/7. If there is justice, all seven should have qualified because the second half does not have more than three entries that deserve to be in the Final.
So these are my thoughts for tonight.
Cyprus is sailing to the Final being the ideal opener. Its current odds are at 1.31 fair but with no value in my opinion.
Serbia has an entry that if in second half, would have easily qualified to the Final, but this is not an ordinary lineup and Serbia has everything against them. Very few allies and diaspora present in the Semi - Final, the death slot at #2. Since 2013 that we have the producers choosing the running order, there were only 3 entries that managed to be in the Public vote's Top-10 (Armenia x 2, Poland) both countries with big enough diaspora to back them and help them qualify.
Add to that the fact that Serbia is qualifying with difficulty every year and I think the time for a non qualification has come after 2013, when they failed to qualify performing from the pimp slot.
The first half of 'Ramonda' is taking a while to lift off and that might cost them. Having the three direct qualifiers also performing prolongs the duration of the Semi - Final as well and Serbia will be forgotten by the time we reach the last entry.
I have been laying Serbia since the running order was decided and this will be my main bet for tonight. The lay is currently at 1.67 (NQ 2.48). I will be happy if they qualify but for all the reasons mentioned above the non qualification is the value bet.
Lithuania will be battling for a spot in the Top-3 of the Semi - Final currently at 2.76 in the exchange market. There is a precedent in Semi - Final 2 back in 2018 (Public vote only) where all three entries finishing in Top-3 came from the first half. I will not tip it but I do have it in my book.
Ireland has produced one of the best theatrical three minutes we have ever seen in Eurovision. They have gone all in and that was the proper way to do it. Bambie Thug is a great performer and this will be the talk of the town in the next few days. The Irish are ready to go crazy and I could see this one trading in single odds if they get a second half draw. Of course Ireland is not winning Eurovision, but in a public vote only Semi - Final they could finish in Top-3 (1.70 Bf exchange).
I do find the odds a bit short but I have taken a different bet with Ireland included.
For those betting in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers forecasts (1-2) for the Semi - Finals and the combination 1.Croatia - 2. Ireland is at 13!!! This could be a fun bet or a moderate bet, a low risk high rewards approach.
Ukraine is the first contender for the night and the market has not been impressed. The problem is that their staging is missing a story. There are beautiful shots that are not connected to each other and the two girls interact only in the last few seconds. Top-3 in the Semi is more or less secured but there is no value in my opinion.
Poland is the weakest entry vocally in that first half and maybe the whole Semi- Final. The qualifying odds are very short but Poland has never had a problem being in Top-10 with the Public vote (only '21 missed the Top-10) and even though I am tempted, I will leave Luna alone.
I would not be surprised whatever the outcome is tonight.
Croatia was trading at 5+ just a week ago and currently is trading at 2.32! I have been backing Croatia since late January so I am more than happy with my position on them. Winning the Semi - Final at 1.32 feels short but there is no chance someone else is winning tonight.
Baby Lasagna is improving every time he is on stage and the staging has improved a lot since Dora two and a half months ago.
The crowds' reactions yesterday and the singalong in the second part along with the closing seconds are the only winning vibes we have seen so far this year.
Iceland coming after Croatia I reckon is EBU's payback time for what happened in Iceland's national final and a subtle way to send a message for the future. The weakest entry of all this year by far.
Slovenia has gradually lost ground and the staging has not added anything to help their cause. Raiven is vocally excellent but these are three very long minutes in a very underwhelming part of the Semi - Final and only Serbia and Croatia there to secure them 12-18 points. They will need more than 45-50 to feel safe and I struggle to see where they will come from. My average lay on them is at 1.94 but there is no value there currently.
Finland it is what it is and I do believe that it will qualify but I don't think it will do particularly well. It is fun but does not really offer a reason for someone to vote for it. If we had the 50/50 system I would be tempted to oppose it but there is no reason to do it now.
Moldova is the biggest riser since yesterday and not only is back in the qualification race but I do believe that it will qualify, favored by the four entries coming before it. It gives them credibility, the staging is simple but effective and Natalia's vocal abilities do stand out. It is trading at 5 to qualify in various betting companies and this is the best value odds someone can find tonight.
The fair odds should have been at 2.50-2.75 so I am happy to lose that bet everyday. This will be the second tip for tonight.
Azerbaijan does not have a bad song but there is no reason for someone to vote for them. Last place in the Semi - Final could happen.
Australia has a simple but beautiful staging but I am not sure the casual viewers will vote an aboriginal song and how relevant could that be for Eurovision. The last thirty seconds are very shaky as well. Australia is a borderline by definition and could go both ways. I am not tipping something here but I do think that Moldova will be the one to claim that last ticket.
Portugal has the best minimalistic staging of all entries and it does suit their entry 100%. A few weeks ago were trading at odds on and currently their qualifications odds are at 1.28. A bit short for my taste.
For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers a Head to head versus Slovenia at 1.66. This could be used to maximize the qualification value.
Luxembourg will be closing the Semi - Final and there are multiple mentions during the show about their return after 31 years. Sailing to the Final.
For the bettors in Greece and Cyprus, stoiximan offers the Top-5 in Semi - Final at 2.35 and there is definitely value there.
My classification for tonight is the following
1. Croatia 140-160 pts
2. Ireland 110-130 pts
3. Ukraine 100-120 pts
4. Lithuania 90-110
5. Luxembourg 70-90
6. Finland 60-80
7. Cyprus 55-75
8. Poland 50-70
9. Portugal 50-65
10. Moldova 45-65
11. Serbia 35-55
12. Australia 30-50
13. Slovenia 25-45
14. Azerbaijan 15-35
15. Iceland 0-10
I do think that the first nine entries are more or less certain qualifiers and the tenth spot will be a battle between Moldova, Serbia and Australia.
And now the fun time!! My tips for the Semi - Final. You can read my betting resolution for 2024 here.
I have 1000 units to invest, split in 100 units per Semi - Final and 800 units for the Final. The settled units from Semis could be used again in Semi 2 and/or Final.
I have decided to minimize my bets and aim for accuracy this year so there will be only two tips for Semi - Final 1
Serbia lay @ 1.67 (NQ 2.48) x 75 units
Moldova to qualify @ 5.00 (multiple companies) x 25 units
Good luck to your bets tonight! I will be active in X after the Semi - Final to comment on the results.
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